Probabilistic risk and hazard assessments are applied to a wide range of engineering systems, mainly for regulatory reasons needed for development consent, system certification and occupational health and safety issues. The purpose of this book is to raise awareness of the limitations, uncertainties and other issues inherent in probabilistic risk analysis procedures. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Engineering Systems describes: the importance of probabilistic risk assessment in decision making, i.e. risk management; types of risk and probabilistic risk analysis procedures; data needed for the conduct of probabilistic risk analysis; and acceptable/tolerable risk and other risk acceptance criteria. In essence, the book provides a multi-disciplinary and integrated explanation of risk assessment procedures that will enable the non-specialist reader to gain valuable insights into the development of risk analysis procedures. Practising engineers and graduate engineering students across a range of disciplines will find this book immensely useful.
This open access book summarizes the findings of the VUELCO project, a multi-disciplinary and cross-boundary research funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program. It comprises four broad topics: 1. The global significance of volcanic unrest 2. Geophysical and geochemical fingerprints of unrest and precursory activity 3. Magma dynamics leading to unrest phenomena 4. Bridging the gap between science and decision-making Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon. The fact that unrest may, or may not lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the understanding of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. When a volcano evolves from dormancy into a phase of unrest, important scientific, political and social questions need to be addressed. This book is aimed at graduate students, researchers of volcanic phenomena, professionals in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, observatory personnel, as well as emergency managers who wish to learn about the complex nature of volcanic unrest and how to utilize new findings to deal with unrest phenomena at scientific and emergency managing levels. This book is open access under a CC BY license.
This book is a methodological approach to the goal-based safety design procedure that will soon be an international requirement. This is the first single volume book to describe how to satisfy safety goals by modern reliability engineering. Its focus is on the quantitative aspects of the international standards using a methodological approach. Case studies illustrate the methodologies presented.
Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.
Author: National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Lessons Learned from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident for Improving Safety and Security of U.S. Nuclear Plants
The March 11, 2011, Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami sparked a humanitarian disaster in northeastern Japan. They were responsible for more than 15,900 deaths and 2,600 missing persons as well as physical infrastructure damages exceeding $200 billion. The earthquake and tsunami also initiated a severe nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. Three of the six reactors at the plant sustained severe core damage and released hydrogen and radioactive materials. Explosion of the released hydrogen damaged three reactor buildings and impeded onsite emergency response efforts. The accident prompted widespread evacuations of local populations, large economic losses, and the eventual shutdown of all nuclear power plants in Japan. "Lessons Learned from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident for Improving Safety and Security of U.S. Nuclear Plants" is a study of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. This report examines the causes of the crisis, the performance of safety systems at the plant, and the responses of its operators following the earthquake and tsunami. The report then considers the lessons that can be learned and their implications for U.S. safety and storage of spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste, commercial nuclear reactor safety and security regulations, and design improvements. "Lessons Learned" makes recommendations to improve plant systems, resources, and operator training to enable effective ad hoc responses to severe accidents. This report's recommendations to incorporate modern risk concepts into safety regulations and improve the nuclear safety culture will help the industry prepare for events that could challenge the design of plant structures and lead to a loss of critical safety functions. In providing a broad-scope, high-level examination of the accident, "Lessons Learned" is meant to complement earlier evaluations by industry and regulators. This in-depth review will be an essential resource for the nuclear power industry, policy makers, and anyone interested in the state of U.S. preparedness and response in the face of crisis situations.
Introduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice—from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new 2nd Edition discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today. The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk. Risk Assessment also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk. Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.
A collection of papers presented at the PSAM 7 – ESREL ’04 conference in June 2004, reflecting a wide variety of disciplines, such as principles and theory of reliability and risk analysis, systems modelling and simulation, consequence assessment, human and organisational factors, structural reliability methods, software reliability and safety, insights and lessons from risk studies and management/decision making. This volume covers both well-established practices and open issues in these fields, identifying areas where maturity has been reached and those where more development is needed.
The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.
An up-to-date guide for using massive amounts of data and novel technologies to design, build, and maintain better systems engineering Systems Engineering in the Fourth Industrial Revolution: Big Data, Novel Technologies, and Modern Systems Engineering offers a guide to the recent changes in systems engineering prompted by the current challenging and innovative industrial environment called the Fourth Industrial Revolution—INDUSTRY 4.0. This book contains advanced models, innovative practices, and state-of-the-art research findings on systems engineering. The contributors, an international panel of experts on the topic, explore the key elements in systems engineering that have shifted towards data collection and analytics, available and used in the design and development of systems and also in the later life-cycle stages of use and retirement. The contributors address the issues in a system in which the system involves data in its operation, contrasting with earlier approaches in which data, models, and algorithms were less involved in the function of the system. The book covers a wide range of topics including five systems engineering domains: systems engineering and systems thinking; systems software and process engineering; the digital factory; reliability and maintainability modeling and analytics; and organizational aspects of systems engineering. This important resource: Presents new and advanced approaches, methodologies, and tools for designing, testing, deploying, and maintaining advanced complex systems Explores effective evidence-based risk management practices Describes an integrated approach to safety, reliability, and cyber security based on system theory Discusses entrepreneurship as a multidisciplinary system Emphasizes technical merits of systems engineering concepts by providing technical models Written for systems engineers, Systems Engineering in the Fourth Industrial Revolution offers an up-to-date resource that contains the best practices and most recent research on the topic of systems engineering.
Seismic hazard and risk analyses underpin the loadings prescribed by engineering design codes, the decisions by asset owners to retrofit structures, the pricing of insurance policies, and many other activities. This is a comprehensive overview of the principles and procedures behind seismic hazard and risk analysis. It enables readers to understand best practises and future research directions. Early chapters cover the essential elements and concepts of seismic hazard and risk analysis, while later chapters shift focus to more advanced topics. Each chapter includes worked examples and problem sets for which full solutions are provided online. Appendices provide relevant background in probability and statistics. Computer codes are also available online to help replicate specific calculations and demonstrate the implementation of various methods. This is a valuable reference for upper level students and practitioners in civil engineering, and earth scientists interested in engineering seismology.
