Output Loss and Recovery from Banking and Currency Crises

Output Loss and Recovery from Banking and Currency Crises

Author: Apanard Penny Prabha

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13:

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Relatively few studies in the financial crisis literature have attempted to examine the connection between financial crises and the real economy, in part due to concerns regarding an appropriate methodology to use in estimating output losses associated with a crisis. Among these studies, two methodologies (a dummy variable approach and an output gap approach) are employed to capture the magnitude of output reductions. The analytical comparison in this study suggests that the latter approach is preferred, but is itself subject to many controversial estimation issues. The estimated output losses for individual crisis episodes seem to be sensitive to how these estimation criteria are defined. This study also provides a review of empirical studies that investigate crisis-response policies and domestic regulatory and institutional structures that allow governments to respond in a timely and effectively manner to crises, thereby reducing the severity of output losses.


Resolving Systemic Financial Crises

Resolving Systemic Financial Crises

Author: Daniela Klingebiel

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13: 2004090715

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"Claessens, Klingebiel, and Laeven analyze the role of institutions in resolving systemic banking crises for a broad sample of countries. Banking crises are fiscally costly, especially when policies like substantial liquidity support, explicit government guarantees on financial institutions' liabilities, and forbearance from prudential regulations are used. Higher fiscal outlays do not, however, accelerate the recovery from a crisis. Better institutions--less corruption, improved law and order, legal system, and bureaucracy--do. The authors find these results to be relatively robust to estimation techniques, including controlling for the effects of a poor institutional environment on the likelihood of financial crisis and the size of fiscal costs. Their results suggest that countries should use strict policies to resolve a crisis and use the crisis as an opportunity to implement medium-term structural reforms, which will also help avoid future systemic crises. This paper--a product of the Financial Sector Operations and Policy Department--is part of a larger effort in the department to study financial crisis resolution"--World Bank web site.


Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-01-30

Total Pages: 66

ISBN-13: 1475561008

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This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.


Currency Crises and Output Dynamics

Currency Crises and Output Dynamics

Author: Arabinda Basistha

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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Output effects of currency crises are often estimated to be negative and persistent. A new banking crisis database allows us to construct pure currency collapses that are not associated with banking crises. The estimates show that countries facing a pure currency crisis have fully recovery of output in the long-run while twin crisis leads to larger output losses. Allowing for long lags is a critical element in understanding the recovery dynamics. Further analysis reveals that there is a similar lag in the association between export growth and recovery dynamics.


Financial Crises, Investment Slumps, and Slow Recoveries

Financial Crises, Investment Slumps, and Slow Recoveries

Author: Ms. Valerie Cerra

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-06-25

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 1484325273

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One of the most puzzling facts in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is that output across advanced and emerging economies recovered at a much slower rate than anticipated by most forecasting agencies. This paper delves into the mechanics behind the observed slow recovery and the associated permanent output losses in the aftermath of the crisis, with a particular focus on the role played by financial frictions and investment dynamics. The paper provides two main contributions. First, we empirically document that lower investment during financial crises is the key factor leading to permanent loss of output and total factor productivity (TFP) in the wake of a crisis. Second, we develop a DSGE model with financial frictions and capital-embodied technological change capable of reproducing the empirical facts. We also evaluate the role of financial policies in stabilizing output and TFP in response to disruptions in financial markets.


Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Author: Michael P. Dooley

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2007-11-01

Total Pages: 456

ISBN-13: 0226155420

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The management of financial crises in emerging markets is a vital and high-stakes challenge in an increasingly global economy. For this reason, it's also a highly contentious issue in today's public policy circles. In this book, leading economists-many of whom have also participated in policy debates on these issues-consider how best to reduce the frequency and cost of such crises. The contributions here explore the management process from the beginning of a crisis to the long-term effects of the techniques used to minimize it. The first three chapters focus on the earliest responses and the immediate defense of a currency under attack, exploring whether unnecessary damage to economies can be avoided by adopting the right response within the first few days of a financial crisis. Next, contributors examine the adjustment programs that follow, considering how to design these programs so that they shorten the recovery phase, encourage economic growth, and minimize the probability of future difficulties. Finally, the last four papers analyze the actual effects of adjustment programs, asking whether they accomplish what they are designed to do-and whether, as many critics assert, they impose disproportionate costs on the poorest members of society. Recent high-profile currency crises have proven not only how harmful they can be to neighboring economies and trading partners, but also how important policy responses can be in determining their duration and severity. Economists and policymakers will welcome the insightful evaluations in this important volume, and those of its companion, Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey A. Frankel's Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets.


Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications

Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications

Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-11-16

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1484325753

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All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for shifts in trend output and the puzzling inconsistency of output dynamics with other cyclical components of production. The ‘output gap’ can be ill-conceived, poorly measured, and inconsistent over time. Persistent losses require more buffers and crisis-avoidance policies, affecting tradeoffs in prudential, macroeconomic, and reserve management policies. The frequency and depth of crises are key determinants of long-term growth and drive a new stylized model of economic development.


Inside the Crisis

Inside the Crisis

Author: Ms.Enrica Detragiache

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2000-08-01

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 145185739X

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Using aggregate and bank level data for several countries, the paper studies what happens to the banking system in the aftermath of a banking crisis. Contemporary crises are not accompanied by declines in aggregate bank deposits, and credit does not fall relative to output, although the growth of both deposits and credit slows down substantially. Output recovery begins in the second year after the crisis and is not led by a resumption in credit growth. Banks, including the stronger ones, reallocate their asset portfolio away from loans.


The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Crisis

The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Crisis

Author: Ms.Wenjie Chen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-04-26

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13: 1498311687

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This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007–08. Sluggish investment was a key channel through which these losses registered, accompanied by long-lasting capital and total factor productivity shortfalls relative to precrisis trends. Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced postcrisis variation in output. Underscoring the importance of macroprudential policies and effective supervision, countries with greater financial vulnerabilities in the precrisis years suffered larger output losses after the crisis. Countries with stronger precrisis fiscal positions and those with more flexible exchange rate regimes experienced smaller losses. Unprecedented and exceptional policy actions taken after the crisis helped mitigate countries’ postcrisis output losses.


World Economic Outlook, October 2018

World Economic Outlook, October 2018

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-10-09

Total Pages: 215

ISBN-13: 148437679X

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Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.