Run Reconstruction, Spawner-recruit Analysis, and Escapement Goal Recommendation for Chinook Salmon in the Copper River
Author: James William Savereide
Publisher:
Published: 2018
Total Pages: 46
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAn age-structured state-space spawner–recruit model was fit to estimates of relative and absolute abundance, harvest, and age composition for Copper River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from 1980 to 2016. Bayesian statistical methods were employed to assess uncertainty in the presence of measurement error, serial correlation, and missing data. Ricker stock-recruit parameters and management reference points were estimated, including the escapement that provides for maximum sustained yield (SMSY). It is recommended that a sustainable escapement goal range of 18,500 to 33,000 fish be adopted for Copper River Chinook salmon. Escapement is evaluated by subtracting estimates of inriver harvest from estimates of inriver abundance. Escapements within this range have a high probability of producing sustainable yields.