Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
This second edition of Principles of Business Forecasting by Keith Ord, Robert Fildes, and newest author Nikolaos Kourentzes serves as both a textbook for students and as a reference book for experienced forecasters in a variety of fields. The authors' motivation for writing this book, is to give users the tools and insight to make the most effective forecasts drawing on the latest research ideas, without being overly technical. The book is unique in its design, providing an introduction to both standard and advanced forecasting methods, as well as a focus on general principles to guide and simplify forecasting practice for those with little or no professional experience. One of the book's key strengths is the emphasis on real data sets, which have been updated in this second edition. These data sets are taken from government and business sources and are used throughout in the chapter examples and exercises. Forecasting techniques are demonstrated using a variety of software platforms beyond just "R," and a companion website provides easy-to-use Excel(R) macros that users can access to conduct analyses. Another important innovation in the second edition is the tutorial support for using open-source R programs, making all the methods available for use both in courses and practice. After the introductory chapters, the focus shifts to using extrapolative methods (exponential smoothing and ARIMA), then to statistical model-building using multiple regression. The authors also cover more novel techniques including data mining and judgmental methods, which are gaining increasing attention in applications. The second edition also offers expanded material on data analytics, in particular neural nets together with software, and applications that include new research findings relevant and immediately applicable to operations, such as hierarchical modeling and temporal aggregation. Finally, the authors examine organizational issues of implementation and the development of a forecasting support system within an organization; relevant to every manager, or future manager, who must make plans or decisions based on forecasts. Please take a moment to review the companion website for additional content in the Appendices (Basic Statistical Concepts, overview of Forecasting Software, and Forecasting in R: Tutorial and Examples) the many data sets referenced in the chapters, macros such as the Exponential Smoothing and Trend Curve Marcos and Time Series Neural Network Analysis and student study materials.
This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.
The 21st century business environment demands more analysis and rigor in marketing decision making. Increasingly, marketing decision making resembles design engineering-putting together concepts, data, analyses, and simulations to learn about the marketplace and to design effective marketing plans. While many view traditional marketing as art and some view it as science, the new marketing increasingly looks like engineering (that is, combining art and science to solve specific problems). Marketing Engineering is the systematic approach to harness data and knowledge to drive effective marketing decision making and implementation through a technology-enabled and model-supported decision process. (For more information on Excel-based models that support these concepts, visit DecisionPro.biz.) We have designed this book primarily for the business school student or marketing manager, who, with minimal background and technical training, must understand and employ the basic tools and models associated with Marketing Engineering. We offer an accessible overview of the most widely used marketing engineering concepts and tools and show how they drive the collection of the right data and information to perform the right analyses to make better marketing plans, better product designs, and better marketing decisions. What's New In the 2nd Edition While much has changed in the nearly five years since the first edition of Principles of Marketing Engineering was published, much has remained the same. Hence, we have not changed the basic structure or contents of the book. We have, however Updated the examples and references. Added new content on customer lifetime value and customer valuation methods. Added several new pricing models. Added new material on "reverse perceptual mapping" to describe some exciting enhancements to our Marketing Engineering for Excel software. Provided some new perspectives on the future of Marketing Engineering. Provided better alignment between the content of the text and both the software and cases available with Marketing Engineering for Excel 2.0.
In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.
Statistical analysis is essential to business decision-making and management, but the underlying theory of data collection, organization and analysis is one of the most challenging topics for business students and practitioners. This user-friendly text and CD-ROM package will help you to develop strong skills in presenting and interpreting statistical information in a business or management environment. Based entirely on using Microsoft Excel rather than more complicated applications, it includes a clear guide to using Excel with the key functions employed in the book, a glossary of terms and equations, plus a section specifically for those readers who feel rusty in basic maths. Each chapter has worked examples and explanations to illustrate the use of statistics in real life scenarios, with databases for the worked examples, cases and answers on the accompanying CD-ROM.
Incorporating 25 years of sales forecasting management research with more than 400 companies, Sales Forecasting Management, Second Edition is the first text to truly integrate the theory and practice of sales forecasting management. This research includes the personal experiences of John T. Mentzer and Mark A. Moon in advising companies how to improve their sales forecasting management practices. Their program of research includes two major surveys of companies′ sales forecasting practices, a two-year, in-depth study of sales forecasting management practices of 20 major companies, and an ongoing study of how to apply the findings from the two-year study to conducting sales forecasting audits of additional companies. The book provides comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sales forecasting analysis, combined with a managerial focus to give managers and users of the sales forecasting function a clear understanding of the forecasting needs of all business functions. New to This Edition: The author′s well-regarded Multicaster software system demo, previously available on cassette, has been updated and is now available for download from the authors′ Web site New insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting are presented The results of additional surveys done since the publication of the first edition have been added The discussion of the four dimensions of forecasting management has been significantly enhanced Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition. Sales Forecasting Management is an ideal text for graduate courses in sales forecasting management. Practitioners in marketing, sales, finance/accounting, production/purchasing, and logistics will also find this easy-to-understand volume essential.
This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. It is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, sales of SKUs, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what the book is about. Accurate forecasts are essential for predicting demand, identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. It provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.
