Developing countries now use monetary policy as part of their adjustment programmes but its targets, the tools, and the theory were developed for advanced countries. Low income countries do not have the sophisticated financial sectors that rich ones can assume, and the shocks and size of adjustment which they face may be much greater. Using six country studies, with special analysis of the roles of the external sector and the informal financial sector, this book analyses the interaction among monetary policy, the financial sector, and development.
Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
Consideration on the use of fiscal and monetary policies in less developed countries to overcome the three sets of obstacles to development largely because of socio-political constraints. The three major obstacles to development are: inadequate investment; misallocation of investment resources; and internal and external imbalance i.e. inflation and balance of payments deficits.
This book highlights the basic principles of monetary economics and their application to developing countries. Fully illustrated, the new edition includes four entirely new chapters, with material on financial crises, the debates surrounding inflation targeting, and an examination of the role and future of financial institutions.
The COVID-19 crisis has fractured the pre-existing structural rigidities and institutional fragilities in the economies of developing countries more than ever, necessitating a rethinking of fiscal and monetary policies, the main vehicles for relief, recovery and reconstruction. This book examines the barriers to transformation in developing countries in the wake of the pandemic and analyses the paths to recovery based on an economic policymaking agenda. It juxtaposes fiscal and monetary policies and state-building from pre- and post-colonial periods to the present-day context. It employs an interdisciplinary approach and ventures beyond the well-rehearsed tendency to explain the state of developing countries by considering the experiences of advanced economies. The book utilises data on three levels: the aggregate level using world data, the single-country context with case studies and a cross-country assessment for comparative analysis. Further, the book critically assesses the relevance of different schools of thought and provides nuanced, thought-provoking theoretical apparatuses applicable to developing countries, as well as allowing the reader to undertake a country-specific analysis through the detailed historical country case studies undertaken in each chapter. Each chapter has a detailed and separate theoretical and empirical section for the ease of understanding of the key propositions in the book. The book will find an audience among scholars and researchers alike, who wish to gain a deeper understanding of the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies, specifically in developing countries. For policymakers and policy advocates, the book will serve as the groundwork for monetary and fiscal policies in the context of developing countries, providing more relevant instruments for transformational pathways.
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
The book gives a broad coverage of the monetary policy issues in Low Financial Development Countries (LFDCs). These low and lower middle income countries are characterized by a predominance of bank finance, shallow financial markets, low financial inclusion, weak integration with world capital markets and a high degree of informality in economic activity. Monetary policy acquires special twists, making it different in many aspects from the policies followed in advanced and emerging market economies. The book covers the main facets of monetary policy making, using an approach that combines the discussion of theoretical arguments, of results from empirical studies and of policy experiences relevant for LFDCs. The book presents the monetary policy instruments they use and assesses the specificities of their monetary transmission mechanism. It evaluates the advantages, drawbacks and challenges of the different nominal anchors they may choose from: exchange rate targeting, monetary targeting and inflation targeting. This discussion is set against the background of the three main goals pursued by central banks: price, output and financial stability. Particular attention is devoted to the issue of the credibility of central banks and to the trade-offs they face when external shocks, to which these countries are very vulnerable, lead to conflicts among the three goals they pursue. The book also covers more specific topics, such as the challenges raised by fiscal dominance and by dollarization, the implications of informal labor markets and of microfinance institutions for monetary policy-making and the role of models for forecasting and policy evaluation.
Money and Monetary Policy in Less Developed Countries: A Survey of Issues and Evidence focuses on monetary policy, the financial intermediation process, and the role of money in economic development in less developed countries (LDCs). Topics covered include financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries; instruments and techniques used in the implementation of monetary policy: and econometric policy models. This book is comprised of 46 chapters and begins with a discussion on the main lines of thought in the field of money and monetary policy in LDCs, with emphasis on the significant empirical results. The reader is then introduced to the role of money in the development process; production and monetization in the subsistence sector; some aspects of financial policies and central banking in developing countries; and the efficacy of monetary rules for LDCs. The subsequent chapters explore monetary policy instruments such as interest rates, credit controls, and exchange rates; credit policy and the balance of payments in developing countries; and price and output behavior in the Indian economy from 1951 to 1973. A semiannual macroeconometric model of the Philippines for the period 1967-1976 is also described. This monograph will be a valuable resource for economists, economic policymakers, and central bankers as well as students.
This book examines the current state of central banking in 44 developing countries. The authors analyse the banks' achievement in their primary objective of price stability and discuss the reasons behind the general lack of success. The book covers: * government financing * foreign exchange systems * domestic banking systems. Rich in data, the book
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
