Author: Nicole L. Russell

Publisher:

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 313

ISBN-13: 9781321281385

Most of the flooding and erosion along the U.S. West Coast are caused by storm surges and wind-driven waves, particularly during strong El Nino events. There is a need to predict El Nino occurrences for planning purposes, but forecasts from most of the best El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction models have plateaued at a moderate level, leaving room for improvement in ENSO observing systems, models, and data assimilation methods. While the effects of ENSO on wave heights along the U.S. West Coast are well known, no prior studies have examined whether wave heights are also predictive of the phenomenon. This study finds that significant wave heights (H sig) along the U.S. West Coast are slightly suppressed during the summers preceding El Nino winters, but the trend is weak and the data are noisy, so contributions to ENSO forecasts are negligible. The summer Hsig trend is strongly associated with the summer North Pacific (NP) Index, which measures the area-weighted sea-level pressure over the Gulf of Alaska.