The frequency of "high-impact, low-probability" (HILP) events in the last decade--such as Hurricane Katrina, the T hoku earthquake and tsunami, and major floods in Pakistan and Thailand--signals the emergence of a new "normal." In a world of globalized production and optimized supply chains, the impacts of HILP events spread rapidly and are felt on an international scale. This report examines the effects of the volcanic ash cloud that spread across Europe in April 2010 and draws lessons for other HILP events. It considers whether governments and the private sector are sufficiently prepared, how the global economy could be made more resilient, and the role of communications in a crisis."
How the best companies prepare for and manage modern vulnerabilities—from cybersecurity risks to climate change: new tools, processes and organizations for developing corporate resilience. A catastrophic earthquake is followed by a tsunami that inundates the coastline, and around the globe manufacturing comes to a standstill. State-of-the-art passenger jets are grounded because of a malfunctioning part. A strike halts shipments through a major port. A new digital device decimates the sales of other brands and sends established firms to the brink of bankruptcy. The interconnectedness of the global economy today means that unexpected events in one corner of the globe can ripple through the world's supply chain and affect customers everywhere. In this book, Yossi Sheffi shows why modern vulnerabilities call for innovative processes and tools for creating and embedding corporate resilience and risk management. Sheffi offers fascinating case studies that illustrate how companies have prepared for, coped with, and come out stronger following disruption—from the actions of Intel after the 2011 Japanese tsunami to the disruption in the “money supply chain” caused by the 2008 financial crisis. Sheffi, author of the widely read The Resilient Enterprise, focuses here on deep tier risks as well as corporate responsibility, cybersecurity, long-term disruptions, business continuity planning, emergency operations centers, detection, and systemic disruptions. Supply chain risk management, Sheffi shows, is a balancing act between taking on the risks involved in new products, new markets, and new processes—all crucial for growth—and the resilience created by advanced risk management.
Effective risk management is essential for the success of large projects built and operated by the Department of Energy (DOE), particularly for the one-of-a-kind projects that characterize much of its mission. To enhance DOE's risk management efforts, the department asked the NRC to prepare a summary of the most effective practices used by leading owner organizations. The study's primary objective was to provide DOE project managers with a basic understanding of both the project owner's risk management role and effective oversight of those risk management activities delegated to contractors.
Aware that a single crisis event can devastate their business, managers must be prepared for the worst from an expansive array of threats. The Routledge Companion to Risk, Crisis and Security in Business comprises a professional and scholarly collection of work in this critical field. Risks come in many varieties, and there is a growing concern for organizations to respond to the challenge. Businesses can be severely impacted by natural and man-made disasters including: floods, earthquakes, tsunami, environmental threats, terrorism, supply chain risks, pandemics, and white-collar crime. An organization’s resilience is dependent not only on their own system security and infrastructure, but also on the wider infrastructure providing health and safety, utilities, transportation, and communication. Developments in risk security and management knowledge offer a path towards resilience and recovery through effective leadership in crisis situations. The growing body of knowledge in research and methodologies is a basis for decisions to safeguard people and assets, and to ensure the survivability of an organization from a crisis. Not only can businesses become more secure through risk management, but an effective program can also facilitate innovation and afford new opportunities. With chapters written by an international selection of leading experts, this book fills a crucial gap in our current knowledge of risk, crisis and security in business by exploring a broad spectrum of topics in the field. Edited by a globally-recognized expert on risk, this book is a vital reference for researchers, professionals and students with an interest in current scholarship in this expanding discipline.
This book is a revision of the author’s original doctoral thesis on emergency preparedness through community radio in North Indian villages into a widening array of possible reapplications in other community development fields. The author expands on the process of transforming emergency preparedness education through community media in rural North India and applies this to the development of community-prosperity, defined simply as human and planetary well-being, anywhere in the world. A new theoretical framework is presented which combines the pivotal Integral Worlds Approach developed by Lessem and Schieffer with Critical Theory, thus exploring a new way to envision and implement social change, leading to innovation and social transformation. This book introduces the term "constructive resilience," which is a type of community-building that occurs alongside dominant societal structures that are either oppressive or ineffective. An evolving field of study and practice, it is emerging from the work of academics and community-builders who are members of the Bahá’í Faith. Bahá’í "consultation," a process of inquiry and decision-making, is offered as a systematic and effective method of defining problems and enacting solutions and is examined in the context of emergency preparedness education and local capacity-building. With its integral development approach, its unique combination of themes and theoretical components, and integration with the Bahá’í Faith, as well as its interdisciplinary nature, this book will be invaluable reading for researchers in many fields. It will be of particular interest in university-based training programs in disaster management and the various disciplines of international community development, as well as practitioners in the areas of micro enterprise, disaster management, community development, rural communications, rural economics and emergency preparedness education.
"The Ostrich Paradox boldly addresses a key question of our time: Why are we humans so poor at dealing with disastrous risks, and what can we humans do about it? It is a must-read for everyone who cares about risk." —Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow We fail to evacuate when advised. We rebuild in flood zones. We don't wear helmets. We fail to purchase insurance. We would rather avoid the risk of "crying wolf" than sound an alarm. Our ability to foresee and protect against natural catastrophes has never been greater; yet, we consistently fail to heed the warnings and protect ourselves and our communities, with devastating consequences. What explains this contradiction? In The Ostrich Paradox, Wharton professors Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther draw on years of teaching and research to explain why disaster preparedness efforts consistently fall short. Filled with heartbreaking stories of loss and resilience, the book addresses: •How people make decisions when confronted with high-consequence, low-probability events—and how these decisions can go awry •The 6 biases that lead individuals, communities, and institutions to make grave errors that cost lives •The Behavioral Risk Audit, a systematic approach for improving preparedness by recognizing these biases and designing strategies that anticipate them •Why, if we are to be better prepared for disasters, we need to learn to be more like ostriches, not less Fast-reading and critically important, The Ostrich Paradox is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand why we consistently underprepare for disasters, as well as private and public leaders, planners, and policy-makers who want to build more prepared communities.
The present work will discuss relevant theoretical frameworks and applications pertaining to enabling resilience within the risk, crisis and disaster management domain. The contributions to this book focus on resilience thinking along 4 broad themes: Urban Domain; Cyber Domain; Organizational/Social domain; and Socio-ecological domain. This book would serve as a valuable reference for courses on risk, crisis and disaster management, international development, social innovation and resilience. This will be of particular interest to those working in the risk, crisis and disaster management domain as it will provide valuable insights into enabling resilience. This book will be well positioned to inform disaster management professionals, policy makers and academics on strategies and perspectives regarding disaster resilience.
This book presents sensemaking strategies to support security planning and design. Threats to security are becoming complex and multifaceted and increasingly challenging traditional notions of security. The security landscape is characterized as ‘messes’ and ‘wicked problems’ that proliferate in this age of complexity. Designing security solutions in the face of interconnectedness, volatility and uncertainty, we run the risk of providing the right answer to the wrong problem thereby resulting in unintended consequences. Sensemaking is the activity that enables us to turn the ongoing complexity of the world into a “situation that is comprehended explicitly in words and that serves as a springboard into action” (Weick, Sutcliffe, Obstfeld, 2005). It is about creating an emerging picture of our world through data collection, analysis, action, and reflection. The importance of sensemaking to security is that it enables us to plan, design and act when the world as we knew it seems to have shifted. Leveraging the relevant theoretical grounding and thought leadership in sensemaking, key examples are provided, thereby illustrating how sensemaking strategies can support security planning and design. This is a critical analytical and leadership requirement in this age of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity that characterizes the security landscape. This book is useful for academics, graduate students in global security, and government and security planning practitioners.
A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises—like the sudden end of the cold war without a shot being fired—have caught governments and societies unprepared many times in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious recent example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined our lives. We have every reason to expect more such events in future. Several kinds of unanticipated scenarios—particularly those of low probability and high impact—have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can be major policy challenges. Anticipating and managing low-probability events is a critically important challenge to contemporary policymakers, who increasingly recognize that they lack the analytical tools to do so. Developing such tools is the focus of this insightful and perceptive volume, edited by renowned author Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by The American Interest magazine. Bl indside is organized into four main sections. "Thinking about Strategic Surprise" addresses the psychological and institutional obstacles that prevent leaders from planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating the necessary resources to deal with them. The following two sections pinpoint the failures—institutional as well as personal—that allowed key historical events to take leaders by surprise, and examine the philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. In "Pollyana vs. Cassandra," for example, James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook debate the future state of the world going forward. Mitchell Waldrop explores why technology forecasting is so poor and why that is likely to remain the case. In the book's final section, "What Could Be," internationally renowned authorities discuss low probability, high-impact contingencies in their area of expertise. For example, Scott Barrett looks at emerging infectious diseases, while Gal Luft and Anne Korin discuss energy security. How can we avoid
