Pension Sustainability in China: Fragmented Administration and Population Aging aims to investigate the impact of fragmentation and population ageing on pension sustainability in China. The book demonstrates how pension sustainability is compromised by various adverse effects produced by fragmentation, such as the moral hazard caused by the disarticulated intergovernmental fiscal responsibility. An overlapping generations (OLG) model is updated with the latest demographic data and is used to assess the impact of population ageing on pension sustainability. The book considers whether adjustment in retirement age can ensure long-term financial sustainability. It explores how, compared to the population ageing, the issues stemming from the fragmentation pose a more insidious threat to pension sustainability in China.
Historical background and overview of the current system -- Population ageing and pension sustainability in China -- Fragmented administration and pension sustainability in China -- Migrant workers and pension sustainability in China -- Discussion and conclusion references -- Appendix A: interview guides -- Appendix B: calculation for the actuarial present value of buy-in option for the UES.
Comprehensive reform of China’s pension and social security system is an essential element of achieving its objectives of a harmonious society and sustainable development. Over the past few years, the Government has considered various options and initiated several significant measures. In 2009 the authorities established a national framework for rural pensions, the Rural Pension Pilot Program (RPPP) and in 2011 a Pilot Social Pension Insurance for Urban Residents announced. In this process, it has articulated principles for a reformed urban pension system (indicated by 12 Chinese characters ) which are “broad coverage, protects at the basic level, is multi-layered, and sustainable” while the principles for the rural system (indicated by 12 characters ) are “broad coverage, protects at the basic level, flexible, and sustainable.” These principles underpin the commitments made at the 17th Party Congress towards a comprehensive and integrated social security system by 2020. Although substantial reforms of the pension system have been undertaken over the past two decades, some policymakers have suggested that additional reforms are needed to meet the needs of China’s rapidly changing economy and society. Issues such as legacy costs, system fragmentation and limited coverage have not been fully addressed. At the same time, many new challenges have emerged such as rapid urbanization, increased income inequality and urban-rural disparities, greater informalization of the labor force, changes in family structure, and the effects of increased globalization. This report has been prepared at the request of the Ministry of Finance to develop a medium term vision of a holistic framework that could be realized by 2040 for strengthening old age income protection in China which is consistent with the principles outlined in the 12 characters and design options towards achieving it. The main body of this report outlines this vision – summarizing the key features of a proposed medium-term pension system – while the annexes provide the deeper analysis and context which underpins the recommendations contained herein.
Since 1978, when China started remaking its economy, it has also embarked on an unparalleled effort at remaking its pension system to accommodate its hybrid economic model. This book tells the story of how China has managed to build a national pension system that now covers most of its population and what this system holds for its future. This book covers the following topics: evolution of Chinese pension system to its current form; benefit design, financing, and governance of current pension system; challenges facing the pension system, especially the looming funding shortage due to accelerating population ageing; solutions to the challenges; and lessons learned from the Chinese experience. Due to the fragmentation of pension system among 31 mainland provinces, we also select three provinces as case studies to help readers gain a richer understanding of how economic and geographic diversity has created disparity in pension benefit design and financing between provinces and within a province and how such disparity adds complexity and challenges to the pension system. This timely and important study provides up-to-date and in-depth analyses for policymakers and stakeholders to make informed decisions and will be relevant for all scholars and students of public administration and public policy studies.
China's population is aging rapidly: the old age dependency ratio will rise from 11 percent in 1999 to 25 percent in 2030 and 36 percent in 2050. Currently, three workers support one retiree; without reform, the system dependency ratio will climb to 69 percent in 2030 and 79 percent in 2050. The pension system has been in deficit, with an implicit pension debt in 2000 as high as 71 percent of GDP. The lack of an effective sustainable pension systemn is a serious obstacle to Chinese economic reform.
This book tells the story of how China has managed to build a national pension system that now covers most of its population and what this system holds for its future.
