Bayesian Econometrics
Bayesian Econometrics

Author: Mauro Bernardi

Publisher: MDPI

Published: 2020-12-28

Total Pages: 146

ISBN-13: 3039437852

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Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.

Financial Risk Tolerance: A Psychometric Review
Financial Risk Tolerance: A Psychometric Review

Author: John E. Grable

Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation

Published: 2017-06-30

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13: 1944960201

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This content provides financial analysts, investment professionals, and financial planners with a review of how financial risk-tolerance tests can and should be evaluated. It begins by clarifying terms related to risk taking and is followed by a broad overview of two important measurement terms: validity and reliability. It concludes with examples for practice.

Inefficient Markets
Inefficient Markets

Author: Andrei Shleifer

Publisher: OUP Oxford

Published: 2000-03-09

Total Pages: 308

ISBN-13: 0191606898

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The efficient markets hypothesis has been the central proposition in finance for nearly thirty years. It states that securities prices in financial markets must equal fundamental values, either because all investors are rational or because arbitrage eliminates pricing anomalies. This book describes an alternative approach to the study of financial markets: behavioral finance. This approach starts with an observation that the assumptions of investor rationality and perfect arbitrage are overwhelmingly contradicted by both psychological and institutional evidence. In actual financial markets, less than fully rational investors trade against arbitrageurs whose resources are limited by risk aversion, short horizons, and agency problems. The book presents and empirically evaluates models of such inefficient markets. Behavioral finance models both explain the available financial data better than does the efficient markets hypothesis and generate new empirical predictions. These models can account for such anomalies as the superior performance of value stocks, the closed end fund puzzle, the high returns on stocks included in market indices, the persistence of stock price bubbles, and even the collapse of several well-known hedge funds in 1998. By summarizing and expanding the research in behavioral finance, the book builds a new theoretical and empirical foundation for the economic analysis of real-world markets.

Retail Investor Sentiment and Behavior
Retail Investor Sentiment and Behavior

Author: Matthias Burghardt

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2011-03-16

Total Pages: 170

ISBN-13: 3834961701

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Using a unique data set consisting of more than 36.5 million submitted retail investor orders over the course of five years, Matthias Burghardt constructs an innovative retail investor sentiment index. He shows that retail investors’ trading decisions are correlated, that retail investors are contrarians, and that a profitable trading strategy can be based on these aggregated sentiment measures.

Behavioral Finance: The Second Generation
Behavioral Finance: The Second Generation

Author: Meir Statman

Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation

Published: 2019-12-02

Total Pages: 257

ISBN-13: 1944960864

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Behavioral finance presented in this book is the second-generation of behavioral finance. The first generation, starting in the early 1980s, largely accepted standard finance’s notion of people’s wants as “rational” wants—restricted to the utilitarian benefits of high returns and low risk. That first generation commonly described people as “irrational”—succumbing to cognitive and emotional errors and misled on their way to their rational wants. The second generation describes people as normal. It begins by acknowledging the full range of people’s normal wants and their benefits—utilitarian, expressive, and emotional—distinguishes normal wants from errors, and offers guidance on using shortcuts and avoiding errors on the way to satisfying normal wants. People’s normal wants include financial security, nurturing children and families, gaining high social status, and staying true to values. People’s normal wants, even more than their cognitive and emotional shortcuts and errors, underlie answers to important questions of finance, including saving and spending, portfolio construction, asset pricing, and market efficiency.

Quantile Regression
Quantile Regression

Author: Roger Koenker

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2005-05-05

Total Pages: 367

ISBN-13: 1139444719

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Quantile regression is gradually emerging as a unified statistical methodology for estimating models of conditional quantile functions. By complementing the exclusive focus of classical least squares regression on the conditional mean, quantile regression offers a systematic strategy for examining how covariates influence the location, scale and shape of the entire response distribution. This monograph is the first comprehensive treatment of the subject, encompassing models that are linear and nonlinear, parametric and nonparametric. The author has devoted more than 25 years of research to this topic. The methods in the analysis are illustrated with a variety of applications from economics, biology, ecology and finance. The treatment will find its core audiences in econometrics, statistics, and applied mathematics in addition to the disciplines cited above.

Data Science for Economics and Finance
Data Science for Economics and Finance

Author: Sergio Consoli

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2021

Total Pages: 357

ISBN-13: 3030668916

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This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.

A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing
A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing

Author: Hersh Shefrin

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2008-05-19

Total Pages: 636

ISBN-13: 0080482244

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Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition

Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading
Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading

Author: H. Nejat Seyhun

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2000-02-28

Total Pages: 452

ISBN-13: 9780262692342

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Learn how to profit from information about insider trading. The term insider trading refers to the stock transactions of the officers, directors, and large shareholders of a firm. Many investors believe that corporate insiders, informed about their firms' prospects, buy and sell their own firm's stock at favorable times, reaping significant profits. Given the extra costs and risks of an active trading strategy, the key question for stock market investors is whether the publicly available insider-trading information can help them to outperform a simple passive index fund. Basing his insights on an exhaustive data set that captures information on all reported insider trading in all publicly held firms over the past twenty-one years—over one million transactions!—H. Nejat Seyhun shows how investors can use insider information to their advantage. He documents the magnitude and duration of the stock price movements following insider trading, determinants of insiders' profits, and the risks associated with imitating insider trading. He looks at the likely performance of individual firms and of the overall stock market, and compares the value of what one can learn from insider trading with commonly used measures of value such as price-earnings ratio, book-to-market ratio, and dividend yield.

Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics
Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics

Author: Seungho Jung

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-10-22

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 1557759677

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We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.