Learn to use probabilistic techniques to solve problems in geotechnical engineering. The book reviews the statistical theories needed to develop the methodologies and interpret the results. Next, the authors explore probabilistic methods of analysis, such as the first order second moment method, the point estimate method, and random set theory. Examples and case histories guide you step by step in applying the techniques to particular problems.
An introduction to key concepts and techniques in probabilistic machine learning for civil engineering students and professionals; with many step-by-step examples, illustrations, and exercises. This book introduces probabilistic machine learning concepts to civil engineering students and professionals, presenting key approaches and techniques in a way that is accessible to readers without a specialized background in statistics or computer science. It presents different methods clearly and directly, through step-by-step examples, illustrations, and exercises. Having mastered the material, readers will be able to understand the more advanced machine learning literature from which this book draws. The book presents key approaches in the three subfields of probabilistic machine learning: supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning. It first covers the background knowledge required to understand machine learning, including linear algebra and probability theory. It goes on to present Bayesian estimation, which is behind the formulation of both supervised and unsupervised learning methods, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, which enable Bayesian estimation in certain complex cases. The book then covers approaches associated with supervised learning, including regression methods and classification methods, and notions associated with unsupervised learning, including clustering, dimensionality reduction, Bayesian networks, state-space models, and model calibration. Finally, the book introduces fundamental concepts of rational decisions in uncertain contexts and rational decision-making in uncertain and sequential contexts. Building on this, the book describes the basics of reinforcement learning, whereby a virtual agent learns how to make optimal decisions through trial and error while interacting with its environment.
Bayesian methods are a powerful tool in many areas of science and engineering, especially statistical physics, medical sciences, electrical engineering, and information sciences. They are also ideal for civil engineering applications, given the numerous types of modeling and parametric uncertainty in civil engineering problems. For example, earthquake ground motion cannot be predetermined at the structural design stage. Complete wind pressure profiles are difficult to measure under operating conditions. Material properties can be difficult to determine to a very precise level – especially concrete, rock, and soil. For air quality prediction, it is difficult to measure the hourly/daily pollutants generated by cars and factories within the area of concern. It is also difficult to obtain the updated air quality information of the surrounding cities. Furthermore, the meteorological conditions of the day for prediction are also uncertain. These are just some of the civil engineering examples to which Bayesian probabilistic methods are applicable. Familiarizes readers with the latest developments in the field Includes identification problems for both dynamic and static systems Addresses challenging civil engineering problems such as modal/model updating Presents methods applicable to mechanical and aerospace engineering Gives engineers and engineering students a concrete sense of implementation Covers real-world case studies in civil engineering and beyond, such as: structural health monitoring seismic attenuation finite-element model updating hydraulic jump artificial neural network for damage detection air quality prediction Includes other insightful daily-life examples Companion website with MATLAB code downloads for independent practice Written by a leading expert in the use of Bayesian methods for civil engineering problems This book is ideal for researchers and graduate students in civil and mechanical engineering or applied probability and statistics. Practicing engineers interested in the application of statistical methods to solve engineering problems will also find this to be a valuable text. MATLAB code and lecture materials for instructors available at http://www.wiley.com/go/yuen
"This text covers the development of decision theory and related applications of probability. Extensive examples and illustrations cultivate students' appreciation for applications, including strength of materials, soil mechanics, construction planning, and water-resource design. Emphasis on fundamentals makes the material accessible to students trained in classical statistics and provides a brief introduction to probability. 1970 edition"--
The proceedings of this conference contain keynote addresses on recent developments in geotechnical reliability and limit state design in geotechnics. It also contains invited lectures on such topics as modelling of soil variability, simulation of random fields and probability of rock joints. Contents: Keynote addresses on recent development on geotechnical reliability and limit state design in geotechnics, and invited lectures on modelling of soil variability, simulation of random field, probabilistic of rock joints, and probabilistic design of foundations and slopes. Other papers on analytical techniques in geotechnical reliability, modelling of soil properties, and probabilistic analysis of slopes, embankments and foundations.
In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has beenfurther developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in orderto make the material available and accessible to a wide audience.This will be the first book providing such an introduction,covering core theory and recent developments which can be appliedto many application areas. All authors of individual chapters areleading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high qualityand up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides acomprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includingtheory and applications reflecting the current state if the art.Each chapter is written by experts on the respective topics,including: Sets of desirable gambles; Coherent lower (conditional)previsions; Special cases and links to literature; Decision making;Graphical models; Classification; Reliability and risk assessment;Statistical inference; Structural judgments; Aspects ofimplementation (including elicitation and computation); Models infinance; Game-theoretic probability; Stochastic processes(including Markov chains); Engineering applications. Essential reading for researchers in academia, researchinstitutes and other organizations, as well as practitionersengaged in areas such as risk analysis and engineering.
Praise for the Third Edition “Researchers of any kind of extremal combinatorics or theoretical computer science will welcome the new edition of this book.” - MAA Reviews Maintaining a standard of excellence that establishes The Probabilistic Method as the leading reference on probabilistic methods in combinatorics, the Fourth Edition continues to feature a clear writing style, illustrative examples, and illuminating exercises. The new edition includes numerous updates to reflect the most recent developments and advances in discrete mathematics and the connections to other areas in mathematics, theoretical computer science, and statistical physics. Emphasizing the methodology and techniques that enable problem-solving, The Probabilistic Method, Fourth Edition begins with a description of tools applied to probabilistic arguments, including basic techniques that use expectation and variance as well as the more advanced applications of martingales and correlation inequalities. The authors explore where probabilistic techniques have been applied successfully and also examine topical coverage such as discrepancy and random graphs, circuit complexity, computational geometry, and derandomization of randomized algorithms. Written by two well-known authorities in the field, the Fourth Edition features: Additional exercises throughout with hints and solutions to select problems in an appendix to help readers obtain a deeper understanding of the best methods and techniques New coverage on topics such as the Local Lemma, Six Standard Deviations result in Discrepancy Theory, Property B, and graph limits Updated sections to reflect major developments on the newest topics, discussions of the hypergraph container method, and many new references and improved results The Probabilistic Method, Fourth Edition is an ideal textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level students majoring in mathematics, computer science, operations research, and statistics. The Fourth Edition is also an excellent reference for researchers and combinatorists who use probabilistic methods, discrete mathematics, and number theory. Noga Alon, PhD, is Baumritter Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science at Tel Aviv University. He is a member of the Israel National Academy of Sciences and Academia Europaea. A coeditor of the journal Random Structures and Algorithms, Dr. Alon is the recipient of the Polya Prize, The Gödel Prize, The Israel Prize, and the EMET Prize. Joel H. Spencer, PhD, is Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science at the Courant Institute of New York University. He is the cofounder and coeditor of the journal Random Structures and Algorithms and is a Sloane Foundation Fellow. Dr. Spencer has written more than 200 published articles and is the coauthor of Ramsey Theory, Second Edition, also published by Wiley.
