This paper explores the role of complementarities and coordination failure in economic growth. We analyze the evolution composed of a countable set of infinitely-lived heterogenous industries. Individual industries exhibit nonconvexities in production and are linked across time through localized technological complementarities. Each industry employs one of two production techniques. One technique is more efficient in using capital than the other, but requires the payment of a fixed capital cost. Both techniques exhibit technological complementarities in the sense that the productivity of capital invested in a technique is a function of the technique choices made by various industries the previous period. These complementarities, when strong enough, interact with incompleteness of markets to produce multiple Pareto-rankable equilibria in ling run economic activity. The equilibria have a simple probabilistic structure that demonstrates how localized coordination failures can affect the aggregate equilibrium. The model is capable of generating interesting aggregate dynamics as coordination problems become the source of aggregate volatility. Modifications of the model illustrate how leading sectors can cause a takeoff into high growth.
The Handbooks in Economics series continues to provide the various branches of economics with handbooks which are definitive reference sources, suitable for use by professional researchers, advanced graduate students, or by those seeking a teaching supplement.The Handbook of Economic Growth, edited by Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf, with an introduction by Robert Solow, features in-depth, authoritative survey articles by the leading economists working on growth theory.Volume 1A, the first in this two volume set, covers theories of economic growth, the empirics of economic growth, and growth policies and mechanisms.Volume 1B, the second in this two volume set, covers technology, trade and geography, and growth and socio-economic development.
Economists often assume that ecosystem and population dynamics are subject to convex, even linear processes. But research by ecosystem and population ecologists suggests that such processes are very often non-convex, for example a possible flip of the Gulf Stream due to fresh water intrusion from melting glaciers. This has dramatic implications for environmental and resource economics, since mistakes in management could prove more costly than imagined.
Since the very beginnings of economics as a science, which might be dated from Ibn Khaldun's "Introduction to History" (1377), the challenge of making societies escape from poverty and attain some degree of prosperity has always been, and can remain, a fundamental issue. This book presents research on each of these issues.
By comparing countries like Venezuela and Chile, China and India, Dominican Republic and Haiti, and others, the book tries to answer the questions of which institutions and policies are crucial for stable long term economic growth.
Derived from the 2001 Santa Fe Institute Conference, "The Economy as an Evolving Complex System III" addresses a wide variety of issues in the fields of economics and complexity, accessing eclectic techniques from many disciplines, provided that they shed light on the economic problem. The subject, a perennial centerpiece of the SFI program of studies, has gained a wide range of followers for its methods of employing empirical evidence in the development of analytical economic theories.
This book examines, theoretically and empirically, the key aspects and differences of economic growth. It provides a comprehensive investigation of the numerous features of development in transition countries, covering the last two decades, from the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to the current financial crisis.
The social sciences study knowing subjects and their interactions. A "cog nitive turn", based on cognitive science, has the potential to enrich these sciences considerably. Cognitive economics belongs within this movement of the social sciences. It aims to take into account the cognitive processes of individuals in economic theory, both on the level of the agent and on the level of their dynamic interactions and the resulting collective phenomena. This is an ambitious research programme that aims to link two levels of com plexity: the level of cognitive phenomena as studied and tested by cognitive science, and the level of collective phenomena produced by the economic in teractions between agents. Such an objective requires cooperation, not only between economists and cognitive scientists but also with mathematicians, physicists and computer scientists, in order to renew, study and simulate models of dynamical systems involving economic agents and their cognitive mechanisms. The hard core of classical economics is the General Equilibrium Theory, based on the optimising rationality of the agent and on static concepts of equilibrium, following a point of view systemised in the framework of Game Theory. The agent is considered "rational" if everything takes place as if he was maximising a function representing his preferences, his utility function.
An invaluable survey of the literature on growth. Colin White argues persuasively and expertly that any attempt to solve the profound mystery of economic growth at the large scales of world history must move beyond the limited vision of neo-classical economic theory, and incorporate the narrative methods and perspectives of history as well. This is a superb overview and critique of contemporary attempts to explain economic growth, and a perceptive re-examination of the whole issue of growth in human history. David Christian, Macquarie University, Australia Colin White transcends a number of false dichotomies in this work. He shows that we need both theory and history in order to comprehend the transition to modern economic growth. He appreciates that this transition was neither inevitable as many theorists argue nor entirely contingent as historical treatments often suggest. He argues that advice to present-day less developed countries should combine a general understanding of the process of transition with detailed analysis of the history and conditions of the country in question. He appreciates that it makes sense to speak of an Industrial Revolution while also recognizing that this was a gradual process that in turn built upon even more gradual changes in earlier centuries in the British economy. Less obviously but importantly he realizes that we can best understand economic growth if we recognize the limitations of each scholarly approach in order to integrate the best of these. Rick Szostak, University of Alberta, Canada This fascinating book considers one of the most important problems in economics: the inception of modern economic development. There is at present no satisfactory explanation of the inception of modern economic development; an excessive focus on either pure theory or on unique histories limits the explanatory power. This book realises the need to integrate the two approaches, moving beyond the proximate causes of economic theory to review the role in an analytic narrative of significant ultimate causes geography, risk environments, human capital, and institutions. Colin White distils the conclusions of a vast literature, drawing from economics, economic history and business and management, exploring economic theory, demonstrating limitations and highlighting alternative approaches. Particular attention is paid to the appropriate role of innovative entrepreneurs and of government, and three case studies illustrate how to build an analytic narrative. Showing how far we can generalise about the determinants of economic development and in particular how to understand the specific determinants in individual countries, this book will prove a stimulating and thought provoking read to academics, students and researchers with an interest in economics and economic development.
The book illustrates the considerable advances in modern evolutionary economics and addresses core questions of economic behaviour, interaction of heterogeneous actors in uncertain environments and the possibility of aggregating observations on a macro-economic level. It presents the foundations of economic change as the major building blocks of an economic approach that focusses on complex processes driven by endogenous innovation as well as crisis. The theoretical considerations are complemented by econometric studies to demonstrate the relevance of evolutionary-economic thinking to improve our understanding of the most challenging issues related to economic growth and development.
