Monetary Policy and Regional House-Price Appreciation
Monetary Policy and Regional House-Price Appreciation

Author: Daniel Cooper

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13:

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This paper examines the link between monetary policy and house-price appreciation by exploiting the fact that monetary policy is set at the national level, but has different effects on state-level activity in the United States. This differential impact of monetary policy provides an exogenous source of variation that can be used to assess the effect of monetary policy on state-level housing prices. Policy accommodation equivalent to 100 basis points on an equilibrium real federal funds rate basis raises housing prices by about 2.5 percent over the next two years. However, the estimated effect increases to 6.6 percent during the early 2000s housing boom.

The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy
The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy

Author: Bruno Albuquerque

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-02-02

Total Pages: 60

ISBN-13:

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We study the role of regional housing markets in the transmission of US monetary policy. Using a FAVAR model over 1999q1–2019q4, we find sizeable heterogeneity in the responses of US states to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Part of this regional variation is due to differences in housing supply elasticities, household debt overhang, and housing wealth (volatility). Our analysis indicates that house prices and consumption respond more in supply-inelastic states and in states with large household debt imbalances, where negative housing wealth effects bite more strongly and borrowing constraints become more binding. Moreover, financial stability risks increase sharply in these areas as mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures surge, worsening banks’ balance sheets. Finally, monetary policy may have a stronger effect on housing tenure decisions in supply-inelastic states, where the homeownership rate and price-to-rent ratios decline by more. Our findings stress the importance of regional housing supply conditions in assessing the macrofinancial effects of rising interest rates.

House Prices and the Macroeconomy
House Prices and the Macroeconomy

Author: Charles Goodhart

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 247

ISBN-13: 0199204594

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House price bubbles, and their aftermath, have become a focus of macro-economic policy concern in most developed countries. This book elucidates the two-way relationship between house-price fluctuations and economic fundamentals. Housing has many features which make it distinct from other assets, like equity. Real estate is not only an asset but also a durable consumption good for households, providing shelter and other housing services. As a result, a house is often the largest and most important asset of households and therefore accounts for a major share of household wealth. Similarly a large share of bank assets is tied to housing values. House price fluctuations may, therefore, have a major effect on economic activity and the soundness of the financial system. Following an introductory chapter, the book is structured into three parts. The first demonstrates the importance of house prices as determinants or indicators of inflation and economic activity. The second focuses on the inter-relationships between bank credit extension and housing prices, and how bubbles can lead to financial crises. The third discusses resultant public policy issues, such as whether, and how, to include housing prices in a general inflation index, and how to restrain the housing/bank credit cycle.

Hot Property
Hot Property

Author: Rob Nijskens

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-06-14

Total Pages: 220

ISBN-13: 3030116743

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This open access book discusses booming housing markets in cities around the globe, and the resulting challenges for policymakers and central banks. Cities are booming everywhere, leading to a growing demand for urban housing. In many cities this demand is out-pacing supply, which causes house prices to soar and increases the pressure on rental markets. These developments are posing major challenges for policymakers, central banks and other authorities responsible for ensuring financial stability, and economic well-being in general.This volume collects views from high-level policymakers and researchers, providing essential insights into these challenges, their impact on society, the economy and financial stability, and possible policy responses. The respective chapters address issues such as the popularity of cities, the question of a credit-fueled housing bubble, the role of housing supply frictions and potential policy solutions. Given its scope, the book offers a revealing read and valuable guide for everyone involved in practical policymaking for housing markets, mortgage credit and financial stability.

Monetary Policy and the House Price Boom Across U.S. States
Monetary Policy and the House Price Boom Across U.S. States

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2005

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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"The authors use a dynamic factor model estimated via Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's house price movements from state- or region-specific shocks, estimated on quarterly state-level data from 1986 to 2004. The authors find that movements in house prices historically have mainly been driven by the local (state- or region-specific) component. The recent period (2001-04) has been different, however: "Local bubbles" have been important in some states, but overall the increase in house prices is a national phenomenon. The authors then use a VAR to investigate the extent to which expansionary monetary policy is responsible for the common component in house price movements. The authors find the impact of policy shocks on house prices to be very small"--Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta web site.

Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability
Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability

Author: Andrea Deghi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-01-17

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1513525832

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This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.