A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium

A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium

Author: Emanuel Kopp

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-06-15

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 1484363671

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In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.


A Second Course in Stochastic Processes

A Second Course in Stochastic Processes

Author: Samuel Karlin

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 1981-06-29

Total Pages: 561

ISBN-13: 008057050X

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This Second Course continues the development of the theory and applications of stochastic processes as promised in the preface of A First Course. We emphasize a careful treatment of basic structures in stochastic processes in symbiosis with the analysis of natural classes of stochastic processes arising from the biological, physical, and social sciences.


Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Author: John H. Cochrane

Publisher: Now Publishers Inc

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 117

ISBN-13: 1933019158

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Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.


Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing

Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing

Author: Kenneth J. Singleton

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2009-12-13

Total Pages: 497

ISBN-13: 1400829232

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Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures. As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.


Encyclopedia of Finance

Encyclopedia of Finance

Author: Cheng-Few Lee

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2006-07-27

Total Pages: 861

ISBN-13: 0387262849

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This is a major new reference work covering all aspects of finance. Coverage includes finance (financial management, security analysis, portfolio management, financial markets and instruments, insurance, real estate, options and futures, international finance) and statistical applications in finance (applications in portfolio analysis, option pricing models and financial research). The project is designed to attract both an academic and professional market. It also has an international approach to ensure its maximum appeal. The Editors' wish is that the readers will find the encyclopedia to be an invaluable resource.


Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2009-12-16

Total Pages: 402

ISBN-13: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.


Chebyshev and Fourier Spectral Methods

Chebyshev and Fourier Spectral Methods

Author: John P. Boyd

Publisher: Courier Corporation

Published: 2001-12-03

Total Pages: 690

ISBN-13: 0486411834

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Completely revised text focuses on use of spectral methods to solve boundary value, eigenvalue, and time-dependent problems, but also covers Hermite, Laguerre, rational Chebyshev, sinc, and spherical harmonic functions, as well as cardinal functions, linear eigenvalue problems, matrix-solving methods, coordinate transformations, methods for unbounded intervals, spherical and cylindrical geometry, and much more. 7 Appendices. Glossary. Bibliography. Index. Over 160 text figures.