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Author: James Bucklew
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2013-03-09
Total Pages: 262
ISBN-13: 1475740786
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book presents a unified theory of rare event simulation and the variance reduction technique known as importance sampling from the point of view of the probabilistic theory of large deviations. It allows us to view a vast assortment of simulation problems from a unified single perspective.
Author: Gerardo Rubino
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Published: 2009-03-18
Total Pages: 278
ISBN-13: 9780470745410
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIn a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. Graduate students, researchers and practitioners who wish to learn and apply rare event simulation techniques will find this book beneficial.
Author: Jerome Morio
Publisher: Woodhead Publishing
Published: 2015-11-16
Total Pages: 217
ISBN-13: 0081001118
DOWNLOAD EBOOKRare event probability (10-4 and less) estimation has become a large area of research in the reliability engineering and system safety domains. A significant number of methods have been proposed to reduce the computation burden for the estimation of rare events from advanced sampling approaches to extreme value theory. However, it is often difficult in practice to determine which algorithm is the most adapted to a given problem.Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems: A Practical Approach provides a broad up-to-date view of the current available techniques to estimate rare event probabilities described with a unified notation, a mathematical pseudocode to ease their potential implementation and finally a large spectrum of simulation results on academic and realistic use cases. Provides a broad overview of the practical approach of rare event methods. Includes algorithms that are applied to aerospace benchmark test cases Offers insight into practical tuning issues
Author: Baron Peters
Publisher: Elsevier
Published: 2017-03-22
Total Pages: 636
ISBN-13: 0444594701
DOWNLOAD EBOOKReaction Rate Theory and Rare Events bridges the historical gap between these subjects because the increasingly multidisciplinary nature of scientific research often requires an understanding of both reaction rate theory and the theory of other rare events. The book discusses collision theory, transition state theory, RRKM theory, catalysis, diffusion limited kinetics, mean first passage times, Kramers theory, Grote-Hynes theory, transition path theory, non-adiabatic reactions, electron transfer, and topics from reaction network analysis. It is an essential reference for students, professors and scientists who use reaction rate theory or the theory of rare events. In addition, the book discusses transition state search algorithms, tunneling corrections, transmission coefficients, microkinetic models, kinetic Monte Carlo, transition path sampling, and importance sampling methods. The unified treatment in this book explains why chemical reactions and other rare events, while having many common theoretical foundations, often require very different computational modeling strategies. - Offers an integrated approach to all simulation theories and reaction network analysis, a unique approach not found elsewhere - Gives algorithms in pseudocode for using molecular simulation and computational chemistry methods in studies of rare events - Uses graphics and explicit examples to explain concepts - Includes problem sets developed and tested in a course range from pen-and-paper theoretical problems, to computational exercises
Author: Reuven Y. Rubinstein
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2013-03-09
Total Pages: 316
ISBN-13: 1475743211
DOWNLOAD EBOOKRubinstein is the pioneer of the well-known score function and cross-entropy methods. Accessible to a broad audience of engineers, computer scientists, mathematicians, statisticians and in general anyone, theorist and practitioner, who is interested in smart simulation, fast optimization, learning algorithms, and image processing.
Author: George S. Fishman
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2013-03-09
Total Pages: 554
ISBN-13: 1475735529
DOWNLOAD EBOOK"This is an excellent and well-written text on discrete event simulation with a focus on applications in Operations Research. There is substantial attention to programming, output analysis, pseudo-random number generation and modelling and these sections are quite thorough. Methods are provided for generating pseudo-random numbers (including combining such streams) and for generating random numbers from most standard statistical distributions." --ISI Short Book Reviews, 22:2, August 2002
Author: Michael Falk
Publisher: Birkhäuser
Published: 2013-11-11
Total Pages: 381
ISBN-13: 3034877919
DOWNLOAD EBOOKSince the publication of the first edition of this seminar book, the theory and applications of extremes and rare events have seen increasing interest. Laws of Small Numbers gives a mathematically oriented development of the theory of rare events underlying various applications. The new edition incorporates numerous new results on about 130 additional pages. Part II, added in the second edition, discusses recent developments in multivariate extreme value theory.
Author: Kenneth Train
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2009-07-06
Total Pages: 399
ISBN-13: 0521766559
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.
Author: Howard M. Taylor
Publisher: Academic Press
Published: 2014-05-10
Total Pages: 410
ISBN-13: 1483269272
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAn Introduction to Stochastic Modeling provides information pertinent to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling. This book presents the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the sciences. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of diverse types of stochastic models, which predicts a set of possible outcomes weighed by their likelihoods or probabilities. This text then provides exercises in the applications of simple stochastic analysis to appropriate problems. Other chapters consider the study of general functions of independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables representing the successive intervals between renewals. This book discusses as well the numerous examples of Markov branching processes that arise naturally in various scientific disciplines. The final chapter deals with queueing models, which aid the design process by predicting system performance. This book is a valuable resource for students of engineering and management science. Engineers will also find this book useful.
Author: Byoung Kyu Choi
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Published: 2013-08-07
Total Pages: 427
ISBN-13: 1118732855
DOWNLOAD EBOOKComputer modeling and simulation (M&S) allows engineers to study and analyze complex systems. Discrete-event system (DES)-M&S is used in modern management, industrial engineering, computer science, and the military. As computer speeds and memory capacity increase, so DES-M&S tools become more powerful and more widely used in solving real-life problems. Based on over 20 years of evolution within a classroom environment, as well as on decades-long experience in developing simulation-based solutions for high-tech industries, Modeling and Simulation of Discrete-Event Systems is the only book on DES-M&S in which all the major DES modeling formalisms – activity-based, process-oriented, state-based, and event-based – are covered in a unified manner: A well-defined procedure for building a formal model in the form of event graph, ACD, or state graph Diverse types of modeling templates and examples that can be used as building blocks for a complex, real-life model A systematic, easy-to-follow procedure combined with sample C# codes for developing simulators in various modeling formalisms Simple tutorials as well as sample model files for using popular off-the-shelf simulators such as SIGMA®, ACE®, and Arena® Up-to-date research results as well as research issues and directions in DES-M&S Modeling and Simulation of Discrete-Event Systems is an ideal textbook for undergraduate and graduate students of simulation/industrial engineering and computer science, as well as for simulation practitioners and researchers.
