The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During a Zero-Interest-Rate Period
The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During a Zero-Interest-Rate Period

Author: Mr.Jun Nagayasu

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-10-01

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13: 1451874723

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This paper empirically evaluates the validity of the term structure of interest rates in a low-interest-rate environment. Applying a time-series method to high-frequency Japanese data, the term-structure model is found to be useful for economic analysis only when interest rates are high. When interest rates are low, the usefulness of the model declines, since the interest spread contains little information that can be used for predicting future economic activity. The term-structure relationship is also weakened by the Bank of Japan's use of interest rate smoothing.

Monetary Policy Regimes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates with Recursive Utility
Monetary Policy Regimes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates with Recursive Utility

Author: Hiroatsu Tanaka

Publisher:

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13: 9781124718262

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The estimation of the model suggests that the assumption of a discretion regime performs better than a commitment regime in terms of quantitatively fitting some salient features of the US data on the term structure and the business cycle during the Volcker-Greenspan-Bernanke era. The lack of policy credibility leads to volatile and persistent inflation, which generates volatile expected long-run inflation that is negatively correlated with future continuation values. This is perceived particularly risky by EZ nominal bond holders and results in upward sloping average nominal yields, long-term yield volatility and excess return predictability closer to the magnitude observed in the data while keeping the unconditional volatilities of consumption growth and inflation realistic.

Monetary Policy, the Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Macroeconomy
Monetary Policy, the Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Macroeconomy

Author: Etienne Vaccaro-Grange

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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This Ph.D. thesis has the ambition to help better understand the role of interest rates as a monetary policy instrument driving the economy for the central bank. The first chapter of the thesis analyzes the bond term premium transmission channel of the first sovereign bonds purchase programme of the European Central Bank, focusing on the impact on aggregated Euro Area macroeconomic variables. The second chapter investigates the low growth - low inflation environment present in Japan since the 1990s, through the yield curve gap. This chapter extends the concept of (short-term) natural rate of interest to medium and long-term maturities, and shows that the different monetary policy regimes implemented by the Bank of Japan did not have an homogeneous impact on the yield curve gap and on the Japanese economy. Finally, a third chapter demonstrates that the U.S. price Phillips curve - the structural relationship between price inflation and measures of real economic activity - is not dead, as opposed to the current common thinking. This chapter shows that the slope of the price Phillips curve is not flat, once filtered from all supply shocks, and not only cost-push shocks. The chapter also finds evidence that the apparent flattening of the curve is due to the fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve has become a stricter inflation targeter.

Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Rules, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Rules, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Author: Ralf Fendel

Publisher: Peter Lang Publishing

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13:

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Interest rate rules play an important role in the empirical analysis of monetary policy as well as in modern monetary theory. Besides giving a comprehensive insight into this line of research the study incorporates the term structure of interest rates into interest rate rules. This is performed analytically as well as empirically. In doing so, state of the art techniques of modern finance for the analysis of the term structure of interest rates are introduced into the macroeconomic concept of interest rate rules. The study implies that from the theoretical perspective term structure effects are an important extension of interest rate rules. From an empirical perspective it shows that including term structure effects in interest rate reaction functions improves our understanding of the interest rate setting of the Deutsche Bundesbank and the European Central Bank.