Stochastic Volatility and Time Deformation
Stochastic Volatility and Time Deformation

Author: Joann Jasiak

Publisher:

Published: 2012

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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In this paper, we study stochastic volatility models with time deformation. Such processes relate to the early work by Mandelbrot and Taylor (1967), Clark (1973), Tauchen and Pitts (1983), among others. In our setup, the latent process of stochastic volatility evolves in an operational time which differs from calendar time. The time deformation can be determined by past volume of trade, past returns, possibly with an asymmetric leverage effect, and other variables setting the pace of information arrival. The econometric specification exploits the state-space approach for stochastic volatility models proposed by Harvey, Ruiz and Shephard (1994) as well as the matching moment estimation procedure using SNP densities of stock returns and trading volume estimated by Gallant, Rossi and Tauchen (1992). Daily data on returns and trading volume of the NYSE are used in the empirical application. Supporting evidence for a time deformation representation is found and its impact on the behavior of returns and volume is analyzed. We find that increases in volume accelerate operational time, resulting in volatility being less persistent and subject to shocks with a higher innovation variance. Downward price movements have similar effects while upward price movements increase the persistence in volatility and decrease the dispersion of shocks by slowing down market time. We present the basic model as well as several extensions; in particular, we formulate and estimate a bivariate return-volume stochastic volatility model with time deformation. The latter is examined through bivariate impulse response profiles following the example of Gallant, Rossi and Tauchen (1993).

Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications
Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications

Author: Luc Bauwens

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2012-03-22

Total Pages: 566

ISBN-13: 1118272056

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A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Multifractal Volatility
Multifractal Volatility

Author: Laurent E. Calvet

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 2008-10-13

Total Pages: 273

ISBN-13: 0080559964

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Calvet and Fisher present a powerful, new technique for volatility forecasting that draws on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics and provides a unified treatment of the use of multifractal techniques in finance. A large existing literature (e.g., Engle, 1982; Rossi, 1995) models volatility as an average of past shocks, possibly with a noise component. This approach often has difficulty capturing sharp discontinuities and large changes in financial volatility. Their research has shown the advantages of modelling volatility as subject to abrupt regime changes of heterogeneous durations. Using the intuition that some economic phenomena are long-lasting while others are more transient, they permit regimes to have varying degrees of persistence. By drawing on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics, they show how to construct high-dimensional regime-switching models that are easy to estimate, and substantially outperform some of the best traditional forecasting models such as GARCH. The goal of Multifractal Volatility is to popularize the approach by presenting these exciting new developments to a wider audience. They emphasize both theoretical and empirical applications, beginning with a style that is easily accessible and intuitive in early chapters, and extending to the most rigorous continuous-time and equilibrium pricing formulations in final chapters. - Presents a powerful new technique for forecasting volatility - Leads the reader intuitively from existing volatility techniques to the frontier of research in this field by top scholars at major universities - The first comprehensive book on multifractal techniques in finance, a cutting-edge field of research

The Complex Dynamics of Economic Interaction
The Complex Dynamics of Economic Interaction

Author: Mauro Gallegati

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 404

ISBN-13: 3642170455

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The economy is examined by the authors as a complex interactive system. The emphasis is on the direct interaction between agents rather than on the indirect and autonomous interaction through the market mechanism. Contributions from economists and physicists emphasise the consequences for aggregate behaviour of the interaction between agents with limited rationality. Models of financial markets which exhibit many of the stylised facts of empirical markets such as bubbles, herd behaviour and long memory are presented. This includes contributions on bargaining, buyer-seller relations, the evolution of economic networks and several aspects of macro-economic behaviour. This book will be of interest to all those interested in the foundations of collective social and economic behaviour and in particular, to those concerned with the dynamics of market behaviour and recent applications of physics to economics.

Return Distributions in Finance
Return Distributions in Finance

Author: Stephen Satchell

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2000-12-08

Total Pages: 329

ISBN-13: 0080516246

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Quantitative methods have revolutionised the area of trading, regulation, risk management, portfolio construction, asset pricing and treasury activities, and governmental activity such as central banking. One of the original contributions in this area is the classic by Cootner entitled 'The Random Nature of Stock Market Prices'. This work investigated the statistical properties of asset prices and was one of the first works to investigate this area in a rigorous manner. Much has happened in this field in the last 35 years and 'Return Distributions in Finance' contains much new information that reflects this huge growth. The authors combined experience reflects not only the new theory but also the new practice in this fascinating area. The rise of financial engineering now allows us to change the nature of asset returns to whatever pattern we desire, albeit at a cost. Benefits and costs can only be understood if we understand the underlying processes. 'Return Distributions in Finance' allows us to gain that understanding. - Assists in understanding asset return distributions - Provides a full overview of financial risk management techniques in asset allocation - Demonstrates how to use asset return forecast applications

Understanding Volatility and Liquidity in the Financial Markets
Understanding Volatility and Liquidity in the Financial Markets

Author: Dimitris N. Chorafas

Publisher: Euromoney Publications

Published: 1998

Total Pages: 252

ISBN-13:

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This title is useful reading for anyone responsible for minimizing exposures and failures within their organization, as well as financial professionals working to produce models of risk and reward. It goes beyond the issues of volatility and liquidity, leading towards a system of risk management.

Modeling and Pricing of Swaps for Financial and Energy Markets with Stochastic Volatilities
Modeling and Pricing of Swaps for Financial and Energy Markets with Stochastic Volatilities

Author: Anatoli? Vital?evich Svishchuk

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 326

ISBN-13: 9814440132

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Modeling and Pricing of Swaps for Financial and Energy Markets with Stochastic Volatilities is devoted to the modeling and pricing of various kinds of swaps, such as those for variance, volatility, covariance, correlation, for financial and energy markets with different stochastic volatilities, which include CIR process, regime-switching, delayed, mean-reverting, multi-factor, fractional, Levy-based, semi-Markov and COGARCH(1,1). One of the main methods used in this book is change of time method. The book outlines how the change of time method works for different kinds of models and problems arising in financial and energy markets and the associated problems in modeling and pricing of a variety of swaps. The book also contains a study of a new model, the delayed Heston model, which improves the volatility surface fitting as compared with the classical Heston model. The author calculates variance and volatility swaps for this model and provides hedging techniques. The book considers content on the pricing of variance and volatility swaps and option pricing formula for mean-reverting models in energy markets. Some topics such as forward and futures in energy markets priced by multi-factor Levy models and generalization of Black-76 formula with Markov-modulated volatility are part of the book as well, and it includes many numerical examples such as S&P60 Canada Index, S&P500 Index and AECO Natural Gas Index.

The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets
The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets

Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2009-05-15

Total Pages: 358

ISBN-13: 0226260232

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The foreign exchange market is the largest, fastest-growing financial market in the world. Yet conventional macroeconomic approaches do not explain why people trade foreign exchange. At the same time, they fail to explain the short-run determinants of the exchange rate. These nine innovative essays use a microstructure approach to analyze the workings of the foreign exchange market, with special emphasis on institutional aspects and the actual behavior of market participants. They examine the volume of transactions, heterogeneity of traders, the time of day and location of trading, the bid-ask spread, and the high level of exchange rate volatility that has puzzled many observers. They also consider the structure of the market, including such issues as nontransparency, asymmetric information, liquidity trading, the use of automated brokers, the relationship between spot and derivative markets, and the importance of systemic risk in the market. This timely volume will be essential reading for anyone interested in the economics of international finance.

An Introduction to High-Frequency Finance
An Introduction to High-Frequency Finance

Author: Ramazan Gençay

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2001-05-29

Total Pages: 411

ISBN-13: 008049904X

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Liquid markets generate hundreds or thousands of ticks (the minimum change in price a security can have, either up or down) every business day. Data vendors such as Reuters transmit more than 275,000 prices per day for foreign exchange spot rates alone. Thus, high-frequency data can be a fundamental object of study, as traders make decisions by observing high-frequency or tick-by-tick data. Yet most studies published in financial literature deal with low frequency, regularly spaced data. For a variety of reasons, high-frequency data are becoming a way for understanding market microstructure. This book discusses the best mathematical models and tools for dealing with such vast amounts of data.This book provides a framework for the analysis, modeling, and inference of high frequency financial time series. With particular emphasis on foreign exchange markets, as well as currency, interest rate, and bond futures markets, this unified view of high frequency time series methods investigates the price formation process and concludes by reviewing techniques for constructing systematic trading models for financial assets.

Advances in Time Series Methods and Applications
Advances in Time Series Methods and Applications

Author: Wai Keung Li

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-12-02

Total Pages: 298

ISBN-13: 1493965689

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This volume reviews and summarizes some of A. I. McLeod's significant contributions to time series analysis. It also contains original contributions to the field and to related areas by participants of the festschrift held in June 2014 and friends of Dr. McLeod. Covering a diverse range of state-of-the-art topics, this volume well balances applied and theoretical research across fourteen contributions by experts in the field. It will be of interest to researchers and practitioners in time series, econometricians, and graduate students in time series or econometrics, as well as environmental statisticians, data scientists, statisticians interested in graphical models, and researchers in quantitative risk management.