Inge Ekland, a beautiful chambermaid in the High House of the Crown Prince is discovered in bed with him by the Queen who packs her, her husband and the four children off to Liverpool to prevent a royal scandal. The son of the Crown Prince is born halfway across the North Sea. Inge's husband loses all the money given to them by the Queen in a card game on board ship so they land at Liverpool docks homeless and penniless. Ekland goes off to drink in the tavern but Bailey, a hardware/grain store owner comes with a pony and trap looking for some immigrants who failed to show. He takes Inge and the children to his store where she has to cook, clean and work in the hardware store. There are many stories, twists and turns in this tale.
New statistical methods and future directions of research in time series A Course in Time Series Analysis demonstrates how to build time series models for univariate and multivariate time series data. It brings together material previously available only in the professional literature and presents a unified view of the most advanced procedures available for time series model building. The authors begin with basic concepts in univariate time series, providing an up-to-date presentation of ARIMA models, including the Kalman filter, outlier analysis, automatic methods for building ARIMA models, and signal extraction. They then move on to advanced topics, focusing on heteroscedastic models, nonlinear time series models, Bayesian time series analysis, nonparametric time series analysis, and neural networks. Multivariate time series coverage includes presentations on vector ARMA models, cointegration, and multivariate linear systems. Special features include: Contributions from eleven of the worldâ??s leading figures in time series Shared balance between theory and application Exercise series sets Many real data examples Consistent style and clear, common notation in all contributions 60 helpful graphs and tables Requiring no previous knowledge of the subject, A Course in Time Series Analysis is an important reference and a highly useful resource for researchers and practitioners in statistics, economics, business, engineering, and environmental analysis. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in he book is available upon request from the Wiley editorial department.
The retired executive vice president of Walt Disney World believes that having a well-organized system for planning and executing one's goals and dreams is vital. He credits his success to having a strong time management system in place to ensure he would do what he said he would do and keep his promises. The time-management secrets he has developed have become one of his most requested corporate training lectures and are now available in his tell-all guide.
In this absorbing book, renowned psychologist Robert J. Sternberg presents a psychological approach to human relationships that reveals how and why people fall in and out of love. Fascinating reading for anyone who wants to learn more about love, Cupid's Arrow draws on fields ranging from history to cognitive science to folklore, offering a comprehensive account of love in its many forms. Grounded in Sternberg's own 'triangular theory', the book explores the many varieties of love as diffe
Using clear, readable prose, conceptual artist and poet Kenneth Goldsmith’s manifesto shows how our time on the internet is not really wasted but is quite productive and creative as he puts the experience in its proper theoretical and philosophical context. Kenneth Goldsmith wants you to rethink the internet. Many people feel guilty after spending hours watching cat videos or clicking link after link after link. But Goldsmith sees that “wasted” time differently. Unlike old media, the internet demands active engagement—and it’s actually making us more social, more creative, even more productive. When Goldsmith, a renowned conceptual artist and poet, introduced a class at the University of Pennsylvania called “Wasting Time on the Internet”, he nearly broke the internet. The New Yorker, the Atlantic, the Washington Post, Slate, Vice, Time, CNN, the Telegraph, and many more, ran articles expressing their shock, dismay, and, ultimately, their curiosity. Goldsmith’s ideas struck a nerve, because they are brilliantly subversive—and endlessly shareable. In Wasting Time on the Internet, Goldsmith expands upon his provocative insights, contending that our digital lives are remaking human experience. When we’re “wasting time,” we’re actually creating a culture of collaboration. We’re reading and writing more—and quite differently. And we’re turning concepts of authority and authenticity upside-down. The internet puts us in a state between deep focus and subconscious flow, a state that Goldsmith argues is ideal for creativity. Where that creativity takes us will be one of the stories of the twenty-first century. Wide-ranging, counterintuitive, engrossing, unpredictable—like the internet itself—Wasting Time on the Internet is the manifesto you didn’t know you needed.
AP U.S. History Crash Course Achieve a Higher AP Score in Less Time REA’s Crash Course is perfect for the time-crunched student, last-minute studier, or anyone who wants a refresher on the subject! Are you crunched for time? Have you started studying for your AP U.S. History exam yet? How will you memorize all that history before the test? Do you wish there was a fast and easy way to study for the exam AND boost your score? If this sounds like you, don’t panic. REA’s AP U.S. History Crash Course is just what you need. Our Crash Course gives you: Targeted, Focused Review - Study Only What You Need to Know The Crash Course is based on an in-depth analysis of the AP U.S. History course description outline and actual AP test questions. It covers only the information tested on the exam, so you can make the most of your valuable study time. Broken down into major topics and themes, REA gives you two ways to study the material -- chronologically or thematically. Expert Test-taking Strategies Written by an AP teacher who has studied the AP U.S. History Exam for 20 years, the author shares his detailed, question-level strategies and explains the best way to answer the multiple-choice and essay questions. By following his expert advice, you can boost your overall point score! Key Terms You Must Know Mastering AP vocabulary terms is an easy way to boost your score. Our AP expert gives you the key terms all AP U.S. History students must know before test day. Take REA’s FREE Practice Exam After studying the material in the Crash Course, go online and test what you’ve learned. Our full-length practice exam features timed testing, detailed explanations of answers, and automatic scoring. The exam is balanced to include every topic and type of question found on the actual AP exam, so you know you’re studying the smart way! When it’s crucial crunch time and your AP U.S. History exam is just around the corner, you need REA’s AP U.S. History Crash Course!
This edited book draws from work that focuses on the act of telling family stories, as well as their content and structure. The process of telling family stories is linked to central aspects of development, including language acquisition, affect regulation, and family interaction patterns. This book extends across traditional developmental psychology, personality theory, and family studies. Drawing broadly on the epigenetic framework for individual development articulated by Erik Erikson, as well as on conceptions of the family life cycle, the editors bring together contemporary examples of psychological research on family stories and their implications for development and change at different points in the life course. The book is divided into sections that focus on family stories at different points in the life cycle, from early childhood and the beginnings of narrative skill, through adolescence, young adulthood, midlife, and then mature adulthood and its intergenerational meaning. During each of these periods of the life cycle, research focusing on individual development within an Eriksonian framework of ego strengths and virtues is highlighted. The dynamic role of family stories is also featured here, with work exploring the links between family process, intergenerational attachment, and storytelling. Sociocultural theories that emphasize how such development is situated in the wider cultural context are also featured in several chapters. This broad lifespan developmental focus serves to integrate the exciting diversity of this work and foster further questions and research in the emerging field of family narrative. The book is intended primarily for researchers and advanced-level students in the fields of developmental and personality psychology, as well as those in family studies and in gerontology. It may also be of interest to those in the helping professions who are concerned with family therapy and family issues, and may--due to its content and illustrative material--have appeal to a wider market of the lay public. The chapters are written in a readily accessible style and the analyses are presented in a fairly non-technical way. Because family stories are charted across the lifespan, it would be a suitable companion book to a more traditional lifespan textbook in certain courses.
Time Series: A First Course with Bootstrap Starter provides an introductory course on time series analysis that satisfies the triptych of (i) mathematical completeness, (ii) computational illustration and implementation, and (iii) conciseness and accessibility to upper-level undergraduate and M.S. students. Basic theoretical results are presented in a mathematically convincing way, and the methods of data analysis are developed through examples and exercises parsed in R. A student with a basic course in mathematical statistics will learn both how to analyze time series and how to interpret the results. The book provides the foundation of time series methods, including linear filters and a geometric approach to prediction. The important paradigm of ARMA models is studied in-depth, as well as frequency domain methods. Entropy and other information theoretic notions are introduced, with applications to time series modeling. The second half of the book focuses on statistical inference, the fitting of time series models, as well as computational facets of forecasting. Many time series of interest are nonlinear in which case classical inference methods can fail, but bootstrap methods may come to the rescue. Distinctive features of the book are the emphasis on geometric notions and the frequency domain, the discussion of entropy maximization, and a thorough treatment of recent computer-intensive methods for time series such as subsampling and the bootstrap. There are more than 600 exercises, half of which involve R coding and/or data analysis. Supplements include a website with 12 key data sets and all R code for the book's examples, as well as the solutions to exercises.
From the bestselling author of The MAGA Doctrine! Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk shares a vision for America’s future embracing first principles, free markets, and small government. Kirk provides a roadmap on how to return to a free America, with an emphasis on reaching our youth and engaging them in the process. During the 2016 Presidential election cycle, it has become clear that there is growing frustration on the part of many Americans with the general direction of the nation. There has been an abandonment of the principles of free markets and limited government upon which America was founded. We didn't get to this point over just the last eight years and it’s going to take more than one or two election cycles to reverse it. In Time for a Turning Point Charlie Kirk shows exactly what needs to be done and how it needs to be done to restore America's freedom. This is a book of hope, not despair—book of action, not condolences.
