The agricultural sector as an alternative to illegal mining in Peru
The agricultural sector as an alternative to illegal mining in Peru

Author: Piñeiro, Valeria

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-12-09

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

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Gold mining is the main economic activity in Madre de Dios, Peru. Despite efforts, the state has not yet managed to identify a formalization process achievable for small operators. In addition, many small-scale miners are driven by poverty and need income to provide for their basic needs. Because participation in small-scale mining is largely driven by poverty, it is likely that, in the longer term, much artisanal mining activity will disappear naturally if, through economic development, more attractive work options become available. This paper reviews the importance of illegal mining in Madre de Dios and the potential for development of the agriculture sector. It also analyzes three different policy scenarios: (1) government spending to rectify the environmental damage in the region caused by illegal mining, (2) development of the agricultural sector in the region, and (3) a final scenario with both environmental restoration and agricultural development. Results show that additional government spending in Madre de Dios does not significantly affect the rest of the country and that investment in agriculture can achieve structural change in the gross domestic product of Madre de Dios. Development of the agricultural sector also slightly increases household incomes in Madre de Dios.

Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models
Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models

Author: Mary E. Burfisher

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2017-02-01

Total Pages: 443

ISBN-13: 1316889378

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This book provides an accessible, undergraduate-level introduction to computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, a class of model that has come to play an important role in government policy decisions. The book uses a graphical approach to explain the economic theory that underlies a CGE model, and provides results from simple, small-scale CGE models to illustrate the links between theory and model outcomes. The book includes eleven guided, hands-on exercises that introduce modeling techniques that are applied to real-world economic problems. Students will learn how to integrate their separate fields of economic study into a comprehensive, general equilibrium perspective as they develop their skills as producers or consumers of CGE-based analysis.

Economic transformation in Africa from the bottom up: Evidence from Tanzania
Economic transformation in Africa from the bottom up: Evidence from Tanzania

Author: Diao, Xinshen

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2017-02-03

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13:

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At roughly 4 percent per year, labor productivity in Tanzania has grown more rapidly over the past 14 years than at any other time in recent history. Employment growth has also been strong, keeping up with population growth at roughly 2.5 percent per year; the bulk of employment growth (90 percent) has been in the nonagricultural sector. However, the vast majority of this nonagricultural employment growth has occurred in informal sector. Using Tanzania’s first nationally representative survey of micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises, this paper shows that firms in the informal sector contributed roughly half a percentage point to economywide labor productivity growth in Tanzania between 2002 and 2012. However, virtually all of the labor productivity growth contributed by informal firms came from a small subset of firms called the “in-between firms.” This paper considers attributes of the in-between firms that could be used for targeting financial and business services to firms with the potential to grow. This paper finds two salient characteristics of in-between firms that might lend themselves to targeting—their owners are more likely to keep written accounts and more likely to keep their savings in formal bank accounts.

The impact of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme on the nutritional status of children: 2008–2012
The impact of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme on the nutritional status of children: 2008–2012

Author: Berhane, Guush

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2017-02-03

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13:

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Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) is a large-scale social protection intervention aimed at improving food security and stabilizing asset levels. The PSNP contains a mix of public works employment and unconditional transfers. It is a well-targeted program; however, several years passed before payment levels reached the intended amounts. The PSNP has been successful in improving household food security. However, children’s nutritional status in the localities where the PSNP operates is poor, with 48 percent of children stunted in 2012. This leads to the question of whether the PSNP could improve child nutrition. In this paper, we examine the impact of the PSNP on children’s nutritional status over the period 2008–2012. Doing so requires paying particular attention to the targeting of the PSNP and how payment levels have evolved over time. Using inverse-probability-weighted regression-adjustment estimators, we find no evidence that the PSNP reduces either chronic undernutrition (height-for-age z-scores, stunting) or acute undernutrition (weight-for-height z-scores, wasting). While we cannot definitively identify the reason for this nonresult, we note that child diet quality is poor. We find no evidence that the PSNP improves child consumption of pulses, oils, fruits, vegetables, dairy products, or animal-source proteins. Most mothers have not had contact with health extension workers nor have they received information on good feeding practices. Water practices, as captured by the likelihood that mothers boil drinking water, are poor. These findings, along with work by other researchers, have informed revisions to the PSNP. Future research will assess whether these revisions have led to improvements in the diets and anthropometric status of preschool children in Ethiopia.

Nepal’s 2072 federal constitution: Implications for the governance of the agricultural sector
Nepal’s 2072 federal constitution: Implications for the governance of the agricultural sector

Author: Kyle, Jordan

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-12-22

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13:

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In this paper we explore the implications of Nepal’s new federal Constitution—passed in September 2015—for governance of the agricultural sector. Agriculture is the backbone of the Nepali economy, providing a livelihood for approximately two-thirds of the population, contributing one-third of the country’s GDP, and constituting more than half of the country’s exports. In transitioning from a unitary to a federal republic—with greater authority and autonomy granted to subnational units of government—it is of paramount importance to ensure that the agricultural sector is guided by coordinated planning, retains sufficient human capacity, and receives adequate fiscal resources. These considerations are particularly important given that the governance of Nepal’s agricultural sector already suffers from poor coordination, low human resources capacity, and inadequate financial resources. Addressing these issues may become more difficult under a federal structure. This paper begins by laying out the main challenges for agricultural governance in Nepal under the current structure. To do so, it relies on an original survey of 100 district agricultural and livestock officers in charge of local agricultural service delivery in Nepal as well as perspectives collected through more than two dozen semi-structured interviews with officials from the Ministry of Agricultural Development, the Ministry of Livestock Development, civil society, the private sector, and donors. Because Nepal is embarking on a pathway to more decentralized governance, which has been well-trodden by a number of other countries, the paper proceeds by examining five case studies, drawing lessons from India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, and South Africa. Based on these analyses, the paper offers policy recommendations on how the sector can be restructured to meet the constitutional provisions, while simultaneously ensuring that the government can deliver on its long-term objectives to develop the agricultural sector.

Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation in the Republic of Korea to 2050
Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation in the Republic of Korea to 2050

Author: Cenacchi, Nicola

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-12-16

Total Pages: 92

ISBN-13:

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As the effects of climate change set in, and population and income growth exert increasing pressure on natural resources, food security is becoming a pressing challenge for countries worldwide. Awareness of these threats is critical to transforming concern into long-term planning, and modeling tools like the one used in the present study are beneficial for strategic support of decision making in the agricultural policy arena. The focus of this investigation is the Republic of Korea, where economic growth has resulted in large shifts in diet in recent decades, in parallel with a decline in both arable land and agricultural production, and a tripling of agricultural imports, compared to the early 2000s. Although these are recognized as traits of a rapidly growing economy, officials and experts in the country recognize that the trends expose the Republic of Korea to climate change shocks and fluctuations in the global food market. This study uses the IMPACT (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade) economic model to investigate possible future trends of both domestic food production and dependence on food imports, as well as the effects from adoption of agricultural practices consistent with a climate change adaptation strategy. The goal is to help assess the prospects for sustaining improvements in food security and possibly inform the national debate on agricultural policy. Results show that historical trends of harvested area and imports may continue into the future under climate change. Although crop models suggest negative long-term impacts of climate change on rice yield in the Republic of Korea, the economic model simulations show that intrinsic productivity growth and market effects have the potential to limit the magnitude of losses; rice production and yield are projected to keep growing between 2010 and 2050, with a larger boost when adoption of improved technologies is taken into consideration. At the same time, food production and net exports from the country’s major trading partners are also projected to increase, although diminished by climate change effects. In sum, these results show that kilocalorie availability will keep growing in the Republic of Korea, and although climate change may have some impact by reducing the overall availability, the effect does not appear strong enough to have significant consequences on projected trends of increasing food security.

Global Gold Production Touching Ground
Global Gold Production Touching Ground

Author: Boris Verbrugge

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-05-04

Total Pages: 382

ISBN-13: 3030384861

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In recent decades, gold mining has moved into increasingly remote corners of the globe. Aside from the expansion of industrial gold mining, many countries have simultaneously witnessed an expansion of labor-intensive and predominantly informal artisanal and small-scale gold mining. Both trends are usually studied in isolation, which contributes to a dominant image of a dual gold mining economy. Counteracting this dominant view, this volume adopts a global perspective, and demonstrates that both industrial gold mining and artisanal and small-scale gold mining are functionally integrated into a global gold production system. It couples an analysis of structural trends in global gold production (expansion, informalization, and technological innovation) to twelve country case studies that detail how global gold production becomes embedded in institutional and ecological structures.

External shocks, food security, and development
External shocks, food security, and development

Author: Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-12-23

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

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We conduct an ex ante evaluation of the impacts of a potential global recession within the next years and the possible policy responses to support economic activity and improve social indicators in five Central American countries: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We review the economic and social evolution of the past decades in those countries, and we consider a global scenario that includes further deceleration of world growth, lower commodity prices, and a decline in remittances and capital flows to those countries. We simulate those scenarios and related policy issues using recursive dynamic CGE models for the countries considered. The global shock is run under fixed exchange rates and flexible exchange rates (in the case of El Salvador, which has adopted the US dollar as the domestic currency, the simulation of a flexible exchange rate is just indicative). In all cases, a flexible exchange rate delivers better results in terms of GDP per capita, by softening the overall economic impact of the external shocks. Two possible interventions to deal with the recession are simulated: one focuses on policies to strengthen the safety net for the poor; the other applies a more general macroeconomic stimulus (a tax cut plus a modest increase in public investments, financed by un-conventional monetary policy) to try to cushion the shock. For all countries except El Salvador, these two simulations are run with a flexible exchange rate. In the first policy simulation GDP per capita in those countries does not change much, but the poor groups targeted clearly improve their incomes and consumption, helping them the most during the years of the negative shocks. In the second simulation, the macroeconomic stimulus improves the performance of the economies, allowing GDP per capita to be higher than in the case of the shock alone. In summary, facing a potential global downturn as the one simulated here, those countries that have flexible exchange rates and the use of domestic monetary policies can use a mix of adjustment in exchange rates combined with targeted poverty transfers and macroeconomic stimulus to alleviate the shock. El Salvador, which does not have the exchange rate and monetary instruments, will require further support from multilateral and bilateral sources to soften the shock

The changing structure of Africa’s economies
The changing structure of Africa’s economies

Author: Diao, Xinshen

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2017-01-13

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13:

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In recent years, some counties in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) have experienced growth in their economies and improvements in living standards. Although there is some debate, it is clear that the share of the population living below the poverty line fell significantly over the past decade and a half; there has been a general decline in infant mortality rates and increased access to education; in some of the fastest-growing economies, average growth rates have been positive for the first time in decades; and since the early 1990s, real consumption in SSA has grown between 3.4 and 3.7 percent per year. The reasons behind this so-called “African growth miracle” are not well understood, and to our knowledge, this paper is the first to connect these improvements in living standards to important occupational changes. Using data from the Groningen Growth and Development Center’s Africa Sector Database and the Demographic and Health Surveys, we show that much of SSA’s recent growth and poverty reduction has been associated with a substantive decline in the share of the labor force engaged in agriculture. This decline is most pronounced for rural females over the age of 25 who have a primary education. This has been accompanied by a systematic increase in the productivity of the labor force, as it has moved from low productivity agriculture to higher productivity services and manufacturing. We also show that although the employment share in manufacturing is not expanding rapidly, in most of the low-income SSA countries, the employment share in manufacturing has not peaked and is still expanding, albeit from very low levels. Although these patterns are encouraging, more work is needed to understand the implications of these shifts in employment shares for future growth and development in SSA.

The effect of land inheritance on youth employment and migration decisions: Evidence from rural Ethiopia
The effect of land inheritance on youth employment and migration decisions: Evidence from rural Ethiopia

Author: Kosec, Katrina

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-12-29

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13:

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How does the amount of land youth expect to inherit affect their migration and employment decisions? This paper explores this question in the context of rural Ethiopia using panel data from 2010 and 2014. We estimate a household fixed-effects model and exploit exogenous variation in the timing of land redistributions to overcome endogenous household decisions about how much land to bequeath to descendants. We find that larger expected land inheritances significantly lower the likelihood of long-distance permanent migration and of permanent migration to urban areas during this time. Inheriting more land is also associated with a significantly higher likelihood of employment in agriculture and a lower likelihood of employment in the nonagricultural sector. Conversely, the decision to attend school is unaffected. These results appear to be most heavily driven by males and by the older half of our youth sample. We also find several mediating factors matter. Land inheritance plays a much more pronounced role in predicting rural-to-urban permanent migration and nonagricultural-sector employment in areas with less vibrant land markets and in relatively remote areas (those far from major urban centers). Overall, the results suggest that inheritance strongly influences the spatial location and strategic employment decisions of youth.