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Author: Paul Weirich
Publisher:
Published: 2004-09-16
Total Pages: 278
ISBN-13: 019517125X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKPaul Weirich generalizes classical decision principles so that they apply to fallible, cognitively limited agents facing complex decision problems. His systematic approach to removal of decision theory's idealizations yields attainable but precise standards of rationality.
Author: Paul Weirich
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2004-09-16
Total Pages: 278
ISBN-13: 0198038232
DOWNLOAD EBOOKWithin traditional decision theory, common decision principles -- e.g. the principle to maximize utility -- generally invoke idealization; they govern ideal agents in ideal circumstances. In Realistic Decision Theory, Paul Weirch adds practicality to decision theory by formulating principles applying to nonideal agents in nonideal circumstances, such as real people coping with complex decisions. Bridging the gap between normative demands and psychological resources, Realistic Decision Theory is essential reading for theorists seeking precise normative decision principles that acknowledge the limits and difficulties of human decision-making.
Author: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2019-04-04
Total Pages: 408
ISBN-13: 3030052524
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Author: John S. Hammond
Publisher: Harvard Business School Press
Published: 2015-08
Total Pages: 256
ISBN-13: 9781633691049
DOWNLOAD EBOOKWhere should I live? Is it time to get a new job? Which job candidate should I hire? What business strategy should I pursue? We spend the majority of our lives making decisions, both big and small. Yet, even though our success is largely determined by the choices that we make, very few of us are equipped with useful decision-making skills. Because of this, we often approach our choices tentatively, or even fearfully, and avoid giving them the time and thought required to put our best foot forward. In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa--experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems--offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life. Their step-by-step, divide-and conquer approach will teach you how to: * Evaluate your plans * Break your potential decision into its key elements * Identify the key drivers that are most relevant to your goals * Apply systematic thinking * Use the right information to make the smartest choice Smart Choices doesn’t tell you what to decide; it tells you how. As you routinely use the process, you’ll become more confident in your ability to make decisions at work and at home. And, more importantly, by applying its time-tested methods, you’ll make better decisions going forward. Be proactive. Don’t wait until a decision is forced on you--or made for you. Seek out decisions that advance your long-term goals, values, and beliefs. Take charge of your life by making Smart Choices a lifetime habit.
Author: David N. Ammons
Publisher: SAGE
Published: 2008-10-17
Total Pages: 367
ISBN-13: 1483304590
DOWNLOAD EBOOKKnown for encouraging step-by-step problem solving and for connecting techniques to real-world scenarios, David Ammons’ Tools for Decision Making covers a wide range of local government practices—from the foundational to the advanced. Brief and readable, each chapter opens with a problem in a hypothetical city and then introduces a tool to address it. Thoroughly updated with new local government examples, the second edition also incorporates chapters devoted to such additional techniques as sampling analysis, sensitivity analysis, financial condition analysis, and forecasting via trend analysis. Numerous tables, figures, exhibits, equations, and worksheets walk readers through the application of tools, and boxed features throughout each chapter present other uses for techniques, helpful online resources, and common errors. A handy guide for students and an invaluable resource and reference for practitioners.
Author: D.J. White
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2018-02-06
Total Pages: 291
ISBN-13: 1351523325
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAll of human life may be seen as a process of decision-making, but it is only in recent years and in response to the needs of the large and complex organizations characterizing our society that this process has been subjected to scientifi c scrutiny. Out of this scrutiny-undertaken by a wide range of professionals in economics, administration, management, statistics, psychology, engineering, computer science, operations research, and systems analysis-there has begun to emerge a body of theory that has profound implications for improving practical decision-making. This book is the fi rst to bring together all the various aspects of decision theory into one cohesive treatment.
Author: Yakov Ben-Haim
Publisher: Elsevier
Published: 2006-10-11
Total Pages: 385
ISBN-13: 0080465706
DOWNLOAD EBOOKEveryone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. - New theory developed systematically - Many examples from diverse disciplines - Realistic representation of severe uncertainty - Multi-faceted approach to risk - Quantitative model-based decision theory
Author: Sachi Nandan Mohanty
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: 2021-04-16
Total Pages: 111
ISBN-13: 303066869X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIn Decision Making and Problem Solving: A Practical Guide for Applied Research, the author utilizes traditional approaches, tools, and techniques adopted to solve current day-to-day, real-life problems. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying accurate methods for designing a strategy as well as implementing these strategies in the real world. The book includes realistic case studies and practical approaches that should help readers understand how the decision making occurs and can be applied to problem solving under deep uncertainty.
Author: Rafaela Hillerbrand
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2012-01-12
Total Pages: 1209
ISBN-13: 9400714335
DOWNLOAD EBOOKRisk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine and economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists and legal scholars. But the topic of risk also leads to more fundamental questions such as: What is risk? What can decision theory contribute to the analysis of risk? What does the human perception of risk mean for society? How should we judge whether a risk is morally acceptable or not? Over the last couple of decades questions like these have attracted interest from philosophers and other scholars into risk theory. This handbook provides for an overview into key topics in a major new field of research. It addresses a wide range of topics, ranging from decision theory, risk perception to ethics and social implications of risk, and it also addresses specific case studies. It aims to promote communication and information among all those who are interested in theoetical issues concerning risk and uncertainty. This handbook brings together internationally leading philosophers and scholars from other disciplines who work on risk theory. The contributions are accessibly written and highly relevant to issues that are studied by risk scholars. We hope that the Handbook of Risk Theory will be a helpful starting point for all risk scholars who are interested in broadening and deepening their current perspectives.
Author: Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations
Publisher: National Academies Press
Published: 1998-08-14
Total Pages: 433
ISBN-13: 0309523893
DOWNLOAD EBOOKSimulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.
