Earthquakes
Earthquakes

Author: Yan Y. Kagan

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2013-12-18

Total Pages: 358

ISBN-13: 1118637895

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This book is the first comprehensive and methodologically rigorous analysis of earthquake occurrence. Models based on the theory of the stochastic multidimensional point processes are employed to approximate the earthquake occurrence pattern and evaluate its parameters. The Author shows that most of these parameters have universal values. These results help explain the classical earthquake distributions: Omori's law and the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The Author derives a new negative-binomial distribution for earthquake numbers, instead of the Poisson distribution, and then determines a fractal correlation dimension for spatial distributions of earthquake hypocenters. The book also investigates the disorientation of earthquake focal mechanisms and shows that it follows the rotational Cauchy distribution. These statistical and mathematical advances make it possible to produce quantitative forecasts of earthquake occurrence. In these forecasts earthquake rate in time, space, and focal mechanism orientation is evaluated.

Seismicity Patterns, their Statistical Significance and Physical Meaning
Seismicity Patterns, their Statistical Significance and Physical Meaning

Author: Max Wyss

Publisher: Birkhäuser

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 519

ISBN-13: 3034886772

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204 Pure app!. geophys. , P. Reasenberg demonstrated that in Cascadia earthquakes are four times more likely to be foreshocks than in California. Many speakers emphasized the regional differences in all earthquake parameters, and it was generally understood that basic models of the earthquake occurrence must be modified for regional application. The idea that the focal mechanisms of foreshocks may differ from that of background activity was advocated by Y. Chen and identified by M. Ohtake as possibly the thus far most neglected property of foreshocks, in efforts to identify them. S. Matsumura proposed that focal mechanism patterns of small earthquakes may differ character istically near locked fault segments into which fault creep is advancing. Considerable discussion was devoted to the status of the seismic gap hypothesis because M. Wyss argued that the occurrence of the M 7. 9, 1986, Andreanof Islands earthquake was a confirmation of Reid's rebound theory of earthquakes and thus of the time predictable version of the gap hypothesis, whereas Y. Kagan believed he could negate this view by presenting a list of nine earthquake pairs with M> 7. 4, moment centroid separation of less than 100 km, and time difference less than about 60% of the time he estimated it would take plate motions to restore the slip of the first event.

Estimation of Spatial-Temporal Hawkes Models for Earthquake Occurrences
Estimation of Spatial-Temporal Hawkes Models for Earthquake Occurrences

Author: James Molyneux

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 92

ISBN-13:

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Point processes have long been used as an effective modeling technique in the forecasting of earthquakes. In this dissertation, we evaluate the ability of earthquake focal mechanisms to predict the locational direction of future events and the usefulness of more complicated point process models including such covariates. We also introduce a new computational method for estimating parameters of point processes models using the Stoyan-Grabarnik estimator which avoids the need to numerically compute the intractable integral term needed to compute estimates via maximum likelihood.

Earthquake Occurrence
Earthquake Occurrence

Author: Rodolfo Console

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2017-08-07

Total Pages: 166

ISBN-13: 1786301245

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Earthquake Occurrence provides the reader with a review of algorithms applicable for modeling seismicity, such as short-term earthquake clustering and pseudo-periodic long-term behavior of major earthquakes. The concept of the likelihood ratio of a set of observations under different hypotheses is applied for comparison among various models. In short-term models, known by the term ETAS, the occurrence space and time rate density of earthquakes is modeled as the sum of two terms, one representing the independent or spontaneous events, and the other representing the activity triggered by previous earthquakes. Examples of the application of such algorithms in real cases are also reported. Dealing with long-term recurrence models, renewal time-dependent models, implying a pseudo-periodicity of earthquake occurrence, are compared with the simple time-independent Poisson model, in which every event occurs regardless of what has occurred in the past. The book also introduces a number of computer codes developed by the authors over decades of seismological research.

Modelling Critical and Catastrophic Phenomena in Geoscience
Modelling Critical and Catastrophic Phenomena in Geoscience

Author: Pratip Bhattacharyya

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2006-09-10

Total Pages: 530

ISBN-13: 3540353755

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This book presents a broad survey of models for critical and catastrophic phenomena in the geosciences, with strong emphasis on earthquakes. It assumes the perspective of statistical physics, which provides the theoretical frame for dealing with complex systems in general. This volume addresses graduate students wishing to specialize in the field and researchers working or interested in the field having a background in the physics, geosciences or applied mathematics.