Freight Analysis Framework Inter-regional Commodity Flow Forecast Study
Freight Analysis Framework Inter-regional Commodity Flow Forecast Study

Author: Richard Fullenbaum

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 70

ISBN-13:

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This technical report accompanies the 2012 base-year Freight Analysis Framework Forecasts (FAF4) submitted to the FHWA Office of Freight Management and Operations. The technical report outlines the data and methodology employed to develop freight forecasts using the 2012 base-year FAF data for 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and longterm forecasts in five-year increments from 2020 to 2045. This report also analyzes the resulting FAF4 forecasts, summarizing the observed trends and the outlook for domestic, imported, and exported goods movement for the United States. Included are detailed breakdowns by major commodity class and, for international trade, by key trade region. Three scenarios driven by different macroeconomic assumptions are analyzed and presented.

Interregional Commodity Flow Model Using Structural Equation Modeling
Interregional Commodity Flow Model Using Structural Equation Modeling

Author: Fatemeh Ranaiefar

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 133

ISBN-13: 9781303643460

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Freight forecasting models are data intensive and may require many explanatory variables to achieve prediction accuracy. One problem, particularly in the United States, is that public data sources are usually available only at highly aggregate geographic levels, while models with more disaggregate geographic levels are required for regional freight transportation planning. A second problem is that supply chain effects are often ignored or modeled with economic input-output models which lack explanatory power. This study addresses these challenges by considering a Structural Equation Modeling approach, that is not confined to a specific spatial structure as spatial regression models would be, and allows for correlations between industries. The goal of the proposed methodology is to design a reliable and policy sensitive modeling framework for long term commodity flow forecasting that makes the best use of public available data sources. Practicality and improvement over previously available freight generation and distribution models are the highlights of this approach. There are two primary developed in this study. The first one is a structural commodity generation model. The second model is the Structural Equations for Multi-Commodity OD Distribution (SEMCOD) model. The proposed framework is implemented as a primary module in California Statewide Freight Forecasting Model (CSFFM) and will be used to update the California Transportation Plan (CTP 2015). The models are specified and estimated based on FAF3 data. It is shown that the proposed modeling framework provides a better fit to the data than independent regression models for each commodity. The three components of the models are: direct and indirect effects, supply chain elasticities at zone level and at origin-destination level, and intra-zonal supply-demand interactions. A validation of the geographic scalability of the model is conducted using a zoning system consisting of 97 county or sub-county zones in California.

Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit
Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit

Author: Cambridge Systematics

Publisher: Transportation Research Board National Research

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 172

ISBN-13:

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Federal planning legislation and regulations now mandate that state departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations consider the needs of freight when planning and programming transportation investments. While there are standard techniques used to forecast the movement of people, less attention has been paid to forecasting freight movements, and there are consequently fewer standardized techniques that state and local agencies can adapt to their local situation. This Toolkit is designed to provide transportation planners with the information they need to prepare forecasts of freight transportation by highlighting techniques successfully developed by state agencies across the country.

Freight-demand Modeling to Support Public-sector Decision Making
Freight-demand Modeling to Support Public-sector Decision Making

Author: Cambridge Systematics

Publisher: Transportation Research Board

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 67

ISBN-13: 0309155134

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"This report presents an evaluation of possible improvements in freight demand models and other analysis tools and provides a guidebook to assist model developers in implementing these improvements. The report is especially valuable for its findings of general satisfaction with methods available to support freight planning, but concerns with the data available to support that planning. As such, the report focuses on ways to use existing data to develop data inputs for the model, showing that existing and readily available data can be used to develop the inputs required by freight models. The report will enable decision makers at a range of geographical levels to improve the usability of freight demand models."--Pub. desc.

Freight Transport Modeling in Emerging Countries
Freight Transport Modeling in Emerging Countries

Author: Ioanna Kourounioti

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2020-10-20

Total Pages: 294

ISBN-13: 0128216816

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Freight Transport Modeling in Emerging Countries examines freight transport models developed in emerging countries including Turkey, South Africa, India, Chile, and more. It provides a toolbox of successful freight transport model applications, alternative data collection methods, and evaluation techniques for the development of future policies. The book offers solutions for issues related to the urban, national, and international transportation of goods and examines new advances in freight transport models and data collection techniques and their applications in emerging countries. Emerging countries have unique transport-related policies, regulatory structures, logistics systems, and long-term uncertainties that hinder their economic development. This book tackles these issues by examining decision-making models for locating logistics sites such as ports and distribution centers, modeling urban freight movements in megacities and port cities, using existing datasets to get information when data is not available, implementing policies related to the national and international movements of goods, and more. Includes a wide variety of opinions and approaches from subject matter experts around the world Utilizes a case-based approach Includes a range of learning tools that feature chapter openers, end of chapter questions, a glossary, and more Examines new advances in freight transport models and data collection techniques

Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement
Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement

Author: Keith M. Chase

Publisher: Transportation Research Board

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 90

ISBN-13: 0309129427

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" TRB's second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Report S2-C20-RR-1: Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement documents the state of the practice for freight demand modeling. The report also explores the fundamental changes in freight modeling, and data and data collection that could help public and private sector decision-makers make better and more informed decisions. SHRP 2 Capacity Project C20, which produced Report S2-C20-RR-1, also produced the following items: A Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan, which outlines seven strategic objectives that are designed to serve as the basis for future innovation in freight travel demand forecasting and data, and to guide both near- and long-term implementation: A speaker's kit, which is intended to be a "starter" set of materials for use in presenting the freight modeling and data improvement strategic plan to a group of interested professionals; and; A 2010 Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling and Data Symposium " -- publisher's description