If the Fed Acts, How Do You React? The Liftoff Effect on Capital Flows
If the Fed Acts, How Do You React? The Liftoff Effect on Capital Flows

Author: Mrs.Swarnali Ahmed Hannan

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-12-09

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13: 1498367194

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

After more than six years of ultra-low interest rates, a Fed liftoff (rate hike) is just a matter of time. This paper goes back to history to understand the spillover effect – or what is termed in the paper as the ‘liftoff’ effect – of the previous five Fed liftoffs on capital flows. Using a dynamic panel framework covering 48 countries (27 advanced economies, 21 emerging markets) over the period 1982-2006, the paper shows that the liftoff effect on capital flows (total private, portfolio) is significantly higher for emerging market economies (EM) than advanced market economies (AM). EM capital flows are hit indiscriminately one quarter before liftoff, suggesting that markets usually price in the liftoff before the actual event. Over time, there is a bit more variation among EM as policy responses/framework can to some extent dampen market reactions. The findings are similar to the unfolding of events during the taper tantrum episode indicating that, even though current circumstances are very different, history could still provide a good guidance.

If the Fed Acts, How Do You React? The Liftoff Effect on Capital Flows
If the Fed Acts, How Do You React? The Liftoff Effect on Capital Flows

Author: Swarnali Ahmed

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-12-09

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13: 1513500724

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

After more than six years of ultra-low interest rates, a Fed liftoff (rate hike) is just a matter of time. This paper goes back to history to understand the spillover effect – or what is termed in the paper as the ‘liftoff’ effect – of the previous five Fed liftoffs on capital flows. Using a dynamic panel framework covering 48 countries (27 advanced economies, 21 emerging markets) over the period 1982-2006, the paper shows that the liftoff effect on capital flows (total private, portfolio) is significantly higher for emerging market economies (EM) than advanced market economies (AM). EM capital flows are hit indiscriminately one quarter before liftoff, suggesting that markets usually price in the liftoff before the actual event. Over time, there is a bit more variation among EM as policy responses/framework can to some extent dampen market reactions. The findings are similar to the unfolding of events during the taper tantrum episode indicating that, even though current circumstances are very different, history could still provide a good guidance.

The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets
The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets

Author: Maria Sole Pagliari

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-03-07

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13: 147558525X

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2016
IMF Research Bulletin, March 2016

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-04-06

Total Pages: 20

ISBN-13: 1484316495

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The IMF Research Bulletin includes listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The research summaries in this issue are “Explaining the Recent Slump in Investment” (Mathieu Bussiere, Laurent Ferrara, and Juliana Milovich) and “The Quest for Stability in the Housing Markets” (Hites Ahir). The Q&A column reviews “Seven Questions on Estimating Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Bin Grace Li, Christopher Adam, and Andrew Berg). Also included in this issue are updates on the IMF’s official journal, the IMF Economic Review, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2012
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2012

Author: Herman Royer Professor of Political Economy David H Romer

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Published: 2012-08-31

Total Pages: 423

ISBN-13: 0815724322

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity" (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents - Democratic Change in the Arab World, Past and Present Eric Chaney (Harvard University) - Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession James Stock (Harvard University) and Mark Watson (Princeton University) - Macroeconomic Effects of FOMC Forward Guidance Jeffrey Campbell, Charles Evans, Jonas Fisher, and Alejandro Justiniano (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) - Is the Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption? Karen Dynan (Brookings Institution) - The Euro's Three Crises Jay Shambaugh (Georgetown University) - Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy J. Bradford DeLong (University of California-Berkeley) and Lawrence Summers (Harvard University )

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report

Author: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.

Published: 2011-05-01

Total Pages: 692

ISBN-13: 1616405414

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-10-23

Total Pages: 74

ISBN-13: 1498344062

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

Global Waves of Debt
Global Waves of Debt

Author: M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2021-03-03

Total Pages: 403

ISBN-13: 1464815453

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

The Global Financial Crisis
The Global Financial Crisis

Author: Dick K. Nanto

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 127

ISBN-13: 1437919847

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Contents: (1) Recent Developments and Analysis; (2) The Global Financial Crisis and U.S. Interests: Policy; Four Phases of the Global Financial Crisis; (3) New Challenges and Policy in Managing Financial Risk; (4) Origins, Contagion, and Risk; (5) Effects on Emerging Markets: Latin America; Russia and the Financial Crisis; (6) Effects on Europe and The European Response: The ¿European Framework for Action¿; The British Rescue Plan; Collapse of Iceland¿s Banking Sector; (7) Impact on Asia and the Asian Response: Asian Reserves and Their Impact; National Responses; (8) International Policy Issues: Bretton Woods II; G-20 Meetings; The International Monetary Fund; Changes in U.S. Reg¿s. and Regulatory Structure; (9) Legislation.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 1970-06

Total Pages: 116

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.