Toward Rational Exuberance

Toward Rational Exuberance

Author: B. Mark Smith

Publisher: Macmillan

Published: 2001

Total Pages: 358

ISBN-13: 0374281777

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Traces the evolution of popular theories of stock market behavior, showing how they have become widely accepted over time and clarifying some of those them.


Speculation, Trading, and Bubbles

Speculation, Trading, and Bubbles

Author: José A. Scheinkman

Publisher: Columbia University Press

Published: 2014-07-08

Total Pages: 137

ISBN-13: 0231537638

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As long as there have been financial markets, there have been bubbles—those moments in which asset prices inflate far beyond their intrinsic value, often with ruinous results. Yet economists are slow to agree on the underlying forces behind these events. In this book José A. Scheinkman offers new insight into the mystery of bubbles. Noting some general characteristics of bubbles—such as the rise in trading volume and the coincidence between increases in supply and bubble implosions—Scheinkman offers a model, based on differences in beliefs among investors, that explains these observations. Other top economists also offer their own thoughts on the issue: Sanford J. Grossman and Patrick Bolton expand on Scheinkman's discussion by looking at factors that contribute to bubbles—such as excessive leverage, overconfidence, mania, and panic in speculative markets—and Kenneth J. Arrow and Joseph E. Stiglitz contextualize Scheinkman's findings.


Bursting the Bubble: Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market

Bursting the Bubble: Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market

Author: David F. DeRosa

Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation

Published: 2021-04-02

Total Pages: 206

ISBN-13: 1952927110

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The presence of speculative bubbles in capital markets (an important area of interest in financial history) is widely accepted across many circles. Talk of them is pervasive in the media and especially in the popular financial press. Bubbles are thought to be found primarily in the stock market, which is our main interest, although bubbles are said to occur in other markets. Bubbles go hand in hand with the notion that markets can be irrational. The academic community has a great interest in bubbles, and it has produced scholarly literature that is voluminous. For some economists, doing bubble research is like joining the vanguard of a Kuhnian paradigm shift in economic thinking. Not so fast. If bubbles did exist, they would pose a serious challenge to neoclassical finance. Bubbles would contradict the ideas that markets are rational or work in an informationally efficient manner. That’s what makes the topic of bubbles interesting. This book reviews and evaluates the academic literature as well as some popular investment books on the possible existence of speculative bubbles in the stock market. The main question is whether there is convincing empirical evidence that bubbles exist. A second question is whether the theoretical concepts that have been advanced for bubbles make them plausible. The reader will discover that I am skeptical that bubbles actually exist. But I do not think I or anyone else will ever be able to conclusively prove that there has never been a bubble. From studying the literature and from reading history, I find that many famous purported bubbles reflect inaccurate history or mistakes in analysis or simply cannot be shown to have existed. In other instances, bubbles might have existed. But in each of those cases, there are credible rational explanations. And good evidence exists for the idea that even if bubbles do exist, they are not of great importance to understanding the stock market.


Spectacular Speculation

Spectacular Speculation

Author: Urs Stäheli

Publisher: Stanford University Press

Published: 2013-02-20

Total Pages: 312

ISBN-13: 0804788251

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Spectacular Speculation is a history and sociological analysis of the semantics of speculation from 1870 to 1930, when speculation began to assume enormous importance in popular culture. Informed by the work of Luhmann, Foucault, Simmel and Deleuze, it looks at how speculation was translated into popular knowledge and charts the discursive struggles of making speculation a legitimate economic practice. Noting that the vocabulary available to discuss the concept was not properly economic, the book reveals the underside of putting it into words. Speculation's success depended upon non-economic language and morally questionable thrills: a proximity to the wasteful practice of gambling or other "degenerate" behaviors, the experience of financial markets as seductive, or out of control. American discourses of speculation take center stage, and the book covers an unusual range of material, including stock exchange guidebooks, ticker tape, moral treatises, plays, advertisements, and newspapers.


Avoiding the Fall

Avoiding the Fall

Author: Michael Pettis

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Published: 2013-09-24

Total Pages: 172

ISBN-13: 0870034081

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The days of rapid economic growth in China are over. Mounting debt and rising internal distortions mean that rebalancing is inevitable. Beijing has no choice but to take significant steps to restructure its economy. The only question is how to proceed. Michael Pettis debunks the lingering bullish expectations for China's economic rise and details Beijing's options. The urgent task of shifting toward greater domestic consumption will come with political costs, but Beijing must increase household income and reduce its reliance on investment to avoid a fall.


Paris-Princeton Lectures on Mathematical Finance 2003

Paris-Princeton Lectures on Mathematical Finance 2003

Author: Tomasz R. Bielecki

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2004-08-30

Total Pages: 259

ISBN-13: 3540444688

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The Paris-Princeton Lectures in Financial Mathematics, of which this is the second volume, will, on an annual basis, publish cutting-edge research in self-contained, expository articles from outstanding - established or upcoming! - specialists. The aim is to produce a series of articles that can serve as an introductory reference for research in the field. It arises as a result of frequent exchanges between the finance and financial mathematics groups in Paris and Princeton. This volume presents the following articles: "Hedging of Defaultable Claims" by T. Bielecki, M. Jeanblanc, and M. Rutkowski; "On the Geometry of Interest Rate Models" by T. Björk; "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Speculation and Trading in Financial Markets" by J.A. Scheinkman, and W. Xiong.


Empirical Finance

Empirical Finance

Author: Sardar M. N. Islam

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 208

ISBN-13: 3790826669

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This book makes two key contributions to empirical finance. First it provides a comprehensive analysis of the Thai stock market. Second it presents an excellent exposition ofhow modem econometric techniques can be utilised to understand a market. The increasing globalisation of the world's financial markets has made our un derstanding of the risk-return relationship in a broader range of markets critical. This is particularly so in emerging markets where market depth and liquidity are major issues. One such emerging market is Thailand. The Thai capital market isof particular interest given that it was the market in which the Asian financial crises commenced. As such an understanding ofthe Thai capital market via study of the pre and post-crisis periods enables one to shed light on one of the major financial markets events of recent times. This book provides a quantitative analysis of the Thai capital market using some very useful and recent econometric techniques. The book provides an over view of the Thai stock market in chapter 2. Descriptive statistics and time series models (moving average, exponential smoothing, ARIMA) are presented in chap ter 3 followed by market efficiency tests based on autocorrelations in chapter 4. A richer set of models is then considered in chapters 5 through 8. Chapter 5 finds a cointegrating relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock returns.