William Barnett, the coeditor of this volume, introduced modern economic index number theory into monetary economics and this book comprises a focussed and unified collection of his most important publications in this area. It provides a clear and systematic development of the state-of-the-art in monetary and financial aggregation theory.
This book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the problem of the definition of money and investigates the gains that can be achieved by a rigorous use of microeconomic- and aggregation-theoretic foundations in the construction of monetary aggregates. It provides readers with key aspects of monetary economics and macroeconomics, including monetary aggregation, demand systems, flexible functional forms, long-run monetary neutrality, the welfare cost of inflation, and nonlinear chaotic dynamics.This book offers the following conclusions: the simple-sum approach to monetary aggregation and log-linear money demand functions, currently used by central banks, are inappropriate for monetary policy purposes; the choice of monetary aggregation procedure is crucial in evaluating the welfare cost of inflation; the inter-related problems of monetary aggregation and money demand will be successfully investigated in the context of flexible functional forms that satisfy theoretical regularity globally, pointing the way forward to useful and productive research.
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
The book surveys modern literature on financial aggregation and index number theory, with special emphasis on the contributions of the book's two coauthors. In addition to an introduction and a systematic survey chapter unifying the rest of the book, this publication contains reprints of six published articles central to the survey chapter. Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory provides a reference work for financial data researchers and users of central bank data, placing emphasis on possible improvements in such data from use of the microeconomic index number and aggregation theory.
In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries’ predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Speci?cally, we model non-parametrically the contemporaneous interdependencies across the United States, the euro area, and China via a conditional kernel density estimation of a joint distribution. Then, we characterize the potential ampli?cation e?ects stemming from other large economies in each region—also with kernel density estimations—and the reaction of all other economies with para-metric assumptions. Importantly, each economy’s predictive density also depends on a set of observable country-speci?c factors. Finally, the use of sampling techniques allows us to aggregate individual countries’ densities into a world aggregate while preserving the non-i.i.d. nature of the global GDP growth distribution. Out-of-sample metrics con?rm the accuracy of our approach.
This Manual offers guidelines for the presentation of monetary and financial statistics. It provides a set of tools for identifying, classifying, and recording stocks and flows of financial assets and liabilities, describes the standard, analytically oriented frame works in which the statistics may be presented, and identifies a set of analytically useful aggregates within those frameworks. The concepts and principles set out in the Manual are harmonized with those of the System of National Accounts 1993.
This edition of Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (Manual) updates and merges into one volume methodological and practical aspects of the compilation process of monetary statistics. The Manual is aimed at compilers and users of monetary data, offering guidance for the collection and analytical presentation of monetary statistics. The Manual includes standardized report forms, providing countries with a tool for compiling and reporting harmonized data for the central bank, other depository corporations, and other financial corporations.
Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) are measures that indicate the current financial health and soundness of a country's financial institutions, and their corporate and household counterparts. FSIs include both aggregated individual institution data and indicators that are representative of the markets in which the financial institutions operate. FSIs are calculated and disseminated for the purpose of supporting macroprudential analysis--the assessment and surveillance of the strengths and vulnerabilities of financial systems--with a view to strengthening financial stability and limiting the likelihood of financial crises. Financial Soundness Indicators: Compilation Guide is intended to give guidance on the concepts, sources, and compilation and dissemination techniques underlying FSIs; to encourage the use and cross-country comparison of these data; and, thereby, to support national and international surveillance of financial systems.
Some recent studies suggest the possibility of estimating a stable aggregate demand-for-money relationship for the group of countries participating in the European Monetary System. These results are of particular relevance in connection with the task of setting policy targets for a European Central Bank. This paper uses a theoretical error-invariables framework to identify what is gained and what may be lost through cross-border aggregation of money demand. It provides an analytical basis for such studies, paying particular attention to currency substitution and international portfolio diversification.
