State and Local Population Projections
State and Local Population Projections

Author: Stanley K. Smith

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2005-12-21

Total Pages: 433

ISBN-13: 0306473720

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The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.

Subnational Population Estimates
Subnational Population Estimates

Author: David A. Swanson

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-05-23

Total Pages: 420

ISBN-13: 9048189543

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Providing a unified and comprehensive treatment of the theory and techniques of sub-national population estimation, this much-needed publication does more than collate disparate source material. It examines hitherto unexplored methodological links between differing types of estimation from both the demographic and sample-survey traditions and is a self-contained primer that combines academic rigor with a wealth of real-world examples that are useful models for demographers. Between censuses, which are expensive, administratively complex, and thus infrequent, demographers and government officials must estimate population using either demographic modeling techniques or statistical surveys that sample a fraction of residents. These estimates play a central role in vital decisions that range from funding allocations and rate-setting to education, health and housing provision. They also provide important data to companies undertaking market research. However, mastering small-area and sub-national population estimation is complicated by scattered, incomplete and outdated academic sources—an issue this volume tackles head-on. Rapidly increasing population mobility is making inter-census estimation ever more important to strategic planners. This book will make the theory and techniques involved more accessible to anyone with an interest in developing or using population estimates.

The Frontiers of Applied Demography
The Frontiers of Applied Demography

Author: David A. Swanson

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-11-11

Total Pages: 519

ISBN-13: 3319433296

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This book details cutting-edge methods and findings that may shape the future of applied demography. Inside, readers will discover new insights into the databases, substantive issues, and methodological approaches that can help them to improve how they use demography in decision making and planning problems in both public and private settings. The topics and perspectives are found in the book’s 23 chapters, which are organized into three major sections: (I) Demographic Information for Decision-Making: Case Studies; (II) Data: Issues and Analyses; and (III) Projection and Estimation Methods: Evaluations, Examples, and Discussions. Coverage includes chapters on migration, demographic market analysis, future courtroom needs, trends in the needs of the elderly, access to health care, longitudinal data systems, census costs, and new approaches to small area estimation and projection methods. The case studies represent a wide range of countries, including Australia, Canada, China, England, India, Japan, and the United States of America. Overall, this edited volume collects papers that were presented at different conferences, including the 8th international conference on population geographies (University of Queensland, 2015), the 2014 Applied Demography Conference (San Antonio, Texas, USA), and the annual conference of the Canadian Population Society. Applied demography touches many aspects of our lives and its practitioners continue to push methodological and empirical boundaries. This book documents the steady evolution of this field. It shows demographers, sociologists, economists, planners, marketers, and others how they can improve the quality and relevance of demographic information now and in the future.

Beyond Six Billion
Beyond Six Billion

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2000-10-11

Total Pages: 369

ISBN-13: 0309069904

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Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting
Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

Author: Tommy Bengtsson

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-03-28

Total Pages: 341

ISBN-13: 3030050750

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This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.

Big Data Meets Survey Science
Big Data Meets Survey Science

Author: Craig A. Hill

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2020-09-29

Total Pages: 784

ISBN-13: 1118976320

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Offers a clear view of the utility and place for survey data within the broader Big Data ecosystem This book presents a collection of snapshots from two sides of the Big Data perspective. It assembles an array of tangible tools, methods, and approaches that illustrate how Big Data sources and methods are being used in the survey and social sciences to improve official statistics and estimates for human populations. It also provides examples of how survey data are being used to evaluate and improve the quality of insights derived from Big Data. Big Data Meets Survey Science: A Collection of Innovative Methods shows how survey data and Big Data are used together for the benefit of one or more sources of data, with numerous chapters providing consistent illustrations and examples of survey data enriching the evaluation of Big Data sources. Examples of how machine learning, data mining, and other data science techniques are inserted into virtually every stage of the survey lifecycle are presented. Topics covered include: Total Error Frameworks for Found Data; Performance and Sensitivities of Home Detection on Mobile Phone Data; Assessing Community Wellbeing Using Google Street View and Satellite Imagery; Using Surveys to Build and Assess RBS Religious Flag; and more. Presents groundbreaking survey methods being utilized today in the field of Big Data Explores how machine learning methods can be applied to the design, collection, and analysis of social science data Filled with examples and illustrations that show how survey data benefits Big Data evaluation Covers methods and applications used in combining Big Data with survey statistics Examines regulations as well as ethical and privacy issues Big Data Meets Survey Science: A Collection of Innovative Methods is an excellent book for both the survey and social science communities as they learn to capitalize on this new revolution. It will also appeal to the broader data and computer science communities looking for new areas of application for emerging methods and data sources.

Demography
Demography

Author: Sarah Harper

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2018-05-11

Total Pages: 158

ISBN-13: 0191038687

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The generation into which each person is born, the demographic composition of that cohort, and its relation to those born at the same time in other places influences not only a person's life chances, but also the economic and political structures within which that life is lived; the person's access to social and natural resources (food, water, education, jobs, sexual partners); and even the length of that person's life. Demography, literally the study of people, addresses the size, distribution, composition, and density of populations, and considers the impact the drivers which mediate these will have on both individual lives and the changing structure of human populations. This Very Short Introduction considers the way in which the global population has evolved over time and space. Sarah Harper discusses the theorists, theories, and methods involved in studying population trends and movements, before looking at the emergence of new demographic sub-disciplines and addressing some of the future population challenges of the 21st century. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

Developments in Demographic Forecasting
Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Author: Stefano Mazzuco

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-09-28

Total Pages: 261

ISBN-13: 3030424723

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This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Using Science to Improve the BLM Wild Horse and Burro Program
Using Science to Improve the BLM Wild Horse and Burro Program

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2013-10-04

Total Pages: 399

ISBN-13: 0309264944

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Using Science to Improve the BLM Wild Horse and Burro Program: A Way Forward reviews the science that underpins the Bureau of Land Management's oversight of free-ranging horses and burros on federal public lands in the western United States, concluding that constructive changes could be implemented. The Wild Horse and Burro Program has not used scientifically rigorous methods to estimate the population sizes of horses and burros, to model the effects of management actions on the animals, or to assess the availability and use of forage on rangelands. Evidence suggests that horse populations are growing by 15 to 20 percent each year, a level that is unsustainable for maintaining healthy horse populations as well as healthy ecosystems. Promising fertility-control methods are available to help limit this population growth, however. In addition, science-based methods exist for improving population estimates, predicting the effects of management practices in order to maintain genetically diverse, healthy populations, and estimating the productivity of rangelands. Greater transparency in how science-based methods are used to inform management decisions may help increase public confidence in the Wild Horse and Burro Program.

Small Populations, Large Effects
Small Populations, Large Effects

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2012-06-12

Total Pages: 176

ISBN-13: 0309255635

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In the early 1990s, the Census Bureau proposed a program of continuous measurement as a possible alternative to the gathering of detailed social, economic, and housing data from a sample of the U.S. population as part of the decennial census. The American Community Survey (ACS) became a reality in 2005, and has included group quarters (GQ)-such places as correctional facilities for adults, student housing, nursing facilities, inpatient hospice facilities, and military barracks-since 2006, primarily to more closely replicate the design and data products of the census long-form sample. The decision to include group quarters in the ACS enables the Census Bureau to provide a comprehensive benchmark of the total U.S. population (not just those living in households). However, the fact that the ACS must rely on a sample of what is a small and very diverse population, combined with limited funding available for survey operations, makes the ACS GQ sampling, data collection, weighting, and estimation procedures more complex and the estimates more susceptible to problems stemming from these limitations. The concerns are magnified in small areas, particularly in terms of detrimental effects on the total population estimates produced for small areas. Small Populations, Large Effects provides an in-depth review of the statistical methodology for measuring the GQ population in the ACS. This report addresses difficulties associated with measuring the GQ population and the rationale for including GQs in the ACS. Considering user needs for ACS data and of operational feasibility and compatibility with the treatment of the household population in the ACS, the report recommends alternatives to the survey design and other methodological features that can make the ACS more useful for users of small-area data.