As much as we say through business books and keynote speeches that we want to expect the unexpected, provide early warning, think outside of the box and create the future - we don't. Not usually. Bureaucracies are designed to maintain their current structure, not to evolve to meet future challenges. Is this the result of fifty years of futurism, of thousands of executive retreats, of millions of pages of trend analysis? With decades of advanced intellectual techniques in foresight, why do we seem to keep stumbling into housing bubbles, financial collapse, disruptive technologies and wildcard events and then declare, "Nobody could see it coming!" In this world of superconnected economies and increasingly fragile institutions, we must restore our ability to imagine the future, based on critical thinking instead of fear. In How to Predict the Future...and WIN!!! Eric Garland illustrates how bureaucracies avoid actual discussions of their futures and recommends how we can turn our organizations around to become truly future-focused. His narrator in this intellectual journey is P. Hughes Egon, the world's "premier futurological predictologist" for the past forty years who doesn't realize how 1988 his visions of the future really are. In the book, Garland exposes Egon's twenty-five "tips" on foresight so that our organizations can achieve actual vision of what's next.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
"Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer "The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a
This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.
This book is designed for lottery players around the world. The prediction in this book is based on understanding the behavior and complexity of random systems. Understanding the complexity of random systems is the best tool that we have of predicting future lottery results. The prediction in this book is based on a month-by-month analysis because I believe that knowing that by the end of the month you will definitely win a certain amount of money, but just not knowing how much it is going to be yet, is a wonderful feeling. That is how I feel each month, and I would also like all those who buy this book to have the same feeling every month. First of all, I want to show that it is possible to predict future lottery numbers at whatever combination, be it two or three or four or five or six number combinations. My first book, titled How to Predict Future Lottery Results, did present two number combinations. You can see by checking the results page how accurate the prediction from the first book has been. The first book was published on December 18, 2013. All results from 6/49 lotteries around the world after that date have so far verified and validated my predictions on a month-by-month basis. This book presents a three-month snapshot of the matching numbers from eight countries around the world during January, February, and March 2014. These results correspond with the predictions in my first book. I have now decided to publish the combinations for predicting four numbers on a month-by-month basis.
A practical guide to outguessing everything, from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. Rock Breaks Scissors is mind-reading for real life. Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. Rock Breaks Scissors is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor.
Join bestselling author Andy Stanley as he gives you the tools you need to find your path in life and avoid the detours, obstacles, and potholes along the way. Not where you want to be? Wondering how to get there? What if you knew the answer to those questions? What if there was one simple idea that explained why so many people stray from their destiny? Stanley believes there is, and it's called the principle of the path. And not only does it explain the disappointment and regret that characterize the lives of so many, it gives you the tools you need to be the exception. In The Principle of the Path, Stanley addresses the key questions that so many of us have asked ourselves: Why do our expectations about our future often go unmet? Why is it that smart people with admirable life goals often end up far from where they intended to be? Why do so many people start out with a clear picture of where they want to be relationally, financially, and professionally and yet years later find themselves far from their desired destination? Praise for The Principle of the Path: "As Billy Graham's son, and a preacher myself, I have seen firsthand the devastating consequences of choosing the wrong path in life. Andy Stanley writes about the importance of following the path that is set before us as stated in the Bible. May all who read these words be obedient in their daily walk with the Savior." --Franklin Graham President & CEO, Billy Graham Evangelistic Association and Samaritan's Purse "As a young man, I did a lot of stupid things. Those dumb decisions and bad behaviors led me straight into bankruptcy and heartache. But once I changed directions and started doing smart things with my life and money, I started winning. It's really that simple. If you don't want to learn this life-changing principle like I did—the hard way—then you need to read Andy Stanley’s The Principle of the Path. I just wish I had a copy of it twenty years ago!" --Dave Ramsey, host of The Dave Ramsey Show and best-selling author of Total Money Makeover
A comprehensive introduction to statistics that teaches the fundamentals with real-life scenarios, and covers histograms, quartiles, probability, Bayes' theorem, predictions, approximations, random samples, and related topics.
