With the realization that many clues and hints preceded the September 11 terrorist attacks, statisticians became an important part of the global war on terror. This book surveys emerging research at the intersection of national security and statistical sciences. In it, a diverse group of talented researchers address such topics as Syndromic Surveillance; Modeling and Simulation; Biometric Authentication; and Game Theory. The book includes general reviews of quantitative approaches to counterterrorism, for decision makers with policy backgrounds, as well as technical treatments of statistical issues that will appeal to quantitative researchers.
With the realization that many clues and hints preceded the September 11 terrorist attacks, statisticians became an important part of the global war on terror. This book surveys emerging research at the intersection of national security and statistical sciences. In it, a diverse group of talented researchers address such topics as Syndromic Surveillance; Modeling and Simulation; Biometric Authentication; and Game Theory. The book includes general reviews of quantitative approaches to counterterrorism, for decision makers with policy backgrounds, as well as technical treatments of statistical issues that will appeal to quantitative researchers.
Terrorism is one of the serious threats to international peace and security that we face in this decade. No nation can consider itself immune from the dangers it poses, and no society can remain disengaged from the efforts to combat it. The termcounterterrorism refers to the techniques, strategies, and tactics used in the ?ght against terrorism. Counterterrorism efforts involve many segments of so- ety, especially governmental agencies including the police, military, and intelligence agencies (both domestic and international). The goal of counterterrorism efforts is to not only detect and prevent potential future acts but also to assist in the response to events that have already occurred. A terrorist cell usually forms very quietly and then grows in a pattern – sp- ning international borders, oceans, and hemispheres. Surprising to many, an eff- tive “weapon”, just as quiet – mathematics – can serve as a powerful tool to combat terrorism, providing the ability to connect the dots and reveal the organizational pattern of something so sinister. The events of 9/11 instantly changed perceptions of the wordsterrorist andn- work, especially in the United States. The international community was confronted with the need to tackle a threat which was not con?ned to a discreet physical - cation. This is a particular challenge to the standard instruments for projecting the legal authority of states and their power to uphold public safety. As demonstrated by the events of the 9/11 attack, we know that terrorist attacks can happen anywhere.
All U.S. agencies with counterterrorism programs that collect or "mine" personal data-such as phone records or Web sites visited-should be required to evaluate the programs' effectiveness, lawfulness, and impacts on privacy. A framework is offered that agencies can use to evaluate such information-based programs, both classified and unclassified. The book urges Congress to re-examine existing privacy law to assess how privacy can be protected in current and future programs and recommends that any individuals harmed by violations of privacy be given a meaningful form of redress. Two specific technologies are examined: data mining and behavioral surveillance. Regarding data mining, the book concludes that although these methods have been useful in the private sector for spotting consumer fraud, they are less helpful for counterterrorism because so little is known about what patterns indicate terrorist activity. Regarding behavioral surveillance in a counterterrorist context, the book concludes that although research and development on certain aspects of this topic are warranted, there is no scientific consensus on whether these techniques are ready for operational use at all in counterterrorism.
This document is a preliminary report on the role that mathematical and statistical methods might play in the defense against terrorist attacks. In no way does this replace the efforts of law enforcement agencies or intelligence activities. The hope is that mathematical techniques can make their efforts more efficient. The ideas enumerated here utilize the notion of Probabilistic Risk Analysis, which was developed for the purpose of assessing the safety of nuclear reactors, as well as randomization and game theory. More extensive work in these directions is contemplated for the future. The author is planning workshops to evaluate the ideas presented here and to elicit additional methodologies which may prove useful in this endeavor.
What is terrorism? What can we learn and what cannot we learn from terrorism data? What are the perspectives and limitations of the analysis of terrorism data? Over the last decade, scholars have generated unprecedented insight from the statistical analysis of ever-growing databases on terrorism. Yet their findings have not reached the public. This book translates the current state of knowledge on global patterns of terrorism free of unnecessary jargon. Readers will be gradually introduced to statistical reasoning and tools applied to critically analyze terrorism data within a rigorous framework. Debunking Seven Terrorism Myths Using Statistics communicates evidence-based research work on terrorism to a general audience. It describes key statistics that provide an overview of the extent and magnitude of terrorist events perpetrated by actors independent of state governments across the world. The books brings a coherent and rigorous methodological framework to address issues stemming from the statistical analysis of terrorism data and its interpretations. Features Uses statistical reasoning to identify and address seven major misconceptions about terrorism. Discusses the implications of major issues about terrorism data on the interpretation of its statistical analysis. Gradually introduces the complexity of statistical methods to familiarize the non-statistician reader with important statistical concepts to analyze data. Use illustrated examples to help the reader develop a critical approach applied to the quantitative analysis of terrorism data. Includes chapters focusing on major aspects of terrorism: definitional issues, lethality, geography, temporal and spatial patterns, and the predictive ability of models.
Highly readable with a rich quantitative analysis of the largest ever terrorism database constructed for the period 1992-2004, the results of the study are fascinating and have important implications for current U.S. foreign policy in the Global War on Terrorism. The author has painstakingly examined, with precise numbers, the impact of the use of preemptive force in the War on Terrorism in a way that has never been done before. This is the first publication showcasing compelling data on the impact of the current war on terrorism on the level, lethality and frequency of transnational terrorist activity around the globe. With extremely current data, When Terrorism and Counterterrorism Clash is a critical reference to all in the fields of international relations and political science. "This is the most compelling, provocative, and sophisticated empirical study I've seen of the Global War on Terrorism. It is essential reading for policymakers and scholars and couldn't come at a more critical time." -John N. Paden, Ph.D., Clarence Robinson Professor of International Studies and Professor of Public and International Affairs, George Mason University "This is exactly what we need to make informed policy decisions." - Alireza Jafarzadeh, Author of The Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the Coming Nuclear Crisis and FOX News Channel Foreign Affairs Analyst "A penetrating analysis with a compelling conclusion!" - Daniel Druckman, Professor of Public and International Affairs, George Mason University and Visiting Scholar, Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
This book is nothing less than a complete and comprehensive survey of the state-of-the-art of terrorism informatics. It covers the application of advanced methodologies and information fusion and analysis. It also lays out techniques to acquire, integrate, process, analyze, and manage the diversity of terrorism-related information for international and homeland security-related applications. The book details three major areas of terrorism research: prevention, detection, and established governmental responses to terrorism. It systematically examines the current and ongoing research, including recent case studies and application of terrorism informatics techniques. The coverage then presents the critical and relevant social/technical areas to terrorism research including social, privacy, data confidentiality, and legal challenges.
The product of painstaking research and countless interviews, A High Price offers a nuanced, definitive historical account of Israel's bold but often failed efforts to fight terrorist groups. Beginning with the violent border disputes that emerged after Israel's founding in 1948, Daniel Byman charts the rise of Yasir Arafat's Fatah and leftist groups such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine--organizations that ushered in the era of international terrorism epitomized by the 1972 hostage-taking at the Munich Olympics. Byman reveals how Israel fought these groups and others, such as Hamas, in the decades that follow, with particular attention to the grinding and painful struggle during the second intifada. Israel's debacles in Lebanon against groups like the Lebanese Hizballah are examined in-depth, as is the country's problematic response to Jewish terrorist groups that have struck at Arabs and Israelis seeking peace. In surveying Israel's response to terror, the author points to the coups of shadowy Israeli intelligence services, the much-emulated use of defensive measures such as sky marshals on airplanes, and the role of controversial techniques such as targeted killings and the security barrier that separates Israel from Palestinian areas. Equally instructive are the shortcomings that have undermined Israel's counterterrorism goals, including a disregard for long-term planning and a failure to recognize the long-term political repercussions of counterterrorism tactics.
This work represents the latest in mathematical and computational techniques to assist in combating terrorist cells. Achieved by quantifying threats and the effectiveness of counterterrorism operations and strategies, contributors share theories and methodologies to generate and analyze terrorist networks and provide mathematical methods and practical algorithms for destabilizing adversaries. New developments include: A new centrality-like measure to screen networks for potential actors of interest; Detection of topological characteristics of these networks to understand structure; Measures based on efficiency of networks to identify key players; Theories to detect command structures of networks by detecting hidden hierarchies; A knowledge base of the terrorist attacks in / planned in the past, by spidering data. Results of command structure via new algorithms with SNA literature (N-Clique, K-Core, etc.) are compared. The best techniques are combined to assist intelligence agencies / law enforcement.
