Pricing Multivariate Contingent Claims Using Estimated Risk-Neutral Density Functions
Pricing Multivariate Contingent Claims Using Estimated Risk-Neutral Density Functions

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13:

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Many asset price series exhibit time-varying volatility, jumps, and other features inconsistent with assumptions about the underlying price process made by standard multivariate contingent claims (MVCC) pricing models. This paper develops an interpolative technique for pricing MVCCs flexible NLS pricing that involves the estimation of a flexible multivariate risk-neutral density function implied by existing asset prices. As an application, the flexible NLS pricing technique is used to value several bivariate contingent claims dependent on foreign exchange rates in 1993 and 1994. The bivariate flexible risk-neutral density function more accurately prices existing options than the bivariate lognormal density implied by a multivariate geometric Brownian motion. In addition, the bivariate contingent claims analyzed have substantially different prices using the two density functions suggesting flexible NLS pricing may improve accuracy over standard methods.

Semiparametric Pricing of Multivariate Contingent Claims
Semiparametric Pricing of Multivariate Contingent Claims

Author: Joshua V. Rosenberg

Publisher:

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13:

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This paper develops and implements a methodology for pricing multivariate contingent claims (MVCC s) based on semiparametric estimation of the multivariate risk-neutral density function.This methodology generates MVCC prices which are consistent with current market prices of univariate contingent claims.This method allows for completely general marginal risk-neutral densities and is compatible with all univariate risk-neutral density estimation techniques. The univariate risk-neutral densities are related by their risk-neutral correlation, which is estimated using time-series data on asset returns and an empirical pricing kernel (Rosenberg and Engle, 1999). This permits the multivariate risk-neutral density to be identified without requiring observation of multivariate contingent claims prices. The semiparametric MVCC pricing technique is used for valuation of one-month options on the better of two equity index returns. Option contracts with payoffs dependent on are four equity indexpairs are considered: Samp;P500 - CAC40, Samp;P500 - NK225, Samp;P500 - FTSE100, and Samp;P500 - DAX30. Five marginal risk-neutral densities (Samp;P500, CAC40, NK225, FTSE100, and DAX30) are estimated semiparametrically using a cross-section of contemporaneously measured equity index option prices in each market. A bivariate risk-neutral Plackett (1965) density is constructed using the given marginals and risk-neutral correlation derived using an empirical pricing kernel and the historical joint density of the index returns. Price differences from a lognormal pricing formulausing historical and risk-neutral return moments are found to be significant.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author: Graham Elliott

Publisher: Newnes

Published: 2013-08-23

Total Pages: 719

ISBN-13: 0444536841

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The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis
Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis

Author: Mr.Andreas A. Jobst

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-02-27

Total Pages: 93

ISBN-13: 1475557531

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The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.

Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park
Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park

Author: Yoosoon Chang

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2023-04-24

Total Pages: 449

ISBN-13: 1837532125

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Volumes 45a and 45b of Advances in Econometrics honor Professor Joon Y. Park, who has made numerous and substantive contributions to the field of econometrics over a career spanning four decades since the 1980s and counting.