Author: Vasili Rukhadze

Publisher:

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 324

ISBN-13:

This dissertation studies the causes of post-mobilization leadership change and continuity. Using as examples the fall and survival of the post-Color Revolution governments in Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia, the study examines the factors that contribute to post-uprising leadership durability. Using qualitative methods of structured, focused comparison and within case process-tracing, I argue that the key independent variable that influences post-mobilization leadership change and continuity is ruling coalition size and cohesion. I demonstrate that if the ruling coalitions are large and fragmented, as in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, the coalitions disintegrate and their members defect to the opposition, making possible the emergence of active oppositions. Active oppositions then become persistent in destabilizing the new governments. Also, large, fragmented coalitions politicize the issue of the president's executive power, an issue which the reactivated oppositions use to undermine the new leaderships. Moreover, large, fragmented coalitions fail to agree on a reform program, impeding the implementation of reforms. The failure to carry out reforms leads to diminished state capacity and popular support. Overall, active opposition, politicized issue of executive power, and the failed reforms--three intervening variables in this dissertation--contributed to the fall of the post-mobilization leaderships, exemplified by post-Color Revolution Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Alternatively, if the ruling coalition is small and cohesive, as in Georgia, the coalition maintains unity. Without defections from the coalition, the opposition stays inactive and allows the new government to solidify its grip on power. Furthermore, a small, cohesive coalition quickly solves the issue of the president's executive power, thus denying the opposition the chance to politicize this issue and use it to destabilize the leadership. In contrast, a small, cohesive coalition can agree on a reform agenda and enables the leadership to carry out reforms. Successful reforms lead to increased state capacity and strong popular support. Hence the intervening variables, inactive opposition, absence of the issue of executive power, and successful reforms create favorable conditions for the continuity of the post-uprising leadership, as is the case in the post-Color Revolution Georgia. The arguments developed in this dissertation contribute to the theory building on post-mobilization leadership change and continuity.