Three Essays on Real Options Analysis of Forestry Investments Under Stochastic Timber Prices
Three Essays on Real Options Analysis of Forestry Investments Under Stochastic Timber Prices

Author: Rajender Prasad Khajuria

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 248

ISBN-13: 9780494580202

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This thesis has applied the theory of real options to study forestry investment decision-making under stochastic timber prices. Suitable models have been developed for the stochastic timber prices, after addressing major issues in characterisation of the price process. First, the assumption of stochastic timber price process was based on detailed unit root tests, incorporating structural breaks in time-series analysis. The series was found to be stationary around shifting mean, justifying the assumption of mean reversion model. Due to shift in the mean, long-run mean to which the prices tended to revert could not be assumed constant. Accordingly, it was varied in discreet steps as per the breaks identified in the tests. The timber price series failed the normality test implying fat tails in the data. To account for these fat tails, 'jumps' were incorporated in the mean reversion model. The results showed that the option values for the jump model were higher than the mean reversion model and threshold levels for investment implied different optimal paths. Ignoring jumps could provide sub-optimal results leading to erroneous decisions. Second, the long-run mean to which prices reverted was assumed to shift continuously in a random manner. This was modeled through the incorporation of stochastic level and slope in the trend of the prices. Since the stochastic level and slope were not observable in reality, a Kalman-filter approach was used for the estimation of model parameters. The price forecasts from the model were used to estimate option values for the harvest investment decisions. Third, investment in a carbon sequestration project from managed forests was evaluated using real options, under timber price stochasticity. The option values and threshold levels for investment were estimated, under baseline and mitigation scenarios. Results indicated that carbon sequestration from managed forests might not be a viable investment alternative due to existing bottlenecks. Overall, the research stressed upon the need for market information and adaptive management, with a pro-active approach, for efficient investment decisions in forestry.

Forestland Investment
Forestland Investment

Author: Bin Mei

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Published: 2023-07-20

Total Pages: 231

ISBN-13: 1000883833

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Forestland investment has surged in the past few decades as a result of land ownership change in the forestry industry. Timberland investment and management organizations and real estate investment trusts have bought up land and resources that were divested by vertically integrated forest products companies. This book provides a seminal coverage of this seismic shift in the industry, exploring the philosophy, driving factors, valuation, theory, research, implementation, practice, and effects of forestland investment. Across 15 chapters the book reviews the history of forestland investment; discusses the optimal forest rotation; explains timberland appraisal; examines the return drivers of forestland; analyzes timberland index construction methods and results; prices timberland assets; reviews financial and real options; investigates real option values in forestland management; evaluates timber harvest contracts; examines new opportunities in the emerging woody bioenergy market; and eventually offers prospects on forestland investment in the future. It also discusses how forest carbon can be used as a nature-based climate solution. This book is essential reading for forestry business students and scholars, as well as practitioners and policymakers in the industry.

Timberland Investments
Timberland Investments

Author: F. Christian Zinkhan

Publisher: Timber Press (OR)

Published: 1992

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Common stock. Corporate bonds. Stock mutual funds. Call and put options. Commercial and residential real estate. Municipal bonds. These and others are the alternatives many individual and institutional investors consider when constructing their investment portfolios. This is the first book to investigate how another investment alternative--timberland--can fit into the portfolios of individuals and such institutions as pension funds. Timberland supplies the basic raw material for a critical global industry--forest products. Timber can be managed economically as a renewable crop on hundreds of millions of acres in the United States. Given the forces supporting conservation of forests in their natural state on many public and some private lands in the Unites States and other nations, there is increasing pressure on the remaining privately owned forests to supply the needed timber output. This represents an opportunity for patient, long-term investors. Using insights and graphic examples supplied by experienced institutional investors, professional foresters, forestry and financial researchers, and others, the authors address such questions as the following: How do timberland's investment characteristics compare to those associated with other portfolio alternatives? In addition to direct investments in forests, in what other ways can investors participate in the timberland market? Can the addition of timberland to some investors' diversified portfolios improve overall performance? What personal financial planning goals can be served by timberland? What acquisition, forest management, and sale strategies can be adopted by individual and institutional investors so that objectives are better achieved? In the course of addressing such questions, the authors attempt to bridge the communications gap between the investment and forestry communities. The authors provide valuable perspectives not only for individual and institutional investors, but also for personal financial advisors; forestry practitioners, policymakers and researchers; and students of forestry, real estate, and investments.

The Valuation of Forestry Resources Under Stochastic Prices & Inventories
The Valuation of Forestry Resources Under Stochastic Prices & Inventories

Author: Randall Morck

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

A contingent claims approach to capital budgeting may be preferable to traditional methods were uncertainty and managers' strategic reactions to changing conditions are important. As an example of such a case, we solve the classical problem of the duration of an investment in forestry resources (i.e., when to cut down the trees) in the general case of stochastic output prices and stochastic natural growth rate and timber inventories. A contingent claims approach is used to value the forestry resources as a function of: (1) stochastic prices and inventories, and (2) an asymmetric, optimal production policy that incorporates the option to halt timber production temporarily.

Risk Analysis in Forest Management
Risk Analysis in Forest Management

Author: Klaus von Gadow

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-06-29

Total Pages: 252

ISBN-13: 9401729050

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Due to the long-term planning horizons and the great variety of natural, economic, and operational hazards affecting forest ecosystems, uncertainty and multiple risk are typical aspects of forest management. Applications of risk analysis are surprisingly rare, in spite of the rich assortment of sophisticated forest planning tools that are available today. The objective of this particular volume within the book series Managing Forest Ecosystems is to present state-of-the-art research results, concepts, and techniques regarding the assessment and evaluation of natural hazards and the analysis of risk and uncertainty relating to forest management. Various aspects of risk analysis are covered, including examples of specific modelling tools. The book is divided into three sections covering ecological perspectives, applications in engineering and planning, and methods applicable to economics and policy.