This Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook covers the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The report reviews recent economic developments, discusses the economic outlook, and outlines risks and challenges ahead.
The past year has been one of strong economic performance for the Western Hemisphere, notwithstanding somewhat slower growth in the United States in recent quarters. Can this performance be sustained, and what challenges does the region face? Reviewing macroeconomic prospects and risks, this report pays particular attention to the influence of the external environment on Latin America, and addresses the question of whether Latin America has now succeeded in breaking with its history of periodic growth reversals.
The five Regional Economic Outlooks published biannually by the IMF cover Asia and Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. In each volume, recent economic developments and prospects for the region are discussed as a whole, as well as for specific countries. The reports include key data for countries in the region. Each report focuses on policy developments that have affected economic performance in the region, and discusses key challenges faced by policymakers. The near-term outlook, key risks, and their related policy challenges are analyzed throughout the reports, and current issues are explored, such as when and how to withdraw public interventions in financial systems globally while maintaining a still-fragile economic recovery.These indispensable surveys are the product of comprehensive intradepartmental reviews of economic developments that draw primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through consultation with member countries.
The United States has seen an improvement in economic activity, driven by consumption, and has taken a first step toward gradual normalization of interest rates. The U.S. recovery continues to support activity in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, but China’s slowdown has reduced the demand for exports from South America. At the same time, the region’s commodity exporters have experienced further terms-of-trade shocks as commodity prices continue their decline globally. This report describes the policies and economic reforms needed to address the declining productive capacity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Three chapters assess corporate vulnerabilities in Latin America, analyze the degree of exchange rate pass-through in the region, and evaluate trends in public and private infrastructure investment.
Growth in much of Latin America remains solid, although it slowed during the second half of 2011 as result of the combined effects of policy tightening and global uncertainties. Under our baseline, we expect growth in Latin America and the Caribbean to moderate to about 33⁄4 percent in 2012, from about 41⁄2 last year. For many countries, high commodity prices and easy external financing conditions will provide tailwinds. For others, weak growth in the United States and other advanced-country partners, or homegrown fiscal problems, will hold back activity. This edition of the Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere elaborates on three key themes. First, the global economic environment is somewhat better than in late 2011, but remains risky as renewed tensions from Europe and the likelihood of an oil price shock cannot be discarded. Second, external conditions will remain stimulative for much of Latin America: The double tailwinds of easy external finance and high commodity prices are likely to persist for a while, though not forever. And third, this environment creates opportunities for Latin America-opportunities to build on the resilience and flexibility that has served it so well during the global crisis of 2008-09. This edition also expands on these themes through analytical features on regional spillovers, the growth effects of global financial shocks, and housing and mortgage markets in the region.
With the global economy gaining some momentum, economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are recovering from a recession at the regional level in 2016. This gradual improvement can be understood as tale of two adjustments, external and fiscal, that are ongoing in response to earlier shocks. But headwinds from commodity terms-of-trade shocks and country-specific domestic factors are fading, paving the way for real GDP to grow by about 1 percent in 2017. Regional activity is expected to pick up further momentum in 2018, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated, while medium-term growth is projected to remain modest at about 2.6 percent. The outlook is shaped by key shifts in the global economic and policy landscape—where slow growth, low productivity, and high income inequality are creating pressure for a shift toward inward- looking policies in some advanced economies. Domestic fundamentals and developments, however, will continue to play a significant role in determining growth for the region. At the same time, risks to the outlook have widened in a setting of higher global uncertainty. In this challenging external context, countries should aim for completing fiscal and external adjustments to preserve or rebuild policy buffers. Charting a course toward higher, sustainable, and more equitable growth will also require strengthening structural reforms. Specifically, closing infrastructure gaps, improving the business environment, governance, and education outcomes, and encouraging female labor participation are necessary to boost medium-term growth and foster income convergence. Chapters in this report examine the ongoing external adjustment to terms-of-trade shifts, drivers of capital flows to the region, the role of the investor base, and macroeconomic impact of migration and remittances.
Through the twin themes of the environment and development, Brad D. Jokisch introduces students to the regions of Latin American and the Caribbean through a concise, comprehensive, and cohesive overview. Designed for courses in either geography or Latin American Studies, this text covers the physical geography, environmental hazards, and a concise history of the region, along with treatment of economic issues—including China’s role—urbanization, population trends, and international migration. Regional chapters on Brazil, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, the Andes, and the Southern Cone ensure that students understand the distinct areas of Latin America as well as the region as a whole. Key features include: Extensive maps, figures, and tables to help students visualize the material Chapter opening learning objectives and key terms lists to help organize important concepts End-of-chapter conclusions and summary points and a glossary to aid in studying Excellent treatment of current research from geography and across the social sciences to reinforce the state of the field A key case study chapter on Amazonian deforestation and development In-depth analysis of the commodity boom, the Pink Tide, the rise of China, certification programs, and the illicit drug trade
The macroeconomic experience of emerging and developing economies has tended to be quite different from that of industrial countries. Compared to industrial countries, emerging and developing economies have tended to be much more unstable, with more severe boom/bust cycles, episodes of high inflation and a variety of financial crises. This textbook describes how the standard macroeconomic models that are used in industrial countries can be modified to help understand this experience and how institutional and policy reforms in emerging and developing economies may affect their future macroeconomic performance. This second edition differs from the first in offering: extensive new material on themes such as fiscal institutions, inflation targeting, emergent market crises, and the Great Recession; numerous application boxes; end-of-chapter questions; references for each chapter; more diagrams, less taxonomy, and a more reader-friendly narrative; and enhanced integration of all parts of the work.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook is packed with country specific facts, figures, and worldwide projections that present the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Leading international economists pull together the latest data on key topics, producing informed projections and policy analyses that show where the global economy is headed in the years to come. Business executives, policymakers, bankers, investors, marketing strategists, and economists worldwide refer to the WEO with confidence because it delivers a balanced view of the current economic situation, built upon the respected and extensive macroeconomic expertise and statistical resources of the IMF. The WEO is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by over 1,000 economists on the IMF staff. An annual subscription to the World Economic Outlook, published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, offers a comprehensive assessment of the international economic situation as well as prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and unparalleled resources of the IMF, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, when even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings, the WEO supplies a solid source of actionable information and data.