Predicting Active Duty Air Force Pilot Attrition Given an Anticipated Increase in Major Airline Pilot Hiring
Predicting Active Duty Air Force Pilot Attrition Given an Anticipated Increase in Major Airline Pilot Hiring

Author: Nolan J. Sweeney

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 112

ISBN-13:

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The U.S. Air Force has traditionally been a significant source of pilots for the major airline industries. For much of the 2000s, two wars and a sputtering economy aided in managing the attrition of Air Force pilots. But now, amid myriad converging factors, there is a large projected increase in major airline pilot hiring that resembles the late 1990s surge, in which the Air Force endured its largest loss of pilots since the post-Vietnam War pilot exodus. Using logistic regression analysis and focusing on active duty Air Force pilots in the first three years following completion of their initial active duty service commitment (ADSC), this dissertation predicts future pilot attrition given the estimated increase in major airline hiring and recommends several policies that the Air Force can implement to better weather an increase in attrition. This dissertation finds that attrition depends strongly on major airline hiring. Additionally, annual attrition each year from 2015 through 2020 is expected to be above the 2002-2012 annual average. The impact of attrition is not spread evenly among the aircraft communities, and, even though mobility and fighter pilots account for the first- and second-highest proportions of future total attrition, respectively, it is the fighter community that is in the middle of a pilot shortage that is not likely to improve for at least the rest of the decade. For these reasons, this dissertation recommends re-instituting the 50 percent Aviator Continuation Pay up-front lump-sum option and increasing the yearly value to $30,000 in 2018 for fighter pilots following completion of their initial ADSC. Additionally, it is recommended that the Air Force index Aviation Career Incentive Pay to inflation for at least all active duty pilots with 6-13 years of aviation service. Enacting both measures would be greatly costeffective in terms of the training costs retained, and doing so would help in lowering pilot attrition in all communities, and especially in the fighter community.

Modeling the Departure of Military Pilots from the Service
Modeling the Departure of Military Pilots from the Service

Author: Marc N. Elliott

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 70

ISBN-13: 9780833029768

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High numbers of voluntary departures from the services by military pilots have periodically caused considerable concern among military administrators and policymakers, both recently and in previous periods of high attrition. In this study, the authors explore some determinants of the fixed-wing (airplane) pilot attrition problem among male pilots in the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, and the responsiveness of attrition to changes in military compensation. The authors estimated a pilot attrition model that examines the impact on attrition from factors such as compensation, civilian airline hiring, and deployment. This study produced several noteworthy findings, including: (1) Increases in major airline hiring tend to increase military pilot voluntary departures to a great degree in the Air Force and to a lesser extent in the Navy; (2) although attrition was found to be quite responsive to bonus pay, counteracting a sizable increase in major airline hiring could be costly, particularly for the Air Force; (3) the significant Impact of civilian major airline hiring on pilot attrition calls for a pilot management plan that will enable the armed forces to respond to strong outside in

Pilot Retention - A 'Gray' Issue? The Impact of Airline Hiring of Retirement Eligible Pilots on Air Force Leadership
Pilot Retention - A 'Gray' Issue? The Impact of Airline Hiring of Retirement Eligible Pilots on Air Force Leadership

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 1988

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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In the last three years the major airlines have relaxed their rigid standards for employment to include age, vision, height, weight, education, and flying experience. As a result, literally every Air Force pilot currently qualifies for employment, and the major airlines are aggressively recruiting the Air Force's most experienced pilots. The study determines an increasing number of retirement eligible pilots are leaving the Air Force, some even turning down promotion to colonel, to pursue a career in the civilian airline industry. The study concludes that this trend will have a negative impact on the number of quality pilots who remain on active duty beyond the 20-year point to fill critical command and staff duties. Retention of the Air Force's most experienced pilot corps is a critical personnel issue.

A Methodology for Forecasting Voluntary Retention Rates for Air Force Pilots
A Methodology for Forecasting Voluntary Retention Rates for Air Force Pilots

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 1987

Total Pages: 104

ISBN-13:

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The purpose of this study is to develop a model that more accurately forecasts voluntary retention rates in the short term for Air Force pilots. Specifically, the model consists of appropriate and available predictors used to compute one year ahead forecasts of voluntary retention rates for Air Force pilots with seven through eleven years of service. The types of predictors collected for study were indicators of the strength of the economy, indicators of the growth of the airline industry, and indicators of the relative wage difference between the military and the civilian labor force. Classical regression analysis was used to predict the pilot retention rates on the basis of the predictor variables studied. A logarithmic transform of the dependent variable was used to stabilize the variance of the the error terms. The criteria established for selecting the best model were model performance, prediction potential, and explanatory significance. The best model included the following independent variables: indicator variables for the year of service groups, a variable for the annual number of new airline pilot hires, the unemployment rate lagged one year, and a pay compensation measure lagged one year. Thus, estimates were required only for the airline hires predictor in order to forecast pilot retention rates. Validation tests were performed on the best model for years 1986 and 1987. In each test, the 90 percent prediction intervals covered the actual pilot retention rate for each year of service group. Among the recommendations provided to improve the accuracy of the pilot retention rate forecasts was to improve the accuracy of the airline hire forecasts and to find other significant, leading indicators of pilot retention.

Increasing Fighter Pilot Retention with Improved Basing Decisions
Increasing Fighter Pilot Retention with Improved Basing Decisions

Author: Russell H. Williams

Publisher:

Published: 2021

Total Pages: 103

ISBN-13:

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The Air Force currently faces a substantial pilot shortage. Two decades of elevated operational tempos, tight budgets, and robust airline hiring have motivated pilots to leave active duty service in record numbers, eroding the Service's stock of experienced aviators. The global recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic may have temporarily subdued commercial airlines' demand for military trained pilots, but these conditions won't last forever, and soon the Air Force will once again need to retain experienced aircrew when the airlines are hiring. This dissertation leverages a value-added model to identify changes to Air Force basing policy that could improve fighter pilot retention outcomes. Using a value-added model to analyze twenty years of fighter pilot retention data highlights significant variation in retention outcomes at installations across the USAF's basing posture. Comparing retention outcomes to the communities surrounding military installations can demonstrate pilots' revealed installation preferences. Investigating recent retention trends at prospective F-35 bases yields insights into the potential retention consequences of future basing decisions. This dissertation recommends that the Air Force continue to gather as much data as possible about pilots' personal and professional preferences, so that individuals can be matched with tailored, retention improving assignments. Next, the Air Force should use these preferences to more fully understand pilots' revealed assignment and installation preferences. Lastly, these preferences should be incorporated into the Air Force's Strategic Basing Process to move the Service towards a basing posture that passively supports pilot retention with every basing decision.

Military Personnel
Military Personnel

Author: Mark E. Gebicke

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 2000-04

Total Pages: 74

ISBN-13: 9780788187254

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DoD reported shortages of 2,000 pilots at the end of FY1998 and projected that shortages would continue for several years. Retaining qualified pilots is important to ensure that operational requirements can be met and to recoup the substantial investments the services make in training their pilots. This report reviews and identifies reasons for the military pilot shortages and offers solutions. It determined: the services' reported and projected estimates of their pilot shortages; the basis for the services' pilot requirements; key factors that account for the reported pilot shortages; and concerns that are causing pilots to consider leaving the military. Tables.

I Hear what You are Saying
I Hear what You are Saying

Author: Christopher M. Carson

Publisher:

Published: 2017

Total Pages: 147

ISBN-13:

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"Over the last two decades the US Air Force (USAF) has consistently produced approximately 1000 pilots a year to meet their operational flying and mission requirements. And during this time period, approximately 1000 pilots a year voluntarily leave active duty. These departures could be from retirement, permanent loss of flight status, or the end of an initial commitment. Over this time, this stock and flow pattern of production and departures from the Air Force has been sufficient to meet the requirements of the USAF. However, the USAF has begun to see a significant rise in the expected number of pilots leaving active duty, specifically those pilots at the end of their initial commitment. As of March 2017, the total force of pilots in the USAF is 1,569 pilots less than the total number required. To make matters worse, by the 2020's the shortage of pilots in the active duty force is expected to increase to well over 2,000 pilots. Many researchers believe pilots are separating from the USAF because of an increase in major airline hiring because of the better pay and quality of life offered. However, these external pull factors are but a subset of reasons. Failure to understand what factors are truly impacting the pilot's decision to stay or go, and how these factors interact, leaves the USAF and the country potentially unprepared to fly, fight, and win. Using data from the USAF 2015 Active Duty Career Decisions Survey, this dissertation employs a range of qualitative data analysis techniques to examine the open-ended response questions related to a pilot's decision to remain or depart the service. This study is intended to inform USAF senior leadership about the factors and themes important to rated crew force retention decisions. With this knowledge, the USAF's leadership can make more informed policy decisions related manpower and personnel."--Publisher's description.