HCSS’ original term “nowcasting” – as opposed to forecasting – describes the process of monitoring, depicting, and analyzing ongoing developments in international relations as they occur. Once again, our study “Nowcasting Geodynamics” uses a rich base of quantitative data to move beyond the anecdotal, and towards the systematic. We intend our empirical approach to add to debates across all domains – diplomatic, economics, legal, military, etc. – and across all countries, whether they are great powers such as the United States or China, or smaller but strategically important states, such as Indonesia, and Egypt. This year’s analysis covers the geodynamic trends of countries across the world and traverses the different domains in order to give perspectives on the “now” trends, and where they might lead us in the future. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.
Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American population elected Trump, in November. We are worried but certainly not surprised by the volatility of contemporary international relations. In previous editions of our contribution to the Dutch government’s Strategic Monitor, we already observed a surge in assertive behavior, noted a dangerous uptick in crises, and warned for the contagiousness of political violence. The current volatility is not a coincidence, but rather the result of fundamental disturbances of the global order that are greatly amplified by rapid technological developments. Most mainstream explanations of recent turbulence focus on power transitions (the decline of the West and the rise of the rest), the concomitant return to more aggressive forms of power politics, and a backlash against globalization. What strikes us is that many of the explanations ignore what we consider one of the most striking mega trends that is reshaping the dynamics of power: the ongoing process of disintermediation. The StratMon 2016-2017 analyzes global trends in confrontation, cooperation and conflict based on different datasets. This year the report also contains case studies on Turkey, Moldova and The rise and fall of ISIS. Chapters analyzing the many faces of political violence and 'the other side of the security coin' are also included.
National security starts with strategic anticipation: what are the risks for the Dutch national security? How can the Netherlands prepare for this, and what choices and investments are needed in order to do so?
Over the last few years, the local value of mobility and information in our society has grown tremendously. As the importance of Information and Communication Te- nologies (ICT) increases, we expect more changes in future mobility behavior. This includes not only mobility behavior for the single user, but also for the transportation of goods and infrastructure operators. It will also affect the regulation of resources and political decision-making. Both, data and mobility become more connected. To cope effectively with the anticipated changes, we must expand our focus and take current developments in both areas into account. The topic of the Lakeside Conference 2010, Data and Mobility – Transforming Information into Intelligent Traffic and Transportation Services, was chosen to underline the importance of information and mobility in transport and to offer an opportunity to discuss and question current activities in this sector. We will consider intermodal concepts and deployments in particular, where data transfer plays a major role, as this could help to reduce the current lack of infrastructure capacity (especially on roads and at airports and seaports). Using modern technologies, traffic mana- ment could become more sustainable and efficient. The Lakeside Conference is, again, organized by a consortium composed of the Lakeside Technology Park, the Austrian Transport Telematic Cluster, AustriaTech and the American Embassy in Austria.
The two-volume set IFIP AICT 392 and 393 constitutes the refereed post-conference proceedings of the 6th IFIP TC 5, SIG 5.1 International Conference on Computer and Computing Technologies in Agriculture, CCTA 2012, held in Zhangjiajie, China, in October 2012. The 108 revised papers presented were carefully selected from numerous submissions. They cover a wide range of interesting theories and applications of information technology in agriculture, including Internet of things and cloud computing; simulation models and decision-support systems for agricultural production; smart sensor, monitoring, and control technology; traceability and e-commerce technology; computer vision, computer graphics, and virtual reality; the application of information and communication technology in agriculture; and universal information service technology and service systems development in rural areas. The 55 papers included in the second volume focus on GIS, GPS, RS, and Precision Farming.
This volume is the outcome of contributions from 51 scientists who were invited to expose their latest findings on precipitation research and in particular, on the measurement, estimation and prediction of precipitation. The reader is presented with a blend of theoretical, mathematical and technical treatise of precipitation science but also with authentic applications, ranging from local field experiments and country-scale campaigns to multinational space endeavors.
This book introduces an integrated conceptual framework of the China Seismic Experimental Site (CSES), describes its scientific challenges and research priorities, and reports preliminary results coming out of observational infrastructure in seismology, tectonophysics, geodesy, geophysics and geochemistry. Preliminary community fault model, community velocity model, and community strain rate model in the CSES are described in this book. A multidisciplinary test observation system includes GNSS, seismic array, and deep drilling system under construct around middle segment of the Xiansuihe-Xiaojiang fault and other seismogenic faults in the CSES which are also introduced. This book introduces multidisciplinary topics and a wide spectrum of solid earth system to describe various disciplines, methods, and techniques through the CSES. This book presents a vision of the CSES that is dedicated to deepen the scientific understanding of continental earthquake preparation and occurrence and enhance the disaster resilience of the society. It aims at establishing a field laboratory of earthquake science, in which international and interdisciplinary cooperation could be fostered and supported. Contents of this book include the following: • History of Seismic Experiment Sites in the World. • Launching of CSES Project: Seismicity, Existed Earthquake Monitoring Networks, and Historical Seismic Disasters. • Seismotectonics and Geodynamics of the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau with Implication for the CSES. • Theoretical Framework of CSES in View of Natural Science and in view of Social Science. • Updated Earthquake Monitoring Network in China. • CSES Community Models of Geology, Structure, and Deformation. • Earthquake Forecasting Models. • CSES Products: Massive Data Procession and Distribution. • A Review of the Field Expedition of the June 17, 2019, Changning, Sichuan, M6.0 Earthquake. • Rupture Structure and Earthquake Risk of the South Longmenshan Fault Viewed by Guided Waves. • Seismic Risk Assessment. • Model of a Seismic Experimental Site with Application to the Comparative Study between CSES and ASES.
