Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects
Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects

Author: Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-10-01

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1455208892

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According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks’ balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4.

Nonperforming Loans in Asia and Europe—Causes, Impacts, and Resolution Strategies
Nonperforming Loans in Asia and Europe—Causes, Impacts, and Resolution Strategies

Author: Asian Development Bank

Publisher: Asian Development Bank

Published: 2021-12-01

Total Pages: 262

ISBN-13: 9292691163

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High and persistent levels of nonperforming loans (NPLs) have featured prominently in recent financial crises. This book traces NPL trends during and after crises, examines the economic impact of high NPLs, and compares the effectiveness of NPL resolution strategies across economies in Asia and Europe. The book distills important lessons from the experiences of economies using case studies and empirical investigation of ways to resolve NPLs. These findings can be invaluable in charting a course through the financial and economic fallout of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic to recovery and sustained financial stability in Asia, Europe, and beyond.

Resolving Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis
Resolving Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis

Author: Luc Eyraud

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-06-08

Total Pages: 85

ISBN-13: 1513576518

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Sub-Saharan African countries are facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that is likely to severely hurt credit quality and raise non-performing loans from already high levels. Banks have a critical role to play not only during the crisis by providing temporarily relief to businesses and households, but also during the recovery by supporting economic activity and facilitating the structural transformations engaged by the pandemic.

A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans
A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans

Author: Mr.Shekhar Aiyar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-09-24

Total Pages: 79

ISBN-13: 1513511653

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Europe’s banking system is weighed down by high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs), which are holding down credit growth and economic activity. This discussion note uses a new survey of European country authorities and banks to examine the structural obstacles that discourage banks from addressing their problem loans. A three pillared strategy is advocated to remedy the situation, comprising: (i) tightened supervisory policies, (ii) insolvency reforms, and (iii) the development of distressed debt markets.

Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets
Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets

Author: Mr.Reinout De Bock

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-03-01

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13: 1475592302

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This paper assesses the vulnerability of emerging markets and their banks to aggregate shocks. We find significant links between banks' asset quality, credit and macroeconomic aggregates. Lower economic growth, an exchange rate depreciation, weaker terms of trade and a fall in debt-creating capital inflows reduce credit growth while loan quality deteriorates. Particularly noteworthy is the sharp deterioration of balance sheets following a reversal of portfolio inflows. We also find evidence of feedback effects from the financial sector on the wider economy. GDP growth falls after shocks that drive non-performing loans higher or generate a contraction in credit. This analysis was used in chapter 1 of the Global Financial Stability Report (September 2011) to help evaluate the sensitivity of banks' capital adequacy ratios to macroeconomic and funding cost shocks.

Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus
Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus

Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-09-07

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1484359623

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This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.

The GCC Banking Sector
The GCC Banking Sector

Author: Ms. May Y. Khamis

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-04-01

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 1451982496

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In this paper, we analyze the evolution of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sectors in the six member countries including ownership, concentration, cross-border linkages, balance sheet exposures and risks, recent trends in credit growth, and financial soundness. We identify risks to the banking sector''s financial stability in the context of the current global crisis and their mitigating factors.

Macro-Prudential Policies to Mitigate Financial System Vulnerabilities
Macro-Prudential Policies to Mitigate Financial System Vulnerabilities

Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-08-19

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 1498357601

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Macro-prudential policies aimed at mitigating systemic financial risks have become part of the policy toolkit in many emerging markets and some advanced countries. Their effectiveness and efficacy are not well-known, however. Using panel data regressions, we analyze how changes in balance sheets of some 2,800 banks in 48 countries over 2000–2010 respond to specific macro-prudential policies. Controlling for endogeneity, we find that measures aimed at borrowers––caps on debt-to-income and loan-to-value ratios––and at financial institutions––limits on credit growth and foreign currency lending––are effective in reducing asset growth. Countercyclical buffers are little effective through the cycle, and some measures are even counterproductive during downswings, serving to aggravate declines, consistent with the ex-ante nature of macro-prudential tools.

Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa
Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Hippolyte Fofack

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 0051110172

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"This paper investigates the leading causes of nonperforming loans during the economic and banking crises that affected a large number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s. Empirical analysis shows a dramatic increase in these loans and extremely high credit risk, with significant differences between the CFA and non-CFA countries, and substantially higher financial costs for the latter sub-panel of countries. The results also highlight a strong causality between these loans and economic growth, real exchange rate appreciation, the real interest rate, net interest margins, and interbank loans consistent with the causality and econometric analysis, which reveal the significance of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. The dramatic increase in these loans is largely driven by macroeconomic volatility and reflects the vulnerability of undiversified African economies, which remain heavily exposed to external shocks. Simulated results show that macroeconomic stability and economic growth are associated with a declining level of nonperforming loans; whereas adverse macroeconomic shocks coupled with higher cost of capital and lower interest margins are associated with a rising scope of nonperforming loans. These results are supported by long-term estimates of nonperforming loans derived from pseudo panel-based prediction models. "--World Bank web site.