Quantitative Intelligence Analysis
Quantitative Intelligence Analysis

Author: Edward Waltz

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2014-10-16

Total Pages: 309

ISBN-13: 144223587X

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Quantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst’s mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst’s reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes: Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst’s mental models as computational models; dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games; the structure of an analyst’s mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledge of these models explicitly as computational models detailed description of the use of these models in rigorous, structured analysis of difficult targets; model illustrations and simulation descriptions; the role of models in support of collection and operations; case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems; And a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

Quantitative Approaches To Political Intelligence
Quantitative Approaches To Political Intelligence

Author: Richards Heuer

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2019-06-10

Total Pages: 123

ISBN-13: 1000308839

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Bridging the gap between the scientific approach to international relations and the intuitive analysis of the government foreign affairs specialist, this book reports on a concerted effort by the CIA to apply modern social science methods to problems confronted by political intelligence analysts. The unique experience gained through this CIA progra

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Author: Richards J Heuer

Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing

Published: 2020-03-05

Total Pages: 336

ISBN-13: 1839743050

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In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis
An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis

Author: Jerome Clauser

Publisher: Scarecrow Press

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 240

ISBN-13: 9780810861817

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Since the September 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. soil, the intelligence community has been scrutinized. Consequently, the 9/11 Commission recommended how to improve the quality of intelligence analysis. Those recommendations and the United States' involvement in the war in Iraq have spawned additional charges of the politicization of intelligence. In turn, the intelligence community has reconfigured itself with newly created departments supported by an expanded and inexperienced workforce that was not envisioned when intelligence agencies were formally established in 1947.

Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis
Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis

Author: Hank Prunckun

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2014-09-08

Total Pages: 385

ISBN-13: 1442224339

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Since 9/11, the needs of intelligence agencies as well as the missions they conduct have increased in number, size, and complexity. As such, government and private security agencies are recruiting staff to analyze the vast amount of data collected in these missions. This textbook offers a way of gaining the analytic skills essential to undertake intelligence work. It acquaints students and analysts with how intelligence fits into the larger research framework. It covers not only the essentials of applied research, but also the function, structure, and operational methods specifically involved in intelligence work. It looks at how analysts work with classified information in a security conscious environment as well as obtain data via covert methods. Students are left with little doubt about what intelligence is and how it is developed using scientific methods of inquiry. This revised edition of the popular text has been expanded and updated significantly.

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Author: Richards J. Heuer Jr.

Publisher: CQ Press

Published: 2014-05-28

Total Pages: 385

ISBN-13: 148331202X

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In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

Intelligence Analysis
Intelligence Analysis

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2011-03-08

Total Pages: 352

ISBN-13: 0309210925

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The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Handbook of Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis
Handbook of Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis

Author: Hank Prunckun

Publisher: Scarecrow Press

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 249

ISBN-13: 0810871912

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With the exponential growth in the intelligence field in the last few years, the profession has grown much larger and its mission more complex. Government and private sector security agencies have recruited intelligence analysts to process what has become a voluminous amount of raw information flowing into these agencies' data collection systems. Unfortunately, there is an unmet need for analysts who are able to process these data. For this reason there are a growing number of colleges and universities that offer intelligence training so that candidates for analyst positions can take-up their duties without protracted on-the-job instruction. Handbook of Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis offers students in such courses a way of gaining the analytic skills essential to undertake intelligence work. This book acquaints students and analysts with how intelligence fits into the larger research framework. It covers not only the essentials of applied research but also explains the function, structure, and operational methods specifically involved in intelligence work. It looks at how analysts work with classified information in a security conscious environment, as well as obtaining data via covert methods. Students are left with little doubt about what intelligence is and how it is developed using scientific methods of inquiry.

Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow
Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2011-04-08

Total Pages: 116

ISBN-13: 0309163420

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The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.

The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP)
The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP)

Author: Jonathan S. Lockwood

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA

Published: 2013-09-12

Total Pages: 339

ISBN-13: 1623567823

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The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) is a systematic technique for predicting short-term, unique behaviors. Using primarily qualitative empirical data, LAMP allows the analyst to predict the most likely outcomes for specific research questions across a wide range of intelligence problems, such as cyber threats in the U.S., the possibility of an Al Qaeda attack, the likelihood of Iran providing nuclear capability to terrorist groups, or the future actions of the Mexican drug cartel. LAMP offers an innovative and powerful method for organizing all available information based on the perceptions of the national actors, using it to make relevant predictions as to which alternate future is most likely to occur at a given moment in time. Its transparent structure enables anyone to see how an analyst gets from point A to point B to produce an intelligence estimate. LAMP differs from other analytical techniques in that it is based on determining the relative probability of a range of alternate futures, rather than attempting to determine the quantitative probability of their occurrence. After explaining its theoretical framework, the text leads the reader through the process of predictive analysis before providing practical case studies showing how LAMP is applied against real world problems, such as the possible responses of Israel, the U.S., and Lebanon to the behavior of Hezbollah or the competing visions of the future of Afghanistan. Evaluation of the method is provided with the case studies to show the effectiveness of the LAMP predictions over time. The book is complemented by a website with downloadable software for use by students of intelligence in conducting their own predictive analysis. It will be an essential tool for the analyst and the student, not only for national security issues but also for competitive intelligence.