Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices
Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices

Author: Walter C. Labys

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Published: 2017-03-02

Total Pages: 260

ISBN-13: 1351917099

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Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Commodity Prices and Markets
Commodity Prices and Markets

Author: Takatoshi Ito

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2011-03

Total Pages: 346

ISBN-13: 0226386899

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Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Energy Transition Metals
Energy Transition Metals

Author: Lukas Boer

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-10-12

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 1513599372

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The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.

Primary Commodity Prices
Primary Commodity Prices

Author: L. Alan Winters

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1990-03-08

Total Pages: 334

ISBN-13: 9780521385503

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Commodity markets are of considerable interest and importance to economists, econometricians and dealers. This book reports the proceedings of an international conference on 'Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy', held in London under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March 1989. A range of papers by leading international authorities covers topics such as expectations formation in econometric commodity market models; price determination in the market for aluminium; the estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations; and a comparison of forward markets and buffer stocks as commodity earnings stabilizers. A key feature of this stock is its development of the policy implications of theoretical and empirical work in the field of commodity economics. Most papers are accompanied by discussant's comments to draw out their technical and policy implications. The book's readership will include commodity economists, commodity market practitioners and policy analysis, as well as professionals and advanced students interested in the fields of applied econometrics, economic development and international trade.

Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices
Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices

Author: Walter C. Labys

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-03-02

Total Pages: 247

ISBN-13: 1351917080

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Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Managing Commodity Price Risk in Developing Countries
Managing Commodity Price Risk in Developing Countries

Author: Stijn Claessens

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 1993

Total Pages: 490

ISBN-13:

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Primary commodities represent more than one-half of the export earnings of many developing countries. The large fluctuations that can occur in the prices of such commodities are therefore a main economic difficulty for these countries. New financial techniques can lower the risk caused by these price changes over longer periods and allow financial obligations to be linked to commodity prices. But few developing countries have used these techniques. This book shows policymakers in developing countries how to use the full range of new and established financial techniques. Through case studies, it provides detailed information about the techniques, analyzes the institutional constraints on them, and illustrates the kinds of technical assistance needed to make good use of them. It also describes the instruments, the markets, and the current regulatory framework. For the past several years, the World Bank has assisted developing countries in managing commodity price risk. The book draws extensively on the lessons learned from this assistance to demonstrate that developing countries can benefit significantly from using financial techniques to manage their risk.

Unemployment and Primary Commodity Prices
Unemployment and Primary Commodity Prices

Author: Annalisa Cristini

Publisher: Springer

Published: 1999-04-30

Total Pages: 198

ISBN-13: 1349149721

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The book discusses the links between primary commodity prices and the OECD rate of unemployment. In particular it formalises and estimates a macroeconomic model which by endogenizing both the OECD rate of unemployment and primary commodity prices, is capable of accounting for the feedback running from the primary market back to the OECD economy. Simulations are also performed to provide insights into the propagation mechanism of an oil price shock and the role played by the various factors to determine the final effect.

Primary Commodities and Economic Development
Primary Commodities and Economic Development

Author: Stephan Pfaffenzeller

Publisher: Routledge Studies in Development Economics

Published: 2019-12-12

Total Pages: 156

ISBN-13: 9780367869595

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Our post-industrialised global economy has achieved spectacular success and pushed back poverty to an extent previously thought impossible. This success is ultimately based on the continued supply of both renewable and non-renewable resources. Will this supply of primary commodities remain sufficient to support global economic growth? Why are the gains for countries specialising on commodity production often so limited? Can commodity dependent countries diversify into other economic activities? Primary Commodities and Economic Development addresses the changing position of primary commodities in the world economy and investigates their importance for commodity exporting under-developed countries. The book commences with a review of the theoretical foundations for inter-dependence between commodity specialisation and economic underdevelopment. Having related the role of commodity exports and the commodity terms of trade to growth models relevant to developing economies, the discussion shifts to an in-depth review of the statistical properties of the commodity terms of trade. The review of commodity price trends at the global level is then rounded off with a series of country case studies showing the concrete threats and opportunities surrounding commodity specialization. This book will be of essential reading for those with an interest in development economics and international economics, as well as for scholars of natural resource and agricultural economics.

Income Versus Prices: How Does The Business Cycle Affect Food (In)-Security?
Income Versus Prices: How Does The Business Cycle Affect Food (In)-Security?

Author: Mr. Christian Bogmans

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-09-24

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13: 155775246X

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We study how two aspects of food insecurity - caloric insufficiency and diet composition - are affected by aggregate economic fluctuations. The use of cross-country panel data allows us to adopt a global prospective on the identification of the macroeconomic determinants of food insecurity. Income shocks are the most relevant driver of food insecurity, displaying high elasticities at the early stages of economic development. The role of food price shocks is more limited. Social protection has a direct effect and mitigates the impact of income shocks. Effects are highly heterogeneous across a range of structural characteristics of the economy, highlighting the role of distributional aspects and of food import dependency.