Thinking
Thinking

Author: John Brockman

Publisher: Harper Collins

Published: 2013-10-29

Total Pages: 294

ISBN-13: 0062258567

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Unlock your mind. From the bestselling authors of Thinking, Fast and Slow; The Black Swan; and Stumbling on Happiness comes a cutting-edge exploration of the mysteries of rational thought, decision-making, intuition, morality, willpower, problem-solving, prediction, forecasting, unconscious behavior, and beyond. Edited by John Brockman, publisher of Edge.org ("The world's smartest website"—The Guardian), Thinking presents original ideas by today's leading psychologists, neuroscientists, and philosophers who are radically expanding our understanding of human thought. Contributors include: Daniel Kahneman on the power (and pitfalls) of human intuition and "unconscious" thinking Daniel Gilbert on desire, prediction, and why getting what we want doesn't always make us happy Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the limitations of statistics in guiding decision-making Vilayanur Ramachandran on the scientific underpinnings of human nature Simon Baron-Cohen on the startling effects of testosterone on the brain Daniel C. Dennett on decoding the architecture of the "normal" human mind Sarah-Jayne Blakemore on mental disorders and the crucial developmental phase of adolescence Jonathan Haidt, Sam Harris, and Roy Baumeister on the science of morality, ethics, and the emerging synthesis of evolutionary and biological thinking Gerd Gigerenzer on rationality and what informs our choices

Prediction
Prediction

Author: Daniel R. Sarewitz

Publisher:

Published: 2000-04

Total Pages: 434

ISBN-13:

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Based upon ten case studies, Prediction explores how science-based predictions guide policy making and what this means in terms of global warming, biogenetically modifying organisms and polluting the environment with chemicals.

Data Science for Business and Decision Making
Data Science for Business and Decision Making

Author: Luiz Paulo Favero

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 2019-04-11

Total Pages: 1246

ISBN-13: 0128112174

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Data Science for Business and Decision Making covers both statistics and operations research while most competing textbooks focus on one or the other. As a result, the book more clearly defines the principles of business analytics for those who want to apply quantitative methods in their work. Its emphasis reflects the importance of regression, optimization and simulation for practitioners of business analytics. Each chapter uses a didactic format that is followed by exercises and answers. Freely-accessible datasets enable students and professionals to work with Excel, Stata Statistical Software®, and IBM SPSS Statistics Software®. - Combines statistics and operations research modeling to teach the principles of business analytics - Written for students who want to apply statistics, optimization and multivariate modeling to gain competitive advantages in business - Shows how powerful software packages, such as SPSS and Stata, can create graphical and numerical outputs

The Science of Intelligent Decision Making
The Science of Intelligent Decision Making

Author: Peter Hollins

Publisher: PKCS Media

Published: 2019-08-16

Total Pages: 148

ISBN-13:

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Overwhelmed and paralyzed by your choices? Learn how to get it right the first time - improve your analysis, judgment, and intuition. Unfortunately, you can’t just rely on your gut instinct or “hunch” when you make decisions. There’s a science to improving your critical thinking, weighing pros and cons, and avoiding the traps that take you down the wrong path. Make smart decisions by catching your brain's built-in flaws. The Science of Intelligent Decision Making will teach you to seize control of your life and make sure your decisions aren’t making you. This book cites years of research and scientific studies about what constitutes a great decision and the factors that will inevitably lead you there. It is an in-depth look at human nature and psychology and why we make decisions in the way we do - for better or for worse. This book is packed with theory, but it is all practical and actionable. Use these mental models and pieces of analysis on your decisions TODAY. Think more quickly and more thoroughly – at the same time. Peter Hollins has studied psychology and the human condition for over a dozen years. This book contains tactics pulled from his personal experience, as well as some of the most famous studies in decision theory and social psychology to help you make snap decisions. Beat analysis paralysis and eliminate indecision. •Learn your subconscious motivations, needs, and desires that hijack your brain. •Discover the surprising causes and cures for decision fatigue. •Over 10 of the most dangerous cognitive biases and decision traps. •How to make your pros and cons lists incredibly useful and illuminating. Make smart choices and never have “buyer’s remorse” regrets again. •The 6 Hats Method of intelligent decisions and how you can inhabit different perspectives. •The WRAP method of planning for failure in decisions. •How to think outside the box and creatively solve problems.

The Science of Decision Making
The Science of Decision Making

Author: Eric V. Denardo

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2002

Total Pages: 684

ISBN-13:

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Provides the reader with a perspective on the efficient operation of complicated systems. * Spreadsheets are used to employ and teach techniques. * Includes the facets of probability that relate to decision making.

Handbook of Health Decision Science
Handbook of Health Decision Science

Author: Michael A. Diefenbach

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-09-26

Total Pages: 370

ISBN-13: 1493934864

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This comprehensive reference delves into the complex process of medical decision making—both the nuts-and-bolts access and insurance issues that guide choices and the cognitive and affective factors that can make patients decide against their best interests. Wide-ranging coverage offers a robust evidence base for understanding decision making across the lifespan, among family members, in the context of evolving healthcare systems, and in the face of life-changing diagnosis. The section on applied decision making reviews the effectiveness of decision-making tools in healthcare, featuring real-world examples and guidelines for tailored communications with patients. Throughout, contributors spotlight the practical importance of the field and the pressing need to strengthen health decision-making skills on both sides of the clinician/client dyad. Among the Handbook’s topics: From laboratory to clinic and back: connecting neuroeconomic and clinical mea sures of decision-making dysfunctions. Strategies to promote the maintenance of behavior change: moving from theoretical principles to practices. Shared decision making and the patient-provider relationship. Overcoming the many pitfalls of communicating risk. Evidence-based medicine and decision-making policy. The internet, social media, and health decision making. The Handbook of Health Decision Science will interest a wide span of professionals, among them health and clinical psychologists, behavioral researchers, health policymakers, and sociologists.

The Analytic Hierarchy Process
The Analytic Hierarchy Process

Author: Bruce L. Golden

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 273

ISBN-13: 364250244X

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Management science is a di scipl ine dedicated to the development of techniques that enable decision makers to cope with the increasing complexity of our world. The early burst of excitement which was spawned by the development and successful applications of linear programming to problems in both the public and private sectors has challenged researchers to develop even more sophisticated methods to deal with the complex nature of decision making. Sophistication, however, does not always trans 1 ate into more complex mathematics. Professor Thomas L. Saaty was working for the U. S. Defense Department and for the U. S. Department of State in the late 1960s and early 1970s. In these positions, Professor Saaty was exposed to some of the most complex decisions facing the world: arms control, the Middle East problem, and the development of a transport system for a Third World country. While having made major contributions to numerous areas of mathematics and the theory of operations research, he soon realized that one did not need complex mathematics to come to grips with these decision problems, just the right mathematics! Thus, Professor Saaty set out to develop a mathematically-based technique for analyzing complex situations which was sophisticated in its simplicity. This technique became known as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and has become very successful in helping decision makers to structure and analyze a wide range of problems.

Goal-Directed Decision Making
Goal-Directed Decision Making

Author: Richard W. Morris

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 2018-08-23

Total Pages: 486

ISBN-13: 0128120991

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Goal-Directed Decision Making: Computations and Neural Circuits examines the role of goal-directed choice. It begins with an examination of the computations performed by associated circuits, but then moves on to in-depth examinations on how goal-directed learning interacts with other forms of choice and response selection. This is the only book that embraces the multidisciplinary nature of this area of decision-making, integrating our knowledge of goal-directed decision-making from basic, computational, clinical, and ethology research into a single resource that is invaluable for neuroscientists, psychologists and computer scientists alike. The book presents discussions on the broader field of decision-making and how it has expanded to incorporate ideas related to flexible behaviors, such as cognitive control, economic choice, and Bayesian inference, as well as the influences that motivation, context and cues have on behavior and decision-making. - Details the neural circuits functionally involved in goal-directed decision-making and the computations these circuits perform - Discusses changes in goal-directed decision-making spurred by development and disorders, and within real-world applications, including social contexts and addiction - Synthesizes neuroscience, psychology and computer science research to offer a unique perspective on the central and emerging issues in goal-directed decision-making

Decision Science and Technology
Decision Science and Technology

Author: James Shanteau

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 425

ISBN-13: 1461550890

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Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. The book is divided into four sections: `Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. `Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.`Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, `Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show. The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong.