Oil Price Uncertainty

Oil Price Uncertainty

Author: Apostolos Serletis

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 142

ISBN-13: 9789814390675

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The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price shocks cause recessions in the United States (and other oil-importing countries), and although there exists a vast empirical literature that investigates the effects of oil price shocks, there are relatively few studies that investigate the direct effects of uncertainty about oil prices on the real economy. The book uses recent advances in macroeconomics and financial economics to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity.


Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-05-29

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13: 1513536990

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Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.


How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market

How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market

Author: Nicholas Mangee

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2021-10-14

Total Pages: 451

ISBN-13: 1108983588

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'Animal spirits' is a term that describes the instincts and emotions driving human behaviour in economic settings. In recent years, this concept has been discussed in relation to the emerging field of narrative economics. When unscheduled events hit the stock market, from corporate scandals and technological breakthroughs to recessions and pandemics, relationships driving returns change in unforeseeable ways. To deal with uncertainty, investors engage in narratives which simplify the complexity of real-time, non-routine change. This book assesses the novelty-narrative hypothesis for the U.S. stock market by conducting a comprehensive investigation of unscheduled events using big data textual analysis of financial news. This important contribution to the field of narrative economics finds that major macro events and associated narratives spill over into the churning stream of corporate novelty and sub-narratives, spawning different forms of unforeseeable stock market instability.


Risks

Risks

Author: Mogens Steffensen

Publisher: MDPI

Published: 2021-06-03

Total Pages: 170

ISBN-13: 3036507124

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This book is a collection of feature articles published in Risks in 2020. They were all written by experts in their respective fields. In these articles, they all develop and present new aspects and insights that can help us to understand and cope with the different and ever-changing aspects of risks. In some of the feature articles the probabilistic risk modeling is the central focus, whereas impact and innovation, in the context of financial economics and actuarial science, is somewhat retained and left for future research. In other articles it is the other way around. Ideas and perceptions in financial markets are the driving force of the research but they do not necessarily rely on innovation in the underlying risk models. Together, they are state-of-the-art, expert-led, up-to-date contributions, demonstrating what Risks is and what Risks has to offer: articles that focus on the central aspects of insurance and financial risk management, that detail progress and paths of further development in understanding and dealing with...risks. Asking the same type of questions (which risk allocation and mitigation should be provided, and why?) creates value from three different perspectives: the normative perspective of market regulator; the existential perspective of the financial institution; the phenomenological perspective of the individual consumer or policy holder.


Stock Market Volatility

Stock Market Volatility

Author: Greg N. Gregoriou

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2009-04-08

Total Pages: 654

ISBN-13: 1420099558

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Up-to-Date Research Sheds New Light on This Area Taking into account the ongoing worldwide financial crisis, Stock Market Volatility provides insight to better understand volatility in various stock markets. This timely volume is one of the first to draw on a range of international authorities who offer their expertise on market volatility in devel


New Topics in Emerging Markets

New Topics in Emerging Markets

Author:

Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand

Published: 2024-01-24

Total Pages: 332

ISBN-13: 1837691320

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Unlock the future of global economics and business with New Topics in Emerging Markets. This captivating edited volume is your gateway to understanding the dynamic forces shaping economies on the rise. Delve into critical themes like financial resilience in times of crisis, the impact of technology in Sub-Saharan Africa, the evolving landscape of education in the metaverse, and much more. With diverse insights from leading minds, this book explores the intricacies of banking, innovation ecosystems, leadership in sports, and the ever-changing realm of e-commerce in a Web3 world. Gain a deeper understanding of emerging markets and their pivotal role in the global landscape. Whether you are a seasoned expert or just starting your journey in economics and business, this book offers a thought-provoking and accessible exploration of the challenges and opportunities that define the future. Don’t miss your chance to stay ahead of the curve – grab your copy today and embark on a journey into the heart of emerging markets.


Financial Econometrics

Financial Econometrics

Author: Yiu-Kuen Tse

Publisher: MDPI

Published: 2019-10-14

Total Pages: 136

ISBN-13: 3039216260

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Financial econometrics has developed into a very fruitful and vibrant research area in the last two decades. The availability of good data promotes research in this area, specially aided by online data and high-frequency data. These two characteristics of financial data also create challenges for researchers that are different from classical macro-econometric and micro-econometric problems. This Special Issue is dedicated to research topics that are relevant for analyzing financial data. We have gathered six articles under this theme.


Uncertainty and Unemployment

Uncertainty and Unemployment

Author: Sangyup Choi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-02-23

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1498356303

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We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.


Advances in Futures and Options Research

Advances in Futures and Options Research

Author: Phelim P. Boyle

Publisher: JAI Press Incorporated

Published: 1999-11-22

Total Pages: 280

ISBN-13: 9780762303267

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Part of a series which focuses on advances in futures and options research, this title discusses a variety of topics in the field.


Swing Pricing and Fragility in Open-end Mutual Funds

Swing Pricing and Fragility in Open-end Mutual Funds

Author: Dunhong Jin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-11-01

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 1513519492

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How to prevent runs on open-end mutual funds? In recent years, markets have observed an innovation that changed the way open-end funds are priced. Alternative pricing rules (known as swing pricing) adjust funds’ net asset values to pass on funds’ trading costs to transacting shareholders. Using unique data on investor transactions in U.K. corporate bond funds, we show that swing pricing eliminates the first-mover advantage arising from the traditional pricing rule and significantly reduces redemptions during stress periods. The positive impact of alternative pricing rules on fund flows reverses in calm periods when costs associated with higher tracking error dominate the pricing effect.