Quantitative Intelligence Analysis
Quantitative Intelligence Analysis

Author: Edward Waltz

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2014-10-16

Total Pages: 309

ISBN-13: 144223587X

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Quantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst’s mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst’s reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes: Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst’s mental models as computational models; dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games; the structure of an analyst’s mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledge of these models explicitly as computational models detailed description of the use of these models in rigorous, structured analysis of difficult targets; model illustrations and simulation descriptions; the role of models in support of collection and operations; case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems; And a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

Quantitative Approaches To Political Intelligence
Quantitative Approaches To Political Intelligence

Author: Richards Heuer

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2019-06-10

Total Pages: 130

ISBN-13: 1000308839

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Bridging the gap between the scientific approach to international relations and the intuitive analysis of the government foreign affairs specialist, this book reports on a concerted effort by the CIA to apply modern social science methods to problems confronted by political intelligence analysts. The unique experience gained through this CIA progra

Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers
Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers

Author: Robert D. Folker

Publisher:

Published: 2000

Total Pages: 60

ISBN-13:

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A growing number of JMIC students have began to incorporate replicable research design into their theses. This distillation of Master Sergeant Folker's theses shows how fruitful this approach can be. By taking advantage of on-site research funds available from the College, he managed, in brief visits to four Unified Command Joint Intelligence Centers, to carry out a controlled experiment to measure the impact of analyst familiarity with and use of one structured analytic technique hypothesis testing. His findings, if corroborated by follow-on studies, could have a substantial impact on Intelligence Community analytical practices, and even some influence on how senior policy officials react to analytical products. Managers of analytical personnel might also note that structured methods would appear, from this study of non-specialized joint intelligence center analysts, to be useful to specialized analysts who may be required to move beyond their areas of deep expertise to cover new or unfamiliar assignments.

Intelligence Analysis
Intelligence Analysis

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2011-04-08

Total Pages: 352

ISBN-13: 0309176980

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The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Author: Richards J Heuer

Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing

Published: 2020-03-05

Total Pages: 344

ISBN-13: 1839743050

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In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis
Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis

Author: Hank Prunckun

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2014-09-08

Total Pages: 385

ISBN-13: 1442224339

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Since 9/11, the needs of intelligence agencies as well as the missions they conduct have increased in number, size, and complexity. As such, government and private security agencies are recruiting staff to analyze the vast amount of data collected in these missions. This textbook offers a way of gaining the analytic skills essential to undertake intelligence work. It acquaints students and analysts with how intelligence fits into the larger research framework. It covers not only the essentials of applied research, but also the function, structure, and operational methods specifically involved in intelligence work. It looks at how analysts work with classified information in a security conscious environment as well as obtain data via covert methods. Students are left with little doubt about what intelligence is and how it is developed using scientific methods of inquiry. This revised edition of the popular text has been expanded and updated significantly.

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Author: Richards J. Heuer Jr.

Publisher: CQ Press

Published: 2014-05-28

Total Pages: 385

ISBN-13: 148331202X

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In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

Operation Iraqi Freedom 04 - 06: Opportunities to Apply Quantitative Methods to Intelligence Analysis
Operation Iraqi Freedom 04 - 06: Opportunities to Apply Quantitative Methods to Intelligence Analysis

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 18

ISBN-13:

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The purpose of this presentation is to illustrate the need for a quantitative analytical capability within organizations and staffs that provide intelligence analysis to Army, Joint, and Coalition Force headquarters. The author presents a brief history of intelligence analysis in World War I, World War II, the Cold War, and the post-Cold War era. Today's threat is nondoctrinal and asymmetric. The means used to counter this threat are based on standardized equipment and capabilities, and they rely on template-based analysis and network diagrams. Template-based analysis works well with doctrinally dependent threats, but it is of limited used against asymmetric threats. The author presents a chart showing the information flow of intelligence in Multi-National Corps - Iraq (MNC-I). What worked in Iraq were single data bases, speed, granularity, trend analysis, ANOVA methods, network flow analysis, geospatial products, correlation/causality, and statistical process control charts. What didn't work were multiple data bases, a push for 100% accuracy, too much granularity, and low R(exp 2) values. The author presents examples of MNC-I intelligence products. A bar chart shows the average weekly attacks by category and time period for the period 1 Jan 2004 to 28 Jan 2005. The chart presents types of attacks during baseline, pre-sovereignty, sovereignty, and election periods. Two other charts show attack times by hour and attacks by MSC for the period 18 Dec 2004 to 28 Jan 2005. These attacks are classified as attacks on IGO, Infrastructure, ISF, Civilians, and MNF-I. A map product shows the density of attacks. In summary, changing threats prompt the development of additional intelligence analysis tools; history has proven that quantitative methods provide value-added to intelligence analysis; quantitative analysis compliments, but does not replace, automated solutions; and quantitative methods can give a high potential payoff with minor resourcing requirements.

Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow
Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2011-04-08

Total Pages: 116

ISBN-13: 0309163420

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The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.