According to standard economic theory and modelling, liberalizing agriculture will result in important welfare gains. Because of price volatility, an alternative model, based in general disequilibrium in the Wicksellian tradition, provides much less optimistic conclusions, actually supported by the recent evolution of the world agricultural system, as well as by the history of the many attempts of agricultural trade liberalization since the 18th century.
The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.
Developing countries have a major stake in the outcome of trade negotiations conducted under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO). 'Agriculture and the WTO: Creating a Trading System for Development' explores the key issues and options in agricultural trade liberalization from the perspective of these developing countries. Leading experts in trade and agriculture from both developed and developing countries provide key research findings and policy analyses on a range of issues that includes market access, domestic support, export competition, quota administration methods, food security, biotechnology, intellectual property rights, and agricultural trade under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture. Material is covered in summary and in comprehensive detail with supporting data, a substantial bibliography, and listings of online resources. This book will be of interest to policymakers and analysts in the fields of development economics and commodities pricing and trade.
The volume offers to the reader a multi-faceted dialogue between noted experts from two major agricultural countries, both founding members of the Word Trade Organisation, each one with different stakes in the great globalisation game. After providing the recent historical background of agricultural policies in India and France, the contributors address burning issues related to market and regulation, food security and food safety, the expected benefits from the WTO and the genuine problems raised by the new forms of international trade in agriculture, including the sensitive question of intellectual property rights in bio-technologies. This informed volume underlines the necessity of moving beyond the North-South divide, in order to address the real challenges of the future.
"This book is an authoritative resource on the latest technological developments in urban agriculture and its ability to supplement current food systems. The content within this publication represents the work of topics such as sustainable production in urban spaces, farming practices, and urban distribution methods"--Provided by publisher.
Agricultural trade is a major factor determining food security in Caribbean countries. In these small open economies, exports are essential, whilst imports provide a large part of the food supply. This book examines various dimensions of trade policy and related issues and suggests policies to address trade and food security and rural development linkages. It is as a guide and reference documents for agricultural trade policy analysts, trade negotiators, policy-makers and planners in both the public and private sectors.
Author: Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian Gray, Christina Ingersoll, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz, Tingju Zhu, Timothy B. Sulser, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, and Liangzhi You
As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the world's population. This study assesses how serious the danger to food security might be and suggests some steps policymakers can take to remedy the situation.Using various modeling techniques, the authors project 15 different future scenarios for food security through 2050. Each scenario involves an alternative combination of potential population and income growth and climate change. The authors also examine the specific test case of a hypothetical extended drought in South Asia, to demonstrate the possible effects of increased climate variability on a particular world region. They conclude that the negative effects of climate change on food security can be counteracted by broad-based economic growthparticularly improved agricultural productivityand robust international trade in agricultural products to offset regional shortages. In pursuit of these goals, policymakers should increase public investment in land, water, and nutrient use and maintain relatively free international trade. This inquiry into the future of food security should be of use to policymakers and others concerned with the impact of climate change on international development.
This publication explores key issues in global agricultural trade policy, production and trade patterns. It sets out research findings based on a series of commodity studies for coffee, cotton, dairy, fruits and vegetables, groundnuts, rice, seafood products, sugar, and wheat; all of which are important commodity markets for developing countries and which feature distorted policy regimes among industrial or middle-income countries. The studies analyse current policy regimes in key producing and consuming countries and estimate the distributional impacts of policy reforms and their impact on trade flows and production location. Other issues discussed include: product standards and compliance costs, the impact and effectiveness of preferences, attempts to decouple agricultural support from agricultural output, and the potential gains from global liberalisation in agricultural and food markets.
A joint FAO and World Bank study which shows how the farming systems approach can be used to identify priorities for the reduction of hunger and poverty in the main farming systems of the six major developing regions of the world.
