Modelling and Forecasting in Dry Bulk Shipping
Modelling and Forecasting in Dry Bulk Shipping

Author: Shun Chen

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2014-04-24

Total Pages: 439

ISBN-13: 1317701623

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This book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in the dry bulk shipping market, a major component of the world shipping industry. Recent uncertainties in the world economy, shipbuilding developments and fleet changes mean the dry bulk shipping market has become extremely volatile, highly speculative and more sensitive to external shocks. In response to these challenging circumstances, this book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in various markets including the freight market, the new build ship market and the second-hand ship market. The authors have carried out an extensive investigation of dry bulk shipping over a 60-year period in diverse sub-markets, trading routes, market conditions and dry bulk vessels. The authors also propose a framework for analysing and modelling the economic processes of numerous variables in the dry bulk shipping market, making use of modern econometric techniques and other economic approaches. This will be especially useful for the control and assessment of risk for ship owners and charterers in ship operation, ship chartering and ship trading activities. This book will be extremely useful for shipbuilders, owners and charterers, as well as shipping analysts and policymakers. It will also be of great interest to academics and researchers concerned with the economics of the shipping industry.

Modelling and Forecasting in Dry Bulk Shipping
Modelling and Forecasting in Dry Bulk Shipping

Author: Shun Chen

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2014-04-24

Total Pages: 437

ISBN-13: 1317701615

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This book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in the dry bulk shipping market, a major component of the world shipping industry. Recent uncertainties in the world economy, shipbuilding developments and fleet changes mean the dry bulk shipping market has become extremely volatile, highly speculative and more sensitive to external shocks. In response to these challenging circumstances, this book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in various markets including the freight market, the new build ship market and the second-hand ship market. The authors have carried out an extensive investigation of dry bulk shipping over a 60-year period in diverse sub-markets, trading routes, market conditions and dry bulk vessels. The authors also propose a framework for analysing and modelling the economic processes of numerous variables in the dry bulk shipping market, making use of modern econometric techniques and other economic approaches. This will be especially useful for the control and assessment of risk for ship owners and charterers in ship operation, ship chartering and ship trading activities. This book will be extremely useful for shipbuilders, owners and charterers, as well as shipping analysts and policymakers. It will also be of great interest to academics and researchers concerned with the economics of the shipping industry.

Econometric Modelling of World Shipping
Econometric Modelling of World Shipping

Author: M. Beenstock

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 1993-09-30

Total Pages: 274

ISBN-13: 9780412367205

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Econometric Modelling of World Shipping describes an economic model that may be used to forecast world shipping markets. A unique feature of the model is that it relates to both sectors of world shipping, the dry cargo sector and the tanker sector. This is the first time that a model of this type has been published. This book also breaks new ground in explaining the behaviour of vessel prices, both new and secondhand.

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Advances in Business and Management Forecasting

Author: Kenneth D. Lawrence

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2017-11-09

Total Pages: 223

ISBN-13: 1787430693

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Volume 12 presents studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as supply chain, health care, prospecting for donations from university alumni, and the use of clustering and regression in forecasting. The orientation of this volume is for business applications for both the researcher and the practitioner of forecasting.

Modern Advances in Applied Intelligence
Modern Advances in Applied Intelligence

Author: Moonis Ali

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2014-05-20

Total Pages: 543

ISBN-13: 3319074679

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The two volume set LNAI 8481 and 8482 constitutes the refereed conference proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Industrial, Engineering and Other Applications of Applied Intelligent Systems, IEA/AIE 2014, held in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, in June 2014. The total of 106 papers selected for the proceedings were carefully reviewed and selected from various submissions. The papers deal with a wide range of topics from applications of applied intelligent systems to solve real-life problems in all areas including engineering, science, industry, automation and robotics, business and finance, medicine and biomedicine, bioinformatics, cyberspace and human-machine interaction.

Istanbul as a Global Financial Center
Istanbul as a Global Financial Center

Author: Melike Bildirci

Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing

Published: 2017-08-21

Total Pages: 495

ISBN-13: 1527500667

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This book brings together analyses of a wide range of economic and financial subjects, including any issue related to these broader concepts, such as development, banking crises, energy, and Islamic finance, among others. It offers a clear discussion of the current period of economic transition and the future prospects of developing countries in terms of financial and economic perspectives. It will serve to raise awareness of the important opportunities and risks inherent in the global financial system, and makes a valuable contribution to wider economic debates by identifying the priorities and policy prescriptions that will help countries to realise their potential. The book will particularly appeal to academicians and students, as well as, researchers and professionals in the fields of economics, finance, and business. It may also serve as a secondary textbook for courses about Eurasian countries in economics and finance departments of higher learning institutions.

Shipping Economics
Shipping Economics

Author: Kevin Cullinane

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2005-06-15

Total Pages: 324

ISBN-13: 0080456804

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Shipping is by far the most significant mode of transportation for the carriage of freight. In terms of volume alone, no other mode comes close. Its dominance is even more overwhelming when distances are accounted for. This book is concerned with the economics of this pivotal mode of transportation. It reveals that the influences on the development and current state of shipping economics research are extremely eclectic. The various chapters in the book represent areas that are of central concern to ongoing research in the field. As such, the book is useful to students, researchers, industrialists, policy makers and consultants. The authors of the contributed chapters are some of the leading names in the world of shipping economics, addressing a number of diverse areas: The econometric modeling of shipping markets; Shipping finance (a critical issue in such a capital intensive industry); Fiscal policy (and its impact on an international industry with great asset mobility) and Safety and security (aspects that have risen to prominence with increasing concerns over the environment and international terrorism). Ultimately, while shipping as a business depends upon trade, it is absolutely certain that the business of trade depends upon shipping. The final two chapters, therefore, incorporate aspects of network economics, welfare economics and international trade theory to analyze where and how shipping sits within the wider perspective of industrial supply chains.Professor Kevin Cullinane, BA BSc MSc PhD FCILT CNIProfessor Kevin Cullinane is Chair in Marine Transport and Management at the University of Newcastle in the U.K. He was previously Professor and Head of the Department of Shipping and Transport Logistics at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Head of the Centre for International Shipping and Transport at Plymouth University, Senior Partner in his own transport consultancy company and Research Fellow at the University of Oxford Transport Studies Unit. He is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport and has been a transport adviser to the governments of Hong Kong, Egypt, Chile and the U.K. He holds visiting Professorships at a number of institutions and an Honorary Professorship at the University of Hong Kong.

Maritime Economics
Maritime Economics

Author: Alan Branch

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2013-04-15

Total Pages: 597

ISBN-13: 1134742673

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Now in its second edition Maritime Economics provides a valuable introduction to the organisation and workings of the global shipping industry. The author outlines the economic theory as well as many of the operational practicalities involved. Extensively revised for the new edition, the book has many clear illustrations and tables. Topics covered include: * an overview of international trade * Maritime Law * economic organisation and principles * financing ships and shipping companies * market research and forecasting.

Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All?
Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All?

Author: Benjamin Beckers

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-11-25

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13: 1513523899

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We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for horizons up to two years. This calls for caution in reliance on futures or the random walk for forecasting, particularly for near term predictions. Despite the overall strength of VAR models, we highlight some performance instability, with small alterations in specifications, subsamples or lag lengths providing widely different forecasts at times. Combining futures, random walk and VAR models for forecasting have merit for medium term horizons.