Individual Differences in Judgement and Decision-Making

Individual Differences in Judgement and Decision-Making

Author: Maggie E. Toplak

Publisher: Psychology Press

Published: 2016-11-25

Total Pages: 260

ISBN-13: 1317265319

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Children face an overwhelming amount of information and a range of different choices every day, and so there has never been a more important time to understand how children learn to make judgments and decisions in our modern world. Individual Differences in Judgment and Decision-Making presents cutting-edge developmental research to advance our knowledge and understanding of how these competencies emerge. Focusing on the role of individual differences, the text provides a complementary theoretical approach to understanding the development of judgment and decision-making skills, and how and why these competencies vary within and between different periods of development. Sampling a diverse set of developmental paradigms and measures, as well as considering typical and atypically developing samples, this volume provokes thinking about how we can support our children and youth to help them make better choices. Drawing on the expertise of a range of international contributors, this book will be of interest to students and researchers of thinking and reasoning from both cognitive and developmental psychology backgrounds.


Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making

Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making

Author: Derek J. Koehler

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2008-04-15

Total Pages: 680

ISBN-13: 0470752912

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The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.


Rational Choice in an Uncertain World

Rational Choice in an Uncertain World

Author: Reid Hastie

Publisher: SAGE

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 393

ISBN-13: 1412959039

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In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams.


Judgement and Choice: Perspectives on the Work of Daniel Kahneman

Judgement and Choice: Perspectives on the Work of Daniel Kahneman

Author: Daniel Kahneman

Publisher: Psychology Press

Published: 2020-10-28

Total Pages: 122

ISBN-13: 1000149900

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The work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky has transformed the study of judgment and decision-making, and penetrated related disciplines such as economics, finance, marketing, law and medicine. In recognition of these achievements, Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2003. This special issue presents ongoing research inspired by both Kahneman and Tversky. It covers many of the central themes the heuristics and biases of judgment and prediction, framing effects, assessments and predictions of utility that made their work so innovative. The specially written papers illustrate the range and depth of this work, and emphasise its continued relevance to current research.


Judgment and Decision Making at Work

Judgment and Decision Making at Work

Author: Scott Highhouse

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2013-09-05

Total Pages: 421

ISBN-13: 1135021945

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Employees are constantly making decisions and judgments that have the potential to affect themselves, their families, their work organizations, and on some occasion even the broader societies in which they live. A few examples include: deciding which job applicant to hire, setting a production goal, judging one’s level of job satisfaction, deciding to steal from the cash register, agreeing to help organize the company’s holiday party, forecasting corporate tax rates two years later, deciding to report a coworker for sexual harassment, and predicting the level of risk inherent in a new business venture. In other words, a great many topics of interest to organizational researchers ultimately reduce to decisions made by employees. Yet, numerous entreaties notwithstanding, industrial and organizational psychologists typically have not incorporated a judgment and decision-making perspective in their research. The current book begins to remedy the situation by facilitating cross-pollination between the disciplines of organizational psychology and decision-making. The book describes both laboratory and more “naturalistic” field research on judgment and decision-making, and applies it to core topics of interest to industrial and organizational psychologists: performance appraisal, employee selection, individual differences, goals, leadership, teams, and stress, among others. The book also suggests ways in which industrial and organizational psychology research can benefit the discipline of judgment and decision-making. The authors of the chapters in this book conduct research at the intersection of organizational psychology and decision-making, and consequently are uniquely positioned to bridging the divide between the two disciplines.


Historical Judgement

Historical Judgement

Author: Jonathan Gorman

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2014-11-27

Total Pages: 305

ISBN-13: 1317493125

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The historical profession is not noted for examining its own methodologies. Indeed, most historians are averse to historical theory. In "Historical Judgement" Jonathan Gorman's response to this state of affairs is to argue that if we want to characterize a discipline, we need to look to persons who successfully occupy the role of being practitioners of that discipline. So to model historiography we must do so from the views of historians. Gorman begins by showing what it is to model a discipline by using recent philosophy of law and philosophy of science. There are different models at work, whose rivalry and resolution are to be historically understood. With this approach in place he is able to develop the history of historiography and explore the character of historiography as presented by historians. He reveals that historians conform to various norms - that historians now and in the past have agreed and disagreed about the same set of interrelated matters: truth-telling, moral judgement and the synthesis of facts - and it is this internal understanding that we need to recover if we are to arrive at a correct characterization of the discipline of historiography. Demonstrating how the practice of historiography requires choices and therefore the exercise of judgement, Gorman is able to show that in their making of judgements historians enjoy the immense benefit of hindsight. He shows how, in reflecting on their own discipline, historians have typically failed to attend adequately to the history of historiography, neglecting to situate previous historians within their historical contexts, or to pay adequate attention to the fact that present historians, too, are within a context that will change. In addition, Gorman's approach, which emphasizes the power and necessity of choice, and which rests on the pragmatic holistic empiricism of Quine, shows postmodernism not to be the threat that some historians feel it to be, indeed, it is shown to be a radical form of empiricism. Gorman shows how the historical enterprise may be established in our factual and moral understanding in the light of our choices and commitments to a shared world. "Historical Judgement" is an original and important contribution to the philosophy of history. By bringing together the ideas of historians and philosophers, Gorman presents a much more practitioner-focused examination of the discipline of history, one that will, hopefully, encourage historians to think more about the nature of what they do.


Judgment, Decision-Making, and Embodied Choices

Judgment, Decision-Making, and Embodied Choices

Author: Markus Raab

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 2020-10-14

Total Pages: 174

ISBN-13: 0128235608

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Judgment, Decision-Making, and Embodied Choices introduces a new concept of embodied choices which take sensorimotor experiences into account when limited time and resources forces a person to make a quick decision. This book combines areas of cognitive psychology and movement science, presenting an integrative approach to understanding human functioning in everyday scenarios. This is the first book focusing on the role of the gut as a second brain, introducing the link to risky behavior. The book's author engages readers by providing real-life experiences and scenarios connecting theory to practice. - Discusses the role of gut feelings and the brain-gut behavior connection - Demonstrates that behavior influences decision and other people's perceptions about mood or character - Includes research on medical decisions and shopping decisions - Illustrates how to train embodied choices


Thinking, Fast and Slow

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Author: Daniel Kahneman

Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Published: 2011-10-25

Total Pages: 511

ISBN-13: 1429969350

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*Major New York Times Bestseller *More than 2.6 million copies sold *One of The New York Times Book Review's ten best books of the year *Selected by The Wall Street Journal as one of the best nonfiction books of the year *Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient *Daniel Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's best-selling The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, world-famous psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Topping bestseller lists for almost ten years, Thinking, Fast and Slow is a contemporary classic, an essential book that has changed the lives of millions of readers.


Judgment Under Uncertainty

Judgment Under Uncertainty

Author: Daniel Kahneman

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1982-04-30

Total Pages: 574

ISBN-13: 9780521284141

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Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.


Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Author: Anca M. Hanea

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2021-02-19

Total Pages: 503

ISBN-13: 3030464741

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This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.