Government Budget Forecasting
Government Budget Forecasting

Author: Jinping Sun

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-09-25

Total Pages: 637

ISBN-13: 1351565117

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Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes: Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.

The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting
The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting

Author: Daniel Williams

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2019-10-14

Total Pages: 448

ISBN-13: 3030181952

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This Handbook is a comprehensive anthology of up-to-date chapters contributed by current researchers in budget forecasting. Editors Daniel Williams and Thad Calabrese had previously found substantial deficiencies in public budgeting forecast literature with current research failing to address such matters as practices related to forecasting expenditure factors, the consequences of forecast bias, or empirical examination of the effectiveness of many deterministic methods actually used by many governments. This volume comprehensively addresses the state of knowledge about budget forecasting for practitioners, academics, and students and serves as a comprehensive resource for instruction alongside serving as a reference book for those engaged in budget forecasting practice.

Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management
Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management

Author: Mr.Jack Diamond

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-07-01

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13: 9781557757876

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Traditionally, economics training in public finances has focused more on tax than public expenditure issues, and within expenditure, more on policy considerations than the more mundane matters of public expenditure management. For many years, the IMF's Public Expenditure Management Division has answered specific questions raised by fiscal economists on such missions. Based on this experience, these guidelines arose from the need to provide a general overview of the principles and practices observed in three key aspects of public expenditure management: budget preparation, budget execution, and cash planning. For each aspect of public expenditure management, the guidelines identify separately the differing practices in four groups of countries - the francophone systems, the Commonwealth systems, Latin America, and those in the transition economies. Edited by Barry H. Potter and Jack Diamond, this publication is intended for a general fiscal, or a general budget, advisor interested in the macroeconomic dimension of public expenditure management.

Economic and fiscal outlook
Economic and fiscal outlook

Author: Office for Budget Responsibility

Publisher: The Stationery Office

Published: 2010-11-29

Total Pages: 164

ISBN-13: 9780101797924

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The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.

The 2004 Pre-budget Report
The 2004 Pre-budget Report

Author: Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. Treasury Committee

Publisher:

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 150

ISBN-13: 9780215021441

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The Committee has examined the Treasury's Pre-Budget Report (PBR) (Cm. 6408, ISBN 010164082X) published in December 2004, which set forecasts for the economy and public finances and reported on the implementation of the Government's long-term goals. Conclusions reached by the Committee include: that the UK's presidencies in 2005 of both the G8 and the EU puts the Government in a strong position to play a positive role in advancing discussions on global economic reform and fairer trade with developing countries; the Treasury's growth forecast for 2005 is more optimistic than the external consensus, although the gap probably lies within the bounds of forecasting error and the Treasury's recent forecasting record for economic growth has been good; there are concerns that it is unlikely the Treasury will be able to meet its 'golden rule' for current borrowing levels for public finances. The Committee also restates its previous criticism for the short period of notice given for publication of the PBR.

Pre-budget Report 2008
Pre-budget Report 2008

Author: Great Britain. Treasury

Publisher: The Stationery Office

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 244

ISBN-13: 9780101748421

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The 2008 Pre-Budget Report presents updated assessments and forecasts of the economy and public finances, and reports on how in the face of major global economic shocks the Government intends to support the economy, businesses and households through these uncertain times while delivering its long-term goals. Measures announced include: temporarily reducing the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 15 per cent from1 December 2008 to 31 December 2009; bringing forward £3 billion of capital spending from 2010-11 including introducing a green stimulus supporting low carbon growth and jobs; introducing a new additional higher rate of income tax of 45 per cent for those with incomes above £150,000 from April 2011; increasing national insurance contributions by 0.5 per cent from April 2011; increasing alcohol and tobacco duties; a two pence per litre increase in fuel duty from 1 December). Immediate action to help those individuals and businesses most affected by the economic downturn include: increases in the income tax personal allowance; bringing forward the increase in Child Benefit; increases of the Child Tax Credit and a payment of £60 to all pensioners; help through mortgage rescue and Support for Mortgage Interest schemes for eligible homeowners in difficulty and a commitment from major mortgage lenders not to initiate repossession action within at least three months of an owner-occupier going into arrears; an additional £1.3 billion to support for the unemployed to find a new job; measures to help small and medium-sized enterprises facing credit constraints; a new HMRC Business Payment Support Service to allow businesses in temporary financial difficulty to pay their HMRC tax bills on a timetable they can afford; and more generous tax relief for businesses now making losses and the modification of a number of planned tax reforms, including vehicle excise duty, air passenger duty, and the deferral of the increase in the small companies' rate of corporation tax.