We are bombarded with economic numbers: unemployment, retail sales, inflation, GDP—the list goes on and on. Some analyst or another is constantly telling us about an obscure statistic that is the key to our future, or is apparently the indicator that the "Fed" will be using to key off its decisions. With economic numbers playing such a central role in the national and world dialogue on policy and markets, and spilling over into the political arena, a broad review of what they are all about is timely. This book reviews the critical US economic data, and how one may put the numbers into an intellectual structure that will depict evolving economic reality. The work is aimed at those who want and need to get some understanding about how the data contributes to a big picture of the economy and guides policy. The objective is for the reader to grasp the overall logic of the data—how each piece of the puzzle contributes to our understanding of the overall economy. This is the way the Fed looks at the numbers. There are other books that go through the economic numbers, but they do so in a "bottom-up" fashion, describing a series in some detail and adding something about how financial markets may respond to it. This book naturally has considerable discussion of series, but views them as part of the overall mosaic, not items of fundamental interest in themselves.
Everything you need to easily get a handle on economic indicators In today's volatile, often troubling economic landscape, there are myriad statistics and reports that paint an economic picture that can sometimes resemble a work by Jackson Pollock. These complex and often-conflicting reports could vex even the savviest investor. Economic Indicators For Dummies explains how to interpret and use key global economic indicators to make solid investments, aid in business planning, and help develop informed decisions. In plain English, it breaks down the complex language and statistics to help you make sense of this critical information. You'll discover how to interpret economic data within the context of other sometimes-conflicting reports and statistics, and use the information to make profitable decisions. You'll understand the meaning of such data as employment indices and housing and construction stats and how they affect stocks, bonds, commodities and international markets . . . and how you can use these statistics to make investment decisions as well as plan strategic goals for business growth. Economic Indicators For Dummies breaks down dozens of statistics and patterns to give you a better understanding of how various sources of data and information can be used. Breaks down jargon and statistical concepts Covers how to use publicly available economic indicators to better position your portfolio, improve returns, and make sensible, long-range business plans Discusses the reliability and timeliness of the collected data, while helping investors prioritize the flow of economic information to avoid information overload Whether you're an investor, economics student, or business professional involved in making key strategic decisions for your company, Economic Indicators For Dummies has you covered.
The consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate at which prices of consumer goods and services change over time. It is used as a key indicator of economic performance, as well as in the setting of monetary and socio-economic policy such as indexation of wages and social security benefits, purchasing power parities and inflation measures. This manual contains methodological guidelines for statistical offices and other agencies responsible for constructing and calculating CPIs, and also examines underlying economic and statistical concepts involved. Topics covered include: expenditure weights, sampling, price collection, quality adjustment, sampling, price indices calculations, errors and bias, organisation and management, dissemination, index number theory, durables and user costs.
Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
A guide for constructing and using composite indicators for policy makers, academics, the media and other interested parties. In particular, this handbook is concerned with indicators which compare and rank country performance.
Existing economic indicators and indexes assess economic activity but no single indicator measures the general macro-economic performance of a nation, state, or region in a methodologically simple and intuitive way. This paper proposes a simple, yet informative metric called the Economic Performance Index (EPI). The EPI represents a step toward clarity, by combining data on inflation, unemployment, government deficit, and GDP growth into a single indicator. In contrast to other indexes, the EPI does not use complicated mathematical procedures but was designed for simplicity, making it easier for professionals and laypeople alike to understand and apply to the economy. To maximize ease of understanding, we adopt a descriptive grading system. In addition to a Raw EPI that gives equal weights to its components, we construct a Weighted EPI and show that both indexes perform similarly for U.S. data. To demonstrate the validity of the EPI, we conduct a review of U.S. history from 1790 to 2012. We show that the EPI reflects the major events in U.S. history, including wars, periods of economic prosperity and booms, along with economic depressions, recessions, and even panics. Furthermore, the EPI not only captures official recessions over the past century but also allows for measuring and comparing their relative severity. Even though the EPI is simple by its construction, we show that its dynamics are similar to those of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI).
Every day, stocks, bonds, and currencies bounce wildly in response to new economic indicators. Money managers obsess over those statistics, because they provide crucial clues about the future of the economy and the financial markets. Now "you "can use these indicators to make smarter investment decisions, just like the professionals do.You don't need an economics degree, or a CPA... just this easy-to-use book. Former "TIME "Magazine senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl has done the impossible: he's made economic indicators "fascinating." Using real-world examples and stories, Baumohl illuminates every U.S. and foreign indicator that matters.Where to find them.What they look like. What the insiders know about their track records. And "exactly "how to interpret them. Whether you're an investor, broker, portfolio manager, researcher, journalist, or student, you'll find this book indispensable.Nobody can predict the future with certainty. But "The Secrets of Economic Indicators "will get you as close as humanly possible. What the numbers "really "mean... ...to stocks, bonds, rates, currencies, and you Ahead of the curve: spotting turning points Calling recessions and recoveries in time to profit from them Leading indicators: where's the economy "really "heading Decoding initial unemployment claims, housing starts, the yield curve, and other predictors Beyond the borders Why foreign indicators are increasingly important-and how to use them Making sense of indicators in conflict What to do when the numbers disagree Finding the data Free web resources for the latest economic dataInvestments ""This is the most up-to-date guide to economic indicators and their importance to financial markets in print. For anyone trying to follow the economic data, this should be next to your "computer so that you can understand and find the data on the Internet." David Wyss, Chief Economist, Standard and Poor's ""I find Baumohl's writing fascinating. Just about anyone who's serious about understanding which way the economy is headed will want to read this book. It could be a classic."" Harry Domash, Columnist for MSN Money and Publisher, Winning Investing Newsletter ""Every business person or investor should keep a copy of Baumohl's book close-at-hand. It is great, at long last, to have someone who has eliminated what may have been so perplexing to so many and to have done so with such remarkable clarity."" Hugh Johnson, Chief Investment Officer, First Albany ""Bernie Baumohl has written a "must read" educational and reference book that every individual investor will find indispensable for watching, monitoring, and interpreting the markets."" Allen Sinai, President and Chief Global Economist, Decision Economics, Inc. ""Baumohl has a gift for taking a complicated subject and allowing it to read like a fast-moving novel. I recommend this book if you care about your future finances."" Morris E. Lasky, CEO, Lodging Unlimited, Inc.-manager and consultant for $6 billion in hotel assets; Chairman, Lodging Conference; Chairman, International Hotel Conference ""I think this is an excellent book. It's well written, accessible to a variety of readers, deals with an interesting and important subject, and covers the topic well. It deserves to get a lot of notice and use."" D. Quinn Mills, Alfred J. Weatherhead Jr., Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School "The fascinating, plain-English guide to economic indicators: what they mean, and how to use them." "Unemployment. Inflation. Consumer confidence. Retail sales.".. Every morning brings new economic statistics. Which economic indicators really matter? What do they mean for stocks, bonds, interest rates, currencies..."your portfolio?" How can you use them to make faster, smarter investment decisions? Simple, clear, non-technical, friendly, "usable."..the "only "book of its kind! By former renowned "TIME "Magazine economics journalist Bernard Baumohl. (c) Copyright Pearson Education. All rights reserved.
A handy reference to understanding key economic indicators and acting on them New economic data are reported virtually every trading day. Investors, big and small, have to understand how these reports influence their investments, portfolios, and future sources of income. The third edition of The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators examines the most important economic statistics currently used on Wall Street. In a straightforward and accessible style, it tells you exactly what these reports measure and what they really mean. Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this reliable resource sheds some much-needed light on theses numbers and data releases and shows you what to look for and how to react to various economic indicators. Covers everything from gross domestic product and employment to consumer confidence and spending Author Richard Yamarone shares his experience as a former trader, academic, and current Wall Street economist Illustrated with instructive graphs and charts that will put you ahead of market curves Engaging and informative, this book will put you in a better position to make more informed investment decisions, based of some of today's most influential economic indicators.
A history and critical assessment of leading indicators reveals their indelible impact on the economy, public policy, and other critical decisions, discussing their shortcomings while making suggestions for reducing dependence on them.
