Macroeconomic Factors Affecting the NPAs in the Indian Banking System

Macroeconomic Factors Affecting the NPAs in the Indian Banking System

Author: Sabat Kumar Digal

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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This study attempts to analyze the current problem that Indian banking system is facing -- Non-Performing Assets (NPAs). It empirically tries to examine both the macroeconomic and microeconomic (bank-specific) factors responsible for the rising NPA levels in the Indian banking sector. Banks have been considered sector-wise, namely, public sector banks, private sector banks and foreign banks, so as to distinguish the performance of each category of banks. However, for empirical analysis, historical annual data for 45 scheduled commercial banks operating in the public and private sector (the total assets of these banks constitute about 94.7% of total advances of the banking sector as on end March 2013) between 2005 and 2013 have been analyzed using panel data model. The empirical results show that at the macroeconomic level, the economic slowdown significantly and adversely impacts the NPA levels of the banks, which is evident from large and statistically significant coefficients of the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country. The other macroeconomic factors which explain the recent trends in the NPA levels are the trade balance with other countries, high government deficit and the level of inflation. In case of bank-specific factors, restructuring activities, operating efficiency and credit growth are found to control the NPA levels significantly. The sectorwise analysis of banks reveals that the microeconomic parameters have less impact on the NPA levels of the banks.


Deregulation and Efficiency of Indian Banks

Deregulation and Efficiency of Indian Banks

Author: Sunil Kumar

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-10-23

Total Pages: 340

ISBN-13: 8132215451

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​ The goal of this book is to assess the efficacy of India’s financial deregulation programme by analyzing the developments in cost efficiency and total factor productivity growth across different ownership types and size classes in the banking sector over the post-deregulation years. The work also gauges the impact of inclusion or exclusion of a proxy for non-traditional activities on the cost efficiency estimates for Indian banks, and ranking of distinct ownership groups. It also investigates the hitherto neglected aspect of the nature of returns-to-scale in the Indian banking industry. In addition, the work explores the key bank-specific factors that explain the inter-bank variations in efficiency and productivity growth. Overall, the empirical results of this work allow us to ascertain whether the gradualist approach to reforming the banking system in a developing economy like India has yielded the most significant policy goal of achieving efficiency and productivity gains. The authors believe that the findings of this book could give useful policy directions and suggestions to other developing economies that have embarked on a deregulation path or are contemplating doing so.


Stress Test of Banks in India Across Ownerships

Stress Test of Banks in India Across Ownerships

Author: Sreejata Banerjee

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13:

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This paper examines whether the Indian banking system is robust to withstand unexpected shocks from external and domestic macroeconomic factors. Demirguc et al (1998) Kaminsky et al (1999) demonstrate that banking crisis follow financial liberalization. India embarked financial deregulation from 1992 whereas the ongoing global financial crisis (GFC) could jeopardize bank portfolios. Stress-test is undertaken through the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model to examine if decline in GDP, exchange rate volatility and foreign capital portfolio funds adversely impact bank asset quality through higher defaults. VAR model is run for banks belonging to public, private and foreign ownerships. Banks' soundness is measured by the non-performing assets (NPA) with quarterly data from 1997 to 2014. Our contribution lies in finding that there is little divergence among the banks of different ownerships in their response to the shocks from real effective exchange rate, capital flows and GDP output gap. IRF shows that GDP shock to NPA of public and private banks take more than 9 and 8 quarters to stabilize. The shock from Net Foreign Institutional Investment to private banks NPAs take 8 lags. Foreign banks are impacted by the same macroeconomic factors. The stress test exhibits that public banks are more vulnerable and need re-capitalization. We also demonstrate that the domestic banks are not adversely affected by the GFC credit for this could be attributed to the well calibrated regulatory policies of the RBI. Although foreign banks may have suffered setbacks, it is not captured in our analysis.


Understanding the Response of Indian Banks to Macro-Economic Shocks

Understanding the Response of Indian Banks to Macro-Economic Shocks

Author: Rohit Gupta

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13:

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The vulnerability of banks to macroeconomic and financial shocks is an area of growing interest to policymakers, especially in emerging markets. Strong adverse aggregate shocks contribute heavily to loan losses when banks are highly exposed to such shocks. I intend to understand the heterogeneity in Indian bank risk responses to macro shocks. Based on the work of Buch et al. (2010), I intend to discuss how macro factors effect bank risk. Using Factor augmented VAR model, I will allow macroeconomic factors to affect bank risk, when macroeconomic factors themselves are modelled as a function of banking variables. We examine if discriminating strategies impact risk responsiveness of Indian commercial banks to macro-economic shocks using Factor augmented VaR approach for quarterly periods during 2002-13.


India

India

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2002-09-03

Total Pages: 143

ISBN-13: 1451818564

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This Selected Issues paper presents an analysis of trends in growth and investment in India in the 1990s, with a focus on the slowdown in growth during the second half of the 1990s. The paper discusses the fiscal situation, outlining the key reasons for the deterioration in fiscal balances, how the fiscal situation compares with other developing countries, and the key lessons from countries that managed successful fiscal consolidation. The paper also contains an assessment of India’s opening to global trade and factors that may be affecting India’s export performance.


Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets

Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets

Author: Mr.Reinout De Bock

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-03-01

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13: 1475592302

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This paper assesses the vulnerability of emerging markets and their banks to aggregate shocks. We find significant links between banks' asset quality, credit and macroeconomic aggregates. Lower economic growth, an exchange rate depreciation, weaker terms of trade and a fall in debt-creating capital inflows reduce credit growth while loan quality deteriorates. Particularly noteworthy is the sharp deterioration of balance sheets following a reversal of portfolio inflows. We also find evidence of feedback effects from the financial sector on the wider economy. GDP growth falls after shocks that drive non-performing loans higher or generate a contraction in credit. This analysis was used in chapter 1 of the Global Financial Stability Report (September 2011) to help evaluate the sensitivity of banks' capital adequacy ratios to macroeconomic and funding cost shocks.


Behavioral Finance and Decision-making Models

Behavioral Finance and Decision-making Models

Author: Tripti Tripathi

Publisher: Business Science Reference

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781522574019

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Behavioral finance challenges the traditional assumption that individuals are rational by focusing on the cognitive and emotional aspects of finance, which draws on psychology, sociology, and biology to investigate true financial behavior. The financial sector requires sound understanding of market dynamics and strategic issues to meet future challenges in the field. Behavioral Finance and Decision-Making Models seeks to examine behavioral biases and their impact on investment decisions in order to develop better future plans and strategies in the financial sector. While highlighting topics including behavioral approach, financial regulation, and globalized sector, this book is intended for policymakers, technology developers, managers, government officials, academicians, researchers, and advanced-level students.


Managing Non-Performing Assets in Indian Public Sector Banks

Managing Non-Performing Assets in Indian Public Sector Banks

Author: Sk Mujibar Rahaman

Publisher: Exceller Books

Published: 2022-09-30

Total Pages: 189

ISBN-13:

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The book provides a comprehensive coverage of a burning issue faced by the banking industry in India, namely, the problem of Non-Performing Assets (NPAs). The book elucidates the theoretical exposition of NPAs in the first instance. It also demystifies the trends in movement of NPAs and thereby expounds efficiency in NPA management by Public Sector Banks, PSBs, in India. Recognising the inevitable and festering nature of the problem, the author has come out, inter alia, with a data-driven approach to measure financial performance and thereby assessed impact of the problem on different performance areas of banks. The book also investigates the major factors causing the problem of NPAs of the Indian PSBs. Finally, the author provides certain recommendations for the banks and the government that can help manage NPAs and strengthen the banking industry in the country.


Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability

Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability

Author: Asl? Demirgüç-Kunt

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 1998

Total Pages: 52

ISBN-13:

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March 1998 Differences in interest margins reflect differences in bank characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, existing financial structure and taxation, regulation, and other institutional factors. Using bank data for 80 countries for 1988-95, Demirgüç-Kunt and Huizinga show that differences in interest margins and bank profitability reflect various determinants: * Bank characteristics. * Macroeconomic conditions. * Explicit and implicit bank taxes. * Regulation of deposit insurance. * General financial structure. * Several underlying legal and institutional indicators. Controlling for differences in bank activity, leverage, and the macroeconomic environment, they find (among other things) that: * Banks in countries with a more competitive banking sector-where banking assets constitute a larger share of GDP-have smaller margins and are less profitable. The bank concentration ratio also affects bank profitability; larger banks tend to have higher margins. * Well-capitalized banks have higher net interest margins and are more profitable. This is consistent with the fact that banks with higher capital ratios have a lower cost of funding because of lower prospective bankruptcy costs. * Differences in a bank's activity mix affect spread and profitability. Banks with relatively high noninterest-earning assets are less profitable. Also, banks that rely largely on deposits for their funding are less profitable, as deposits require more branching and other expenses. Similarly, variations in overhead and other operating costs are reflected in variations in bank interest margins, as banks pass their operating costs (including the corporate tax burden) on to their depositors and lenders. * In developing countries foreign banks have greater margins and profits than domestic banks. In industrial countries, the opposite is true. * Macroeconomic factors also explain variation in interest margins. Inflation is associated with higher realized interest margins and greater profitability. Inflation brings higher costs-more transactions and generally more extensive branch networks-and also more income from bank float. Bank income increases more with inflation than bank costs do. * There is evidence that the corporate tax burden is fully passed on to bank customers in poor and rich countries alike. * Legal and institutional differences matter. Indicators of better contract enforcement, efficiency in the legal system, and lack of corruption are associated with lower realized interest margins and lower profitability. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to study bank efficiency.