Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2009-12-16

Total Pages: 402

ISBN-13: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.


Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles)

Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles)

Author: James W. Coons

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2015-03-24

Total Pages: 163

ISBN-13: 131749864X

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Originally published in 1994 and the recipient of the Stonier Library Award, this volume evaluates an alternative approach – the sequential filter- to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle. The specific hypothesis is that the sequential filter can produce valuable signals of cyclical peaks and troughs in interest rates. The analysis focusses on US interest rates from April 1953 to December 1988.


Leading Economic Indicators

Leading Economic Indicators

Author: Kajal Lahiri

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1991

Total Pages: 488

ISBN-13: 9780521438582

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Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.


Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation

Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1988-10-03

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 1451953089

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Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in consumer prices, and that the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the fit of regressions of a multi-country consumer price index. However, there does not appear to be a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices.


Business Cycles

Business Cycles

Author: Victor Zarnowitz

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2007-11-01

Total Pages: 613

ISBN-13: 0226978923

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This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.


Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Author: James H. Stock

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2008-04-15

Total Pages: 350

ISBN-13: 0226774740

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The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.


Understanding Economic Forecasts

Understanding Economic Forecasts

Author: David F. Hendry

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 236

ISBN-13: 9780262582421

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How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.


A Companion to Economic Forecasting

A Companion to Economic Forecasting

Author: Michael P. Clements

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2008-04-15

Total Pages: 616

ISBN-13: 140517191X

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A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.


Introductory Econometrics

Introductory Econometrics

Author: Phoebus Dhrymes

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2017-11-21

Total Pages: 637

ISBN-13: 3319659162

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This book provides a rigorous introduction to the principles of econometrics and gives students and practitioners the tools they need to effectively and accurately analyze real data. Thoroughly updated to address the developments in the field that have occurred since the original publication of this classic text, the second edition has been expanded to include two chapters on time series analysis and one on nonparametric methods. Discussions on covariance (including GMM), partial identification, and empirical likelihood have also been added. The selection of topics and the level of discourse give sufficient variety so that the book can serve as the basis for several types of courses. This book is intended for upper undergraduate and first year graduate courses in economics and statistics and also has applications in mathematics and some social sciences where a reasonable knowledge of matrix algebra and probability theory is common. It is also ideally suited for practicing professionals who want to deepen their understanding of the methods they employ. Also available for the new edition is a solutions manual, containing answers to the end-of-chapter exercises.


The Use of Financial Spreads As Indicator Variables

The Use of Financial Spreads As Indicator Variables

Author: E. P. Davis

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1994-03-01

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1451844980

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There has been growing interest in the use of financial spreads as advance indicators of real activity and inflation. Empirical evidence is marshalled on a range of spreads when these are used in vector autoregressive models of the UK and German economies. It is found that they do have significant information, even after allowing for the effects of other influences upon macro-economic activity.