This overview of issues that regulators should be aware of in demand forecasting discusses challenges that come with the decision to privatize transport, the perverse incentives introduced when privatization teams use strategic demand forecasts to evaluate assets, the most common problems with demand forecasting, the reasons that demand forecasting matters, and how to think about demand forecasting in the context of regulation.
This overview of issues that regulators should be aware of in demand forecasting discusses challenges that come with the decision to privatize transport, the perverse incentives introduced when privatization teams use strategic demand forecasts to evaluate assets, the most common problems with demand forecasting, the reasons that demand forecasting matters, and how to think about demand forecasting in the context of regulation. Forecasting has long been a challenge and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities available through the latest technology and software should allow much better forecasting than transport ministries or regulatory agencies typically observe. Privatization brings new needs for demand forecasting. More attention is paid to risk under privatization than when investments are publicly financed. And regulators must be able to judge traffic studies done by operators and to learn what strategic behavior influenced these studies. Many governments and regulators avoid good demand modeling out of lack of conviction that theory and models can do better than the "old hands" of the sector. This is dangerous when privatization changes the nature of business. For projects amounting to investments of $100-200 million, a cost of $100,000-200,000 is not a reason to reject a reasonable modeling effort. And some private forecasting firms are willing to sell guarantees or insurance with their forecasts to cover significant gaps between forecasts and reality. This paper - a product of the Governance, Regulation, and Finance Division, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to increase understanding of infrastructure regulation.
Modeling of Transport Demand explains the mechanisms of transport demand, from analysis to calculation and forecasting. Packed with strategies for forecasting future demand for all transport modes, the book helps readers assess the validity and accuracy of demand forecasts. Forecasting and evaluating transport demand is an essential task of transport professionals and researchers that affects the design, extension, operation, and maintenance of all transport infrastructures. Accurate demand forecasts are necessary for companies and government entities when planning future fleet size, human resource needs, revenues, expenses, and budgets. The operational and planning skills provided in Modeling of Transport Demand help readers solve the problems they face on a daily basis. Modeling of Transport Demand is written for researchers, professionals, undergraduate and graduate students at every stage in their careers, from novice to expert. The book assists those tasked with constructing qualitative models (based on executive judgment, Delphi, scenario writing, survey methods) or quantitative ones (based on statistical, time series, econometric, gravity, artificial neural network, and fuzzy methods) in choosing the most suitable solution for all types of transport applications. - Presents the most recent and relevant findings and research - both at theoretical and practical levels - of transport demand - Provides a theoretical analysis and formulations that are clearly presented for ease of understanding - Covers analysis for all modes of transportation - Includes case studies that present the most appropriate formulas and methods for finding solutions and evaluating results
This book provides an explanation of key underlying economic principles, enabling the reader to better understand the critical factors that structure and guide transport markets.
