Overcoming Cognitive Biases
Overcoming Cognitive Biases

Author: E. Scott Fruehwald

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

Published: 2017-05-28

Total Pages: 160

ISBN-13: 9781546902683

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Comedian Bill Maher recently declared, "Apple, Google, Facebook, they are essentially drug dealers." Similarly, 60 Minutes had a segment on "brain hacking." What were Maher and 60 Minutes talking about? Brain biases that clog up our thinking and allow us to be manipulated by others. The human thinking process is imperfect. The brain evolved. Parts of our brains today are remnants of the brains our early ancestors had, brains which had developed to survive under very different conditions from today. These remnants produce cognitive biases-ways of thinking that are different from reality. Individuals need to overcome their cognitive biases in order to think more clearly and avoid being manipulated by others. I have written this book for anyone who wants to understand cognitive biases and begin to overcome them. First, I give you the big picture. I discuss the basics of cognitive biases and the dangers of biased thinking. Then, I ask you to look at your inner self through a series of questions and exercises. Next, I deal with specific cognitive biases, such as optimism biases, negativity biases, biases concerning others, and behavioral economic biases, and I help you deal with these biases through a series of exercises. Then, I ask you to apply what you have learned in more complicated exercises. Finally, the Epilogue shows you how Uber is using brain biases to control their drivers and how smartphone and social media are employing these biases to get you to stay on-line longer.

Cognitive Biases in Visualizations
Cognitive Biases in Visualizations

Author: Geoffrey Ellis

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-09-27

Total Pages: 185

ISBN-13: 3319958313

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This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.

The Great Mental Models, Volume 1
The Great Mental Models, Volume 1

Author: Shane Parrish

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2024-10-15

Total Pages: 209

ISBN-13: 0593719972

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Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.

Cognitive Illusions
Cognitive Illusions

Author: Rüdiger F Pohl

Publisher: Psychology Press

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 452

ISBN-13: 113584495X

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Cognitive Illusions investigates a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. At the beginning of each chapter, leading researchers in the field introduce the background to phenomena such as illusions of control, overconfidence and hindsight bias. This is followed by an explanation of the experimental context in which these illusions can be investigated and a theoretical discussion drawing conclusions about the wider implications of these fallacy and bias effects. Written with researchers and instructors in mind, this tightly edited, reader-friendly text provides both an overview of research in the area and many lively pedagogic features such as chapter summaries, further reading lists and suggestions for classroom demonstrations.

Noise
Noise

Author: Daniel Kahneman

Publisher: Little, Brown

Published: 2021-05-18

Total Pages: 429

ISBN-13: 031645138X

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From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 2 Volume Set
The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 2 Volume Set

Author: Gideon Keren

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2016-02-16

Total Pages: 1056

ISBN-13: 1118468392

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A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes

The Optimism Bias
The Optimism Bias

Author: Tali Sharot

Publisher: Vintage

Published: 2011-06-14

Total Pages: 273

ISBN-13: 0307379833

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Psychologists have long been aware that most people maintain an irrationally positive outlook on life—but why? Turns out, we might be hardwired that way. In this absorbing exploration, Tali Sharot—one of the most innovative neuroscientists at work today—demonstrates that optimism may be crucial to human existence. The Optimism Bias explores how the brain generates hope and what happens when it fails; how the brains of optimists and pessimists differ; why we are terrible at predicting what will make us happy; how emotions strengthen our ability to recollect; how anticipation and dread affect us; how our optimistic illusions affect our financial, professional, and emotional decisions; and more. Drawing on cutting-edge science, The Optimism Bias provides us with startling new insight into the workings of the brain and the major role that optimism plays in determining how we live our lives.

Twenty-one Mental Models That Can Change Policing
Twenty-one Mental Models That Can Change Policing

Author: Renée J. Mitchell

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2021-09-16

Total Pages: 255

ISBN-13: 1000402754

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This book goes beyond other police leadership books to teach practitioners how to think about policing in a structured way that synthesizes criminological theory, statistics, research design, applied research, and what works and what doesn’t in policing into Mental Models. A Mental Model is a representation of how something works. Using a Mental Model framework to simplify complex concepts, readers will take away an in-depth understanding of how cognitive biases affect our ability to understand and interpret data, what empirical research says about effective police interventions, how statistical data should be structured for management meetings, and how to evaluate interventions for efficiency and effectiveness. While evidence-based practice is critical to advancing the police profession, it is limited in scope, and is only part of what is necessary to support sustainable change in policing. Policing requires a scientifically based framework to understand and interpret data in a way that minimizes cognitive bias to allow for better responses to complex problems. Data and research have advanced so rapidly in the last several decades that it is difficult for even the most ambitious of police leaders to keep pace. The Twenty-one Mental Models were synthesized to create a framework for any police, public, or community leader to better understand how cognitive bias contributes to misunderstanding data and gives the reader the tools to overcome those biases to better serve their communities. The book is intended for a wide range of audiences, including law enforcement and community leaders; scholars and policy experts who specialize in policing; students of criminal justice, organizations, and management; reporters and journalists; individuals who aspire to police careers; and citizen consumers of information about policing. Anyone who is going to make decisions about their communities based on data has a responsibility to be numerate and this book Twenty-one Mental Models That Can Change Policing: A Framework For Using Data and Research For Overcoming Cognitive Bias, will help you become just that.

Judgment Under Uncertainty
Judgment Under Uncertainty

Author: Daniel Kahneman

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1982-04-30

Total Pages: 574

ISBN-13: 9780521284141

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Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences
Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences

Author: Richard M. Adler

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-02-10

Total Pages: 310

ISBN-13: 3030327140

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This title provides managers, executives and other professionals with an innovative method for critical decision-making. The book explains the reasons for decision failures using the Law of Unintended Consequences. This account draws on the work of sociologist Robert K. Merton, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and economist Herbert Simon to identify two primary causes⁠: cognitive biases and bounded rationality. It introduces an innovative method for “test driving” decisions that addresses both causes by combining scenario planning and “what-if” simulations. This method enables professionals to learn safely from virtual mistakes rather than real ones. It also provides four sample test drives of realistic critical decisions as well as two instructional videos to illustrate this new method. This book provides leaders and their support teams with important new tools for analyzing and refining complex decisions that are critical to organizational well-being and survival.