Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-11-09

Total Pages: 131

ISBN-13: 1475578377

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The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming increasingly urgent. Countries will need to put in place safety nets to protect the poor and build consensus for some difficult fiscal choices. The region’s oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya’s better-than-expected postwar recovery. In the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, robust growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies and accommodative monetary conditions. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the outlook remains favorable, reflecting high oil prices that are benefiting oil and gas exporters, supportive commodity prices and remittance inflows benefiting oil and gas importers, and, for both groups, moderate direct exposure to Europe. The positive outlook provides an opportunity to strengthen policy buffers to prepare for any downside risks.

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia
Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Author: Mr.Alberto Behar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-05-09

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1484380797

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This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.

World Economic Outlook, October 2013
World Economic Outlook, October 2013

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-10-08

Total Pages: 657

ISBN-13: 1484348834

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Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.

Regional Economic Outlook, November 2018, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, November 2018, Middle East and Central Asia

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-10-24

Total Pages: 80

ISBN-13: 1484375386

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As in other regions in the world, countries in MENAP and CCA regions are exposed to tightening in global financing conditions and ongoing global trade tensions. The former has already begun to impact several emerging market economies in MENAP and could have more severe implications should financial market sentiment suddenly deteriorate. Escalating global trade tensions will have a limited direct and immediate impact on these regions but could impart significant strains over time through negative effects on trading partners and through market confidence effects.

Subsidy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa
Subsidy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa

Author: Mr.Carlo A Sdralevich

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-07-09

Total Pages: 130

ISBN-13: 1498350437

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In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.

Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-11-09

Total Pages: 131

ISBN-13: 1475510810

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The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming increasingly urgent. Countries will need to put in place safety nets to protect the poor and build consensus for some difficult fiscal choices. The region’s oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya’s better-than-expected postwar recovery. In the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, robust growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies and accommodative monetary conditions. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the outlook remains favorable, reflecting high oil prices that are benefiting oil and gas exporters, supportive commodity prices and remittance inflows benefiting oil and gas importers, and, for both groups, moderate direct exposure to Europe. The positive outlook provides an opportunity to strengthen policy buffers to prepare for any downside risks.

Macroeconomic Policy Formation in Africa - Country Cases
Macroeconomic Policy Formation in Africa - Country Cases

Author: Karl Wohlmuth

Publisher: LIT Verlag Münster

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 407

ISBN-13: 364390522X

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This Volume 17 of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook considers the following major issues: the macroeconomic policies in post-conflict countries (especially reviews of growth, social progress, and public finance strategies in medium-term frameworks) with Sudan and South Sudan as the country cases; and macroeconomic policy formation in West Africa -- with case studies presented on Senegal and Nigeria in the West African Monetary Zone and the CFA Zone. In addition, the book presents book reviews and book notes. (Series: African Development Perspectives Yearbook - Vol. 17) [Subject: African Studies, Economics]

Toward New Horizons
Toward New Horizons

Author: Mr.Harald Finger

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-04-11

Total Pages: 113

ISBN-13: 1484311469

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The changing political landscape in the Arab world has created opportunities for economic transformation by tackling long-standing economic issues. Nevertheless, three years after the onset of political transition, implementing necessary economic policies has proven to be challenging. This paper lays out key elements of economic policy reform for Arab countries in transition.

Does Public-Sector Employment Fully Crowd Out Private-Sector Employment?
Does Public-Sector Employment Fully Crowd Out Private-Sector Employment?

Author: Mr.Alberto Behar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-06-12

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13: 1484329414

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We quantify the extent to which public-sector employment crowds out private-sector employment using specially assembled datasets for a large cross-section of developing and advanced countries, and discuss the implications for countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Caucasus and Central Asia. These countries simultaneously display high unemployment rates, low private-sector employment rates and high proportions of government-sector employment. Regressions of either private-sector employment rates or unemployment rates on two measures of public-sector employment point to full crowding out. This means that high rates of public employment, which incur substantial fiscal costs, have a large negative impact on private employment rates and do not reduce overall unemployment rates.

World Economic Outlook, October 2012
World Economic Outlook, October 2012

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-10-08

Total Pages: 251

ISBN-13: 147556290X

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The October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) assesses the prospects for the global recovery in light of such risks as the ongoing euro area crisis and the "fiscal cliff" facing U.S. policymakers. Reducing the risks to the medium-term outlook implies reducing public debt in the major advanced economies, and Chapter 3 explores 100 years of history of dealing with public debt overhangs. In emerging market and developing economies, activity has been slowed by policy tightening in response to capacity constraints, weaker demand from advanced economies, and country-specific factors, but policy improvements have raised these economies' resilience to shocks, an issue explored in depth in Chapter 4.