Zambia's failure with macroeconomic reform - including exchange- rate reform - is the result of macroeconomic (espicially fiscal) laxity. And the exchange- rate premium is likely to rise as terms of trade worsen, foreign aid declines, and expectations of devaluations rise.
'...the most definitive study of the subject, assembling an all-star cast to address the many outstanding questions and succeeding beyond expectations in combining elegant theory and state of the art econometrics to reach very sensible policy conclusions.' - Mohsin S. Khan, Deputy Director, Research Department, International Monetary Fund ' This book fills an important vacuum in the literature of the economic consequences of parallel markets and should prove of great value to students of economic development and to policy-makers in developing countries as they struggle to reform their exchange rate and trade incentive systems. Here they will find all that they need to know.' - Vittorio Corbo, Professor of Economics, Universidad Catolica de Chile 'A most comprehensive treatment of the relationships between parallel foreign exchange markets and macroeconomic policies, both across countries and over time. The book substantially enhances our understanding of how these systems work in practice and will be of great interest to policy-makers, researchers and graduate students of economic policy.' - Samuel M. Wangwe, Professor of Economics, University of Dar es Salaam and Executive Director, Economic and Social Research Foundation, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania This book examines extensive empirical evidence on the macroeconomic implications of parallel exchange rates in developing countries. Eight case-studies from Africa, Latin America, and Turkey provide detailed evidence on the emergence of parallel exchange rates, their impact on macroeconomic performance, and the criteria for successful exchange-rate unification. A chapter on European dual exchange rates summarizes the contrasting experience of industrial countries. An overview chapter lays out the analytical framework, assesses the evidence, and draws policy conclusions.
Many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries liberalized their economies in the 1980s and early 1990s. This paper reviews the foreign exchange regime reforms in selected SSA, and their associated macroeconomic policies and economic performance during and after these reforms were undertaken. Before liberalization, most of the reviewed countries were characterized by extensive foreign exchange rationing, sizeable black market premiums, and declining per capita real income. Today, the countries that successfully reformed look markedly different. Rationing and parallel market spreads are a distant memory, and per capita income has increased sharply.
The evidence of black market exchange rate systems and their impact on macroeconomic performance is well documented in this fully researched study of the problem. The book offers policy conclusions after assessing the evidence.
This handbook offers a comprehensive and authoritative account of the Zambian economy, including past and current trends. The Zambian economy has evolved from simple and fragmented agrarian activities at the turn of the 20th Century into a wide range of organized and regulated modern economic activities today. While the economy has largely revolved around the mining industry since the early 1920s when the extraction of copper and other mineral ores on the Copperbelt begun, there has been a gradual broadening of economic activities over time, with services now accounting for almost two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP). This book shows that since colonial times, one of the persistent items on the economic development agenda in what is today known as Zambia has been the need to diversify the economy to reduce dependence on mining, in terms of foreign exchange earnings and public revenue. While the need to diversify the economy has been well-acknowledged by successive Zambia governments, including the current government, achieving this goal has proved to be elusive so far. By presenting a collection of well-researched and empirically supported chapters on the key areas of the Zambian economy, this volume gives readers a good sense of where the Zambian economy has come from, where it is at the moment, but also highlights the challenges and prospects for economic growth.