This report provides an assessment of how governments can generate inclusive economic growth in the short term, while making progress towards climate goals to secure sustainable long-term growth. It describes the development pathways required to meet the Paris Agreement objectives.
We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.
This publication serves as a roadmap for exploring and managing climate risk in the U.S. financial system. It is the first major climate publication by a U.S. financial regulator. The central message is that U.S. financial regulators must recognize that climate change poses serious emerging risks to the U.S. financial system, and they should move urgently and decisively to measure, understand, and address these risks. Achieving this goal calls for strengthening regulators’ capabilities, expertise, and data and tools to better monitor, analyze, and quantify climate risks. It calls for working closely with the private sector to ensure that financial institutions and market participants do the same. And it calls for policy and regulatory choices that are flexible, open-ended, and adaptable to new information about climate change and its risks, based on close and iterative dialogue with the private sector. At the same time, the financial community should not simply be reactive—it should provide solutions. Regulators should recognize that the financial system can itself be a catalyst for investments that accelerate economic resilience and the transition to a net-zero emissions economy. Financial innovations, in the form of new financial products, services, and technologies, can help the U.S. economy better manage climate risk and help channel more capital into technologies essential for the transition. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5247742
Despite growing discussions on the relationship between sustainability and finance, so far little attention has been given to the relation linking sustainability-related risks and financial risks. Climate change, environmental degradation and social inequality, among others factors, may indeed have considerable adverse impacts on financial actors and markets, and even have the potential to harm financial stability. Shedding light on the importance of the nexus between sustainability and financial risks, this book addresses the need for new industry and policy approaches. With insights from a skilled set of scholars in the finance field, this edited collection explores the effects of climate risks on the banking and insurance industries, the problem of stranded assets, the possible corporate risk management frameworks that could be used to control sustainability-related risks, the role of non-financial disclosure in fostering market discipline, and the policy actions needed to integrate sustainability considerations into prudential supervision. Tackling an interdisciplinary topic, this book will appeal to academics and practitioners within the finance, business and sustainability fields.
Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
This report addresses the urgent issue of climate-related losses and damages. Climate change is driving fundamental changes to the planet with adverse impacts on human livelihoods and well-being, putting development gains at risk.
Praise for Carbon Finance "A timely, objective, and informative analysis of the financial opportunities and challenges presented by climate change, including a thorough description of adaptive measures and insurance products for managing risk in a carbon constrained economy." —James R. Evans, M. Eng. P. Geo., Senior Manager, Environmental Risk Management, RBC Financial Group "Climate change will have enormous financial implications in the years to come. How businesses and investors respond to the risks and opportunities from this issue will have an enormous rippling effect in the global economy. Sonia Labatt and Rodney White's insights and thoughtful analysis should be read by all who want to successfully navigate this global business issue." —Andrea Moffat, Director, Corporate Programs, Ceres "In Carbon Finance, Labatt and White present a clear and accessible description of the climate change debate and the carbon market that is developing. Climate change is becoming an important factor for many financial sector participants. The authors illustrate how challenges and opportunities will arise within the carbon market for banking, insurance, and investment activities as well as for the regulated and energy sector of the economy." —Charles E. Kennedy, Director and Portfolio Manager, MacDougall, MacDougall & MacTier Inc. "Climate change is the greatest environmental challenge of our generation. Its impact on the energy sector has implications for productivity and competitiveness. At the same time, environmental risk has emerged as a major challenge for corporations in the age of full disclosure. Carbon Finance explains how these disparate forces have spawned a range of financial products designed to help manage the inherent risk. It is necessary reading for corporate executives facing challenges that are unique in their business experience." —Skip Willis, Managing Director Canadian Operations, ICF International "In this timely publication, Labatt and White succeed in communicating the workings of carbon markets, providing simple examples and invaluable context to the new and changing mechanisms that underpin our transformation to a carbon-constrained world. Carbon Finance will be the definitive guide to this field for years to come." —Susan McGeachie, Director, Innovest Strategic Value Advisors, Graduate Faculty Member, University of Toronto; and Jane Ambachtsheer, Principal, Mercer Investment Consulting, Graduate Faculty Member, University of Toronto
Climate change affects virtually every aspect of the U.S. energy system. As climatic effects such as rising seas and extreme weather continue to appear across many geographies, U.S. energy infrastructure is increasingly at risk. The U.S. Gulf Coast--which is home to 44 percent of total U.S. oil refining capacity and several major ports--is highly vulnerable to flooding events and dangerous ocean surges during severe storms and hurricanes. The link between water availability and energy and electricity production creates another layer of risk to U.S. energy security. Climate risk could manifest not only in physical damages, but also in financial market failures. Climate change-related challenges could impede energy firms' access to capital markets or private insurance markets. Already, climate-related risks have created severe financial problems at a handful of U.S. energy firms, forcing them to interrupt their sales of energy to consumers in particular locations. Over time, climatic disruptions to domestic energy supply could entail huge economic losses and potentially require sizable domestic military mobilizations. The United States is ill prepared for this national security challenge, and public debate about emergency preparedness is virtually nonexistent. To explore the challenges of climate risk to the U.S. energy system and national security, the Council on Foreign Relations organized a two-day workshop in New York, on March 18 and 19, 2019. The gathering of fifty participants included current and former state and federal government officials and regulators, entrepreneurs, scientists, investors, financial- and corporate-sector leaders, credit agencies, insurers, nongovernmental organizations, and energy policy experts. During their deliberations, workshop participants explored how climate-related risks to U.S. energy infrastructure, financial markets, and national security could be measured, managed, and mitigated. Impact of Climate Risk on the Energy System summarizes the insights from this workshop and includes contributions from seven expert authors delving into related topics.
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role of macroeconomic and financial policy tools in enabling this transition. The literature provides a menu of policy tools for mitigation. A key conclusion is that fiscal tools are first in line and central, but can and may need to be complemented by financial and monetary policy instruments. Some tools and policies raise unanswered questions about policy tool assignment and mandates, which we describe. The literature is scarce, however, on the most effective policy mix and the role of mitigation tools and goals in the overall policy framework.